Results of our most recent survey of businessmen suggest that business activity in the District has experienced some moderation in recent weeks, although it remains at a high level. In the manufacturing sector both employment and hours worked per week have declined, and recent increases in retail sales have not been up to those registered earlier in the year. Survey respondents, in general, remain pessimistic about the outlook for business activity during the next six months.

Manufacturing activity in the District continues at a high level, although a number of survey respondents report some slowing in recent weeks. Our latest survey shows little or no change in shipments and new orders and a decline in backlogs. Raw material shortages and uncertainty over the energy situation continue as major problems facing manufacturers. The diffusion of manufacturers' responses indicate that materials inventories increased slightly in recent weeks, while finished goods inventories declined slightly. More than one third of the respondents reported that inventories were below desired levels.

Judging from the results of our survey, employment in the District apparently declined slightly during the past month. Manufacturing respondents indicated a small decline, while retailers reported employment unchanged. Hours worked per week were down appreciably in manufacturing, however, with nearly one third of the respondents reporting a decline. Scattered layoffs related to the energy crisis continue to be reported.

Further increases in prices were reported by the majority of both manufacturing and retail respondents. More than 80 percent of the manufacturers reported higher prices paid, and one third reported higher prices received. Increases in prices paid were reported by 100 percent of the retailers, and 60 percent indicated increases in prices received.

Reports from major District retailers suggest that retail sales remain strong. Most retailers report increases in sales during the past month, although the increases were generally less than those registered earlier in the year. Reports from directors and other sources indicate that motel occupancy along Interstate 95, running through Virginia and the Carolinas, is down substantially. Motels and other tourist-related businesses are expected to be hurt by the gasoline situation.

The experience of large commercial banks in the District suggest that the demand for all types of loans has increased in recent weeks.

The 1973 farm income situation continued to show improvement as the marketing season progressed, with January-October cash receipts registering gains over a year ago of 27 percent in the District and 37 percent nationally.

Most survey respondents continue to express pessimism about the economic outlook. More than three fourths believe that the level of business activity nationally will worsen during the next six months, and more than 40 percent believe that local business activity will decline.