Beige Book Report: Cleveland
December 1, 1986
Summary
The regional economy showed slight improvement during October.
Production and new orders are up in some major cities in the
district, and both manufacturing and nonmanufacturing employment
continue to increase. Other economic indicators are mixed: retail
sales have picked up, mostly in household and soft goods; housing
starts are progressing at a moderate pace; but auto sales have
fallen dramatically. A number of the respondents characterize their
local economies as weakly healthy.
Retail Sales
Retail sales picked up slightly from a slow September pace but were
unevenly distributed throughout the fourth district and across
product lines. Major retailers report that sales in their Pittsburgh
outlets improved more than in many of their Ohio outlets. Sales of
major appliances have tapered off in the past 6 weeks, while
furniture, home furnishings, and soft goods show strong gains
relative to other areas of the country. Inventories are reported to
be at normal levels. Retailers claim that prospects for the holiday
season have improved some, and they expect sales increases between 5
to 7 percent over last year.
Domestic automobile sales in the fourth district have generally followed national trends in which sales dipped sharply after incentive programs expired. Inventories at non-GMC dealers remain on the low side, especially on small cars. GM dealers report that inventories are manageable, but this appears to be due to their reluctance to order large quantities of new models. Import dealers report mixed sales, but all state that inventory levels are rising.
Labor Markets
Ohio's unemployment rate dropped dramatically in October, from a
seasonally adjusted rate of 8.5 percent (in September) to 7.7
percent. The decline is due in part to an increase in employment of
75,000 jobs.
The service sector appears to account for much of this growth. Over the past year, service industry employment increased by 7.0 percent, compared to 4.7 percent for services in the U.S. Overall employment grew by 3.0 in Ohio and 2.4 percent in the U.S. Business service industries were particularly strong in Ohio over the year, expanding employment by 13.2 percent.
Fourth quarter 1986 employment projections by Cleveland employers suggest that these employment trends will continue for the rest of the year.
Manufacturing
Manufacturing employment in the fourth district increased by roughly
.3 percent during September, although employment is still below the
level achieved a year ago. The recent employment growth was shared
by most metropolitan areas in the district, with the notable
exception of Pittsburgh. Average weekly hours and earnings are up
slightly over last month.
Manufacturers report an increase in new orders, production, and prices but constant inventory levels during October. Part of the increase in production is attributed to the beginning of production of new car models. However, a current strike at a GM facility has caused the shutdown of operations of a number of assembly plants in the district, in addition, GM recently announced that two large assembly plants employing 6,400 workers in the Cincinnati area will be closed by 1990.
Steel production in the fourth district continues to increase modestly, despite the continued shutdown of USX. Raw steel production in the first part of November was 13 percent above the pre-strike level. Falling inventory levels have now reached their lowest level in two years. Capacity utilization is still relatively low at 58 percent. Specialty steel production is also up. One customized steel finishing company reports that they are fully booked through December and overbooked through January.
Housing
The slowdown in Midwestern housing markets has tapered off. Housing
starts and sales are increasing at a healthy but moderate pace.
Many midwestern mortgage borrowers prefer to lock in currently low mortgage rates, apparently because they perceive the current level of mortgage rates to be the trough in long-term rates for this economic cycle. Nonetheless, the adjustable rate mortgage is growing in popularity.
Banking
Loan demand has risen slightly at district banks. Loans outstanding
in all major categories at large banks increased in October.
Continued strength in the demand for real estate and consumer
installment loans accounts for most of the overall loan growth. Both
real estate and installment loans rose at an annual rate of 20
percent. Marginal increases in commercial and industrial loans
outstanding in October represented an improvement over the lack of
business loan growth in the third quarter.