Exports from Minneapolis Fed district states to the four major markets involved in trade wars with the United States fell by more than $1 billion in the first four months of 2019 compared with the same months in 2018.
That’s a decrease of 4 percent, though some states and some markets were hit harder than others, Census Bureau data show.
In general, as could be expected, categories of goods that include those targeted by Chinese, Canadian, Mexican, and European Union retaliatory tariffs lost ground compared with categories that don’t.
In dollar terms, Minnesota exports to China and Canada suffered the most in the first four months of the year, shrinking $68.2 million and $67 million, respectively. That’s down 9 percent and 4 percent.
Goods targeted by China were down 14 percent, led by soybeans, and untargeted goods were up 18 percent. Goods targeted by Canada were down 2 percent, while untargeted goods were down 5 percent.
Exports to the EU and Mexico grew $95.3 million and $92.2 million, respectively. That’s up 6 percent and 13 percent. Targeted goods were down double digits, but the much larger volume of untargeted goods more than made up for it.
Only Montana’s exports to China shrank, down $9.5 million or 24 percent. Targeted goods were down 25 percent, led by subbituminous coal, while untargeted goods were down 11 percent.
Exports to the EU grew the most, up $40.1 million or 62 percent. Targeted goods were down 57 percent, and untargeted goods up 62 percent. Exports to Canada and Mexico followed the same pattern, growing $13 million and $6.4 million, respectively. That’s up 12 percent and 47 percent.
These data exclude cigarettes, the biggest Montana export. They’re not made there, just packaged for export to Canada.
Wisconsin exports to China dipped $134.3 million. That’s down 25 percent. Targeted goods were down 18 percent, while untargeted goods were down 63 percent. Whey was among the hardest hit targeted goods that are made in parts of the state located in the Ninth District.
Exports to Canada and the EU were also hammered, shrinking $84.5 million and $54.3 million, respectively. That’s down 4 percent for both. Targeted and untargeted goods were both down, but targeted goods were down a lot more.
Exports to Mexico grew $47.4 million, up 4 percent. Targeted goods were down 35 percent, while untargeted goods were up 6 percent.
Exports to Canada fell $28.5 million, down 15 percent. Ethanol, which was not targeted by tariffs, was hit hardest. Aluminum alloys were the hardest hit targeted goods.
Exports to the EU and China also shrank $8.5 million and $7.5 million, respectively. That’s down 14 percent and 42 percent. Exports to Mexico were almost unchanged, shrinking just $18,000.
Targeted goods suffered a lot in all cases, down as much as 79 percent in exports to the EU. Untargeted goods suffered to a lesser extent in exports to Canada and the EU but did well with China and Mexico.
Exports to Canada dropped $52.5 million, or 10 percent. Steel products were among the hardest hit targeted goods.
Exports to Mexico, the EU, and China shrank $20.5 million, $5.2 million, and $4.6 million, respectively. That’s down 23 percent, 6 percent, and 53 percent.
Both targeted and untargeted goods were hit, but targeted goods were hit harder, down as much as 72 percent in exports to Canada.
These data exclude oil products, particularly crude oil and diluents, which are vastly exaggerated by Census data.
The worst-performing export markets were Canada and Mexico, which saw reductions of $673.4 million and $303.2 million, respectively. That’s down 8 percent and 7 percent. Auto parts, which were not targeted, were especially hurt. In percentage terms, targeted goods did a lot worse in both markets, but untargeted goods were so much bigger that smaller shifts can mean big dollar amounts.
Some auto parts manufacturers are located in the Upper Peninsula, the only part of the state in the Minneapolis Fed’s Ninth District.
Exports to China shrank $87.1 million, down 8 percent. Exports to the EU grew $166.3 million, up 7 percent.