Beige Book Report: Cleveland
June 24, 1986
Summary
The Fourth District economy continues its pattern of slow growth
with weakness in manufacturing and energy and strength in housing.
Retail sales are a bit better than last quarter. Unemployment
remains above the national level despite employment growing faster
than nationally during the last twelve months. Manufacturing
activity continues to be sluggish, and the energy industry is
depressed. Housing activity is robust. Real estate and consumer
installment lending is strong but commercial and industrial lending
is down.
Consumer Spending
Retailers in the District report generally better sales in the
second quarter than in the first quarter. Although two major
department store chains differ in the amount of increase during the
current quarter, they both agreed that first quarter sales were
below plans and the sales in the past two months have improved.
General merchandise inventories are reported to be at normal levels.
Charge sales at department stores appear to be increasing as a
percent of total sales and one firm noted a significant increase in
delinquent accounts since the beginning of this year. Retailers
reported that imported prices have increased very little in response
to dollar depreciation, although one expects price increases in the
third or fourth quarters.
Area auto dealers reported much the same story as other retailers. Sales in recent months have been better than the first quarter, but still well below levels of last year. Inventory levels at domestic auto dealers range from slightly above normal to "heavy," but only one dealer expressed any concern over inventories. None of the dealers contacted expected additional near-term price increases, but did mention that past increases have been completely passed on to the consumer.
Labor Market Conditions
Relative to a year earlier, Ohio employment in May has risen by 2.55
percent, somewhat better than the national gain of 2.03 percent.
Nevertheless, the unemployment rate in Ohio was unchanged from its
year earlier level and at 8.1 percent (s.a.) remains well above the
national rate.
Manufacturing
Manufacturing activity continues to be sluggish. Manufacturers in
this District report new orders continue to grow but at a
substantially slower pace than in April. The pace of production was
also slower than in April. Order backlogs are up slightly after
several months of decline. Employment in manufacturing appears on
balance to be flat. Inventories of raw materials and finished goods
continue their slow decline. Prices paid by manufacturers for
commodities, components and equipment rose much more rapidly in May
than they have in the last year or so. A major steel producer in
this District has laid off several hundred production workers, in
large measure because of weak demand from the oil and gas industry.
The firm expects the workers to be out of work at least throughout
the summer.
Energy
Coal, oil, and natural gas industries in this District are
depressed. A major oil firm expects crude oil prices to fluctuate
between $12 and $18 per barrel and to average $15 per barrel over
the next three or four years. The firm has cut its exploration
budget by almost 60 percent from last year and would cut it further
except that active drilling projects can't be cancelled. Total
capital expenditures are being cut by about one-third from last
year.
Housing and Construction
The pace of housing activity in the Fourth District is high and
builders, real estate brokers, and mortgage lenders all expect that
the strong first-half pace will persist for the balance of 1986.
However, there is a general consensus among market participants that
lower mortgage rates would probably be required for the high level
of housing construction to be sustained into 1987.
Real estate brokers continue to complain that a typical mortgage loan application now requires more than 60 days to process. Apparently, mortgage lenders are understaffed but do not expect the high mortgage volume to last long enough to justify expanding staff. Mortgage lenders are accommodating the longer processing times by extending their loan commitments from the standard 30 days to 60 days. Long processing times are not causing a higher level of application cancellations. So far, the suspension of the FHA mortgage-insurance program has had no visible effect on mortgage markets in this region, and FHA lending still represents approximately 12-15 percent of total mortgage applications.
In late May, mortgage lenders increased their mortgage charges slightly by increasing closing points by 1 point and adding 1/4 to 1/2 percentage point to the mortgage rate. The 15-year mortgage is becoming less popular as borrowers return to the 30-year mortgage. The adjustable rate mortgage also continues to lose favor, falling to less than 10 percent of new loans by many lenders in this District.
Commercial Banking
Overall loan demand continues to be flat at District banks. Total
loans outstanding at large banks fell slightly over the last month
even though real estate and consumer installment loans rose at a
double-digit pace. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
contracted somewhat, reflecting softness in the demand for business
loans. Other types of loans also fell at large District banks.
Lenders do not anticipate any significant pickup in business loan
demand over the next few months, but they do expect relatively good
growth in consumer installment and real estate loans.