Beige Book Report: Philadelphia
September 9, 1980
Reports from the Third District indicate that business activity in the month of September is sluggish, but hold some hope for improvement. Manufacturers indicate a slight increase in overall industrial activity, the first in over a year, but are still playing a close hand, cutting inventories and payrolls, albeit marginally. Local manufacturers also report continued inflation with no foreseeable relief within the next six months. Retailers say September sales are about even with a year ago, but write off the slowness to a late summer heat wave. District bankers report C&I loan volume to be up from last September, but say consumer loans are slightly off.
As for the future, representatives of the industrial sector expect a major upswing within the next six months. Retailers are also planning for recovery, but remain more cautious than the manufacturers. Contacts in the financial sector are forecasting increased loan volume as the economy picks up, but disagree on exactly where interest rates are heading.
Manufacturing Activity
Area manufacturers responding to the September Business Outlook
Survey report a marginal increase in industrial activity this month.
This increase, although very small, is the first noted in fourteen
months, and may signal the end of the downward trend in general
business. (Survey respondents have been forecasting a pickup since
March.) Specific indicators of business activity also offer some
hope. New orders, although off fractionally in September, look
better than at any other time this year, and shipments have held
steady for the first time since January. Moreover, manufacturers'
inventories, which have been cut significantly six times in 1980
according to the survey, also appear to be stabilizing, and are down
only marginally in September. The same is true of District
industrial payrolls, which have been shrinking steadily since May.
Manufacturing executives have, however, continued to shorten working
hours.
Looking ahead to the next six months, survey respondents are projecting a strong boost for industrial activity, marked by steep increases in new orders and shipments and swelling producers' backlogs. To meet the renewed demand, manufacturers plan to increase inventories, lengthen the workweek, and add new employees by next March. Increased expenditures on plant and equipment are also forecast, as the expected recovery gets underway.
On the inflation front, industrial prices are up again in September, as 55 percent of the survey respondents report paying more for raw materials than they did last month, and about one-quarter are charging higher prices for their finished products. For the longer term, over 90 percent anticipate higher input costs six months from now, and over 70 percent plan price hikes for their finished goods.
Retail Activity
Area retailers report this month's sales to be flat to slightly off
as compared to year-ago levels. Local merchants note, however, that
their fall line is in and is not expected to sell until the hot
weather breaks. Therefore, sales levels are comparable with
expectations and inventory-sales ratios are still considered
healthy. Credit sales appear to be picking up as the economy is
perceived to begin its move out of the current recession.
Local department store executives are projecting a marginal increase in sales as they head into the Christmas season, but continue to plan cautiously. No changes are planned for future inventories. This year's Christmas season is expected to be fair to good, but definitely "not a banner year."
Financial Activity
Area bankers contacted this month report mixed activity in August.
Reports of C&I loan volume vary, ranging from 0 to 12 percent over
September '79 figures, slightly below plan for the most part.
Consumer loans, however, are down slightly, by 1 to 3 percent.
Looking ahead to the next six months, bankers expect the economy to
begin its gradual recovery and are therefore projecting a moderate
increase, up to 7 percent, in loan volume.
Banks in the Third District are currently quoting prime rates of 11 1/2 and 12 percent. Projections of the prime rate are mixed as some contacts expect the forecasted first quarter recovery and concurrent "easy money" to drop the prime rate to between 10 and 11 percent. Others foresee a slight increase to 12 to 13 percent.
Deposits are generally up over last year's levels, although saving certificates are reported to be flat. All deposits are below budget, though.