Beige Book Report: Cleveland
February 2, 1983
Summary
Economic conditions remain dismal in the Fourth District
but scattered signs suggest the bottom may be near. Unemployment is
high and rising. Leading indicators and survey results suggest
manufacturing activity may have reached its trough. Parts orders
from the automotive industry are showing strength. Inventories
probably have not yet bottomed. The steel industry remains in
difficulty, but orders have improved recently. Retail sales were
strong in January, but bank loan demand is mixed. Some gains are
reported in construction but farmers continue in difficulty.
Labor Market Conditions
Unemployment is extremely high and
continued to rise through December. The December unemployment rate
was 14.5 percent (sa) in Ohio and 12.9 percent in Pennsylvania. The
District's eleven major SMSAs' unemployment rates (nsa) in November
ranged from 9.4 percent in Columbus to 22.5 percent in Youngstown,
and averaged 3.3 percentage points above the national rate. Ohio's
employment is down 11 percent from a year ago in durable goods
manufacturing and 5 percent in non-durable goods manufacturing. Some
scattered rehiring is reported in consumer durable goods industries
and primary metals, but additional plant closings continue to be
announced.
Outlook
Leading indicators suggest a further decline in economic
activity in Pittsburgh but a bottoming in Cleveland. An index of
leading indicators for the Pittsburgh area registered a tiny
increase in November following 17 consecutive monthly declines. A
similar index for the Cleveland area drifted down in October and
November to a level only slightly above its April 1982 low.
Manufacturing
Manufacturing activity may have reached its trough.
This bank's survey of Fourth District manufacturers shows firms
expected new orders and backlogs to increase in January after having
been unchanged in December. Shipments were expected to rise after
having fallen in December. Inventories were expected to fall after
having been unchanged in December. Employment and hours worked were
expected to rise slightly after having fallen substantially in
December. A survey of Cleveland area purchasing managers shows new
orders are flat while production and employment are falling less
rapidly than a month ago. The survey shows inventories of raw
materials, supplies, and finished goods continue to decline.
Capital Goods
Parts orders from the automotive industry are showing
strength but capital goods industries are generally flat, and
inventories probably have bottomed. A major producer of parts for
the capital equipment industry describes its inventories as
"extremely lean" and "below normal even considering the low level of
sales". The firm says inventories "can't be cut further". Rather
than rebuild inventories in anticipation of sales, the firm plans to
"scramble to fill orders as they arise". The need to scramble will
be strongest in auto parts, where demand is coming back sharply, and
to a lesser extent in truck parts. Heavy duty truck orders bottomed
last July and have been showing some strength in the last few weeks.
In contrast, no turnaround is in sight for agricultural and construction equipment. The firm does expect a turnaround next summer in orders for equipment to manufacture electronic components for personal computers and defense items, because their customers' order backlogs are rising now. The firm is building a bit of inventory now in anticipation of that summer upturn. The company will recall small numbers of employees to its auto parts plants this quarter, and expects a large increase in employment in a plant that makes defense electronics equipment.
Another supplier to capital goods producers reports orders are increasing. Orders for refrigeration equipment components are up strongly in the last two months to 40 percent above the year-ago level. Orders for gaskets and seals for transportation and non- electrical machinery are also up in the last two months. A division that supplies the machine tool industry remains flat at a very low level. Orders for automotive aftermarket and aerospace remain flat. Inventories will be increased some in the two divisions with strong orders but this will be more than offset by continued reductions of inventories in the other lines.
A major producer of bearings reports a modest upturn in orders in the last three to four weeks, most notably from the automobile industry but some also from other industries. Nevertheless the firm will continue to reduce inventories this quarter, although at a slower pace than in fourth quarter. The firm expects their employment to be flat this quarter.
Steel
The steel industry remains in great difficulty. Producers
continue to operate at very low rates and to report large losses. In
continuing efforts to cut costs, additional production facilities
have been closed, and a major firm has imposed its second 5% cut in
non-union salaries in seven months. However, signs of improvement in
orders and production have surfaced in recent weeks. A large steel
producer that has been operating at only 30 percent of capacity
reports a late January surge in orders from the automobile and
construction industries at a rate equivalent to 60 percent of
operating capacity.
Retail Sales
A major department store chain reports strong January
sales. The firm's real sales are up about 2 1/2 percent (quarterly
rate) in the November-January fourth fiscal quarter from the third
quarter. January sales apparently held at the November-December
level, without seasonal adjustment and without unusual promotions.
The retailer views this development as a "fundamental upswing" in
demand. The chain's inventories are lean in all lines and the ratio
of inventory to sales is lower than anytime since early 1981. No
inventory building is planned for first quarter but there may be an
unplanned inventory runoff if their suppliers can't keep pace with
sales.
Agriculture
Farmers continue in difficulty. An estimated 5% of Ohio
farmers are on the brink of bankruptcy or foreclosure because of low
crop prices, high interest rates, and falling land prices. Another
5% are in difficulty but are being carried by their lenders, and
another 15% will be in similar difficulty if low crop prices persist
this year. Two directors express concern that the proposed crop swap
program would hurt livestock producers and suppliers of agricultural
fertilizers, pesticides, seed, and machinery.
Construction
Some pickup in house sales and construction is
reported. The stock market rise has strengthened the market for
second homes. A construction company reports increased contracts and
requests for bids on $25-100 million size projects for local
governments.
Commercial Banking
Loan demand is mixed. A large Cleveland bank
reports a decrease in commercial loan demand in the last eight
weeks, but lending officers expect improvement. Residential mortgage
lending is showing a very small increase recently, but consumer
lending is flat. Smaller banks report increases in consumer loan
demand in response to lower interest rates. Banks in Cleveland have
aggressively marketed the money market demand account and are having
a strong response, but marketing of the Super-NOW account has not
been aggressive.