The energy crisis has not yet forced substantial cutbacks in District economic activity, but businessmen are concerned about the future. In addition, other materials besides fuel are in short supply and delivery times are being stretched out. District retailers enjoyed a good Christmas season, with sales generally up to expectations. Several bank directors expect a decline in home building in their areas in 1974.

Although a number of District layoffs have been attributed to the energy crisis, fuel shortages have not yet seriously disrupted District economic activity, and mild fourth-quarter weather has lessened the threat of heating-fuel shortages. District businessmen, however, remain concerned about how the energy crisis will affect their operations. A director associated with retail trade said that his firm has had enough fuel for its regular operations, but he felt it was too early to assess the impact of gasoline shortages on consumer shopping habits. Another director reported some concern in his community about employees having adequate gasoline to commute to work. Also, in his community a firm producing plastic parts for cars was concerned about automobile sales declining in 1974. According to another director, the fuel crisis has not yet directly affected sewer and highway building, but uncertainty over prices is making contractors hesitant to bid on projects. A Montana director indicated that there was no lack of gasoline in his area; he believed that a considerable amount of gasoline is being stored by consumers and businessmen.

A survey of nine ski resorts located away from the District's major population centers indicated that the energy crisis did not hurt their holiday business. Only one ski area reported poor business during the Christmas-New Year period and, in general, ski-area operators look for business to remain good for the remainder of the season. No shortage of gasoline existed in any of the areas surveyed. Several operators indicated, however, that business from local customers was up, while customers who had to travel any distance were staying away. The concern in the resort and travel industry appears to be shifting from the fuel shortage's impact on winter recreational activities to the summer tourist business. A lack of gasoline this summer as well as the possibility of rationing could seriously hamper the District's tourist industry.

Directors indicated that other materials besides fuel are becoming difficult to obtain. A plastic resins shortage has forced one director's firm to curb some operations. Other directors reported no shortages in their areas but stated that delivery times are being stretched out. A Montana director has had to wait over a year to obtain farm machinery and remains uncertain as to when this machinery will be shipped.

Many District retailers enjoyed a good Christmas season, as sales exceeded earlier expectations. Major Minneapolis-St. Paul retailers responding to a newspaper survey indicated that December sales were up from a year ago, and most stores equaled or surpassed their sales expectations. Furthermore, a director who heads a major retailing organization reported that, after some softening in sales growth last fall, his firm's relative year-to-year sales gain in December came close to matching the larger increases achieved earlier in the year. A North Dakota director termed his area's Christmas spending "great" due to high farm incomes. A Wisconsin director reported "excellent" Christmas business in his community, and a Montana director termed Christmas spending "good" in his area. On the other hand, an Upper Peninsula director said Christmas sales in his area only equaled year-earlier levels, while a Minnesota director from outside the Twin Cities indicated his area's Christmas sales were not up to expectations. Major Minneapolis-St. Paul retailers are uncertain about the future, and most look for modest sales gains in 1974.

The number of new District housing units authorized during the first eleven months of 1973 was down 22 percent from a year earlier, and several directors look for declines in their areas residential building in 1974. A director from the Upper Peninsula of Michigan indicated that a scarcity of fuel for heating homes was expected to curb his area's residential construction, while two other directors indicated the availability and cost of mortgage money would hurt their areas' home building. A North Dakota director, on the other hand, stated that the outlook for home building in his area was good. In addition, the apartment vacancy rate in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area in November was 5.6 percent, compared with 8.9 percent last February, which indicates District apartment construction may improve later this year.