Beige Book Report: Philadelphia
September 19, 1990
Economic activity in the Third District appeared to be slowing across the board in August and early September. Manufacturers reported a continuing decline in business, leading them to trim employment. Retailers generally indicated that sales in August fell from the prior month and year, and they said that the slowdown was continuing in September. Bankers reported a decline in overall lending triggered by a falloff in business and real estate lending; consumer lending continued to increase, but the pace of growth was slackening.
Business contacts expect the downward trend in business to continue. For the most part, they do not have positive views regardless of the outcome of the Middle East crisis. Manufacturers forecast declining activity over the next six months, and they plan to trim capital spending and to make more cuts in employment. Retailers say consumer confidence is ebbing, and they expect consumer spending this fall to drop below the year-ago level, in real terms. Bankers anticipate continued declines in business and real estate lending, and they expect consumer loan growth to slacken further. In general, bankers expect business to decline well into next year.
Manufacturing
According to Third District manufacturers contacted in late August
business was generally declining. Half of the firms queried reported
a drop in activity, and almost half indicated that business was
flat; very few were experiencing improvement. Among the major
manufacturing industries in the district, slowing business was
reported by producers of lumber, rubber and plastics, primary
metals, nonelectrical machinery, and transportation equipment.
Business was generally steady for makers of apparel, textiles,
electrical machinery, and fabricated metal products. Improvement was
common only among chemical companies and producers of stone, clay,
and glass products.
For the Third District manufacturing sector as a whole, shipments and orders were declining, prompting area firms to cut working hours and payrolls. In particular, makers of consumer goods reported that cutbacks in orders from retailers were becoming more widespread. Despite the drop in activity, inventories were edging down, overall.
The balance of opinion among Third District manufacturers contacted in late August is that business will continue to ease over the next two quarters. Overall, area firms plan to make further reductions in employment over the fall and winter months, and they plan to trim capital spending.
Despite their assessment that business is slowing, and will continue to do so, manufacturers reported spreading increases in input prices, and they expect further hikes. Most indicated that cost increases, current and anticipated, are for specialized inputs used directly in the production of the goods they make, and not necessarily for petroleum-based materials or for energy.
Retail
Third District retailers contacted in early September generally
indicated that sales in August slowed from their early summer rate
and that the dollar volume of sales for the month was below that of
August of last year. Most also said that sales in the first week of
September were below the year-ago period. According to merchants the
slowdown has affected all categories of goods, including back- to-
school merchandise.
Retailers said they believe consumer confidence is ebbing, and they expect the rest of the fall season to be slow. The consensus of forecasts is that sales through the rest of the year, in current dollars, will only equal the year-earlier period. Store officials did not express concern about current inventory levels, but they were being very cautious in their orders to suppliers, and they said extensive price markdowns are a possibility later in the season if consumer spending declines much further.
Finance
Total loan volume outstanding at major Third District banks has
declined since mid-July, and bankers contacted in early September
said the downtrend was continuing. Commercial and industrial lending
was edging down, according to bank loan officers, partly due to
implementation of tighter credit standards but mainly because of a
falloff in demand for business credit. Real estate loan volume was
declining as payoffs reduced outstandings at area banks while they
were booking virtually no new real estate-based loans except home
equity credit lines. Bankers generally reported increases in
personal lending, but they said the rate of growth appeared to be
slipping. Auto loans were declining at most banks, while credit card
lending was described as flat to up slightly by bankers.
Looking ahead, Third District bankers expect total loan volume to continue to fall. Several banks noted that requests for business financing, especially for capital investment, were tapering off. Most of the bankers contacted said they anticipate flat or declining economic activity through the rest of this year and into next, and they expect business lending to shrink over the same time period. They also expect real estate lending to continue to fade, and they anticipate slackening consumer loan demand.