July 18, 1972
Because of the holiday, the number of responses to our regular survey was considerably less than normal, and the results should be read with this in mind. Although the uptrend in District business activity reported in recent surveys continues, manufacturers report some decline in shipments, new orders, and backlogs of orders. Further increases in retail sales—especially automobile sales—are reported. Employment and hours worked per week in the manufacturing sector are reported as increasing. District bankers also report increases in employment. Construction activity continues to increase, and bankers report increases in the demand for all types of loans. In general, businessmen and bankers are optimistic about the outlook for economic activity in the District.
Responses from manufacturers indicate some decline in shipments, volume of new orders, and backlogs of orders. Declines were reported by producers in such important District industries as chemicals and synthetic fibers. Manufacturers report little change in inventories, and inventory levels relative to desired levels are rated as about right by most manufacturing respondents. On balance, current plant and equipment capacity is reported to be inadequate.
Both banking and retail respondents report continued increases in sales. Reports from bankers indicate that automobile sales are especially strong. Twelve of 16 bankers reported increases in automobile sales in their areas, and the remainder reported no change. Trade and service respondents indicate no change in inventories.
In general, manufacturing respondents report increases in both employment and hours worked per week while trade and service respondents report little change. Both trade and service and manufacturing respondents reported increases in wages paid. Prices received are reported as down in manufacturing and unchanged in trade and services.
Bankers report that activity in residential and nonresidential construction continues strong. Approximately one-half of the banking respondents reported increases in construction activity. Bankers report that the demand for all types of loans remains strong, with the demand for consumer and mortgage loans being especially strong.
Cool weather and excessive rainfall are reported to have caused substantial damage to agricultural crops in the District. Many farms and other businesses also suffered severe damage from the recent flood.
Bankers and businessmen in the District continue to be optimistic about the outlook for District business activity. More than 80 percent of the banking respondents report that they expect business activity in their area to increase in the next three months.