Beige Book Report: St Louis
May 4, 1994
Summary
The District economy has expanded robustly in recent months with
many firms reporting expansions, additions to payrolls and increases
in sales. Auto manufacturers in particular report booming activity,
and expect to increase auto production employment in St. Louis to
the highest level since 1989. Input price pressures remain muted for
many firms. In a recent survey of District small businesses, about
30 percent believe economic conditions will improve further during
the next quarter. The District's real estate sector remains in high
gear, as evidenced by double-digit increases in building permits and
frequent assessments that homes available for sale are in short
supply. Loan demand, especially for consumer loans, continues to
pick up at area banks. Fertilizer prices have risen dramatically
from year-ago levels.
Manufacturing and Other Business Activity
District firms, particularly manufacturing firms, report healthy
growth, citing plant expansions and new hirings. Announcements of
expansions by two of the three auto makers in St. Louis will boost
the region's auto production significantly. One firm will reopen its
second plant to build pickup trucks and minivans. The other firm
will build both minivans and sport utility vehicles in the same
plant. Reports are that these moves, along with the third auto
firm's plant reopening in 1995 to build full-size vans, will bring
St. Louis auto production employment to 15,000, its highest level
since 1989.
A St. Louis-based defense contractor received the Administration's approval to sell fighter jets to Israel, guaranteeing about 5,000 jobs through mid-1998. One of the nation's largest trucking companies is hiring 300 more drivers for its Memphis terminal to meet higher demand. A maker of screen-printed T-shirts in Louisville will add 220 workers because of increased demand. A maker of refrigeration compressors in northwest Mississippi will add 400 workers as it undergoes an $80 million expansion. An Arkansas poultry processor selected Pine Bluff for its first of four new plants to be built, bringing another 400 jobs into the area.
Firms in northeast Arkansas and northwestern Tennessee also report growth. For example, a building supplies company reports a 10 percent year-to-date sales increase over last year, and a metal salvage company reports year-to-date revenues up 40 percent over last year. A conveyor manufacturer and a caster manufacturer report year-to-date sales increases of between 3 percent and 5 percent over last year.
There were, however, also some reports of layoffs. An apparel maker is letting 250 workers go from its Arkansas plant because of cuts in production. A paper products maker sold its Memphis plant to another firm, resulting in the loss of 650 jobs. A shoe manufacturer will lay off 350 employees from its Missouri plant; about 100 of these workers will be offered positions at other plants, though.
A recent National Federation of Independent Businesses survey of District firms reveals that about 19 percent think now is a good time to expand and about 30 percent believe general economic conditions will improve during the next quarter. During the first quarter, 14 percent increased employment, and 20 percent plan to increase employment this quarter.
Prices
According to the aforementioned NFIB survey, about 17 percent of
small firms reported price increases during the first quarter of the
year, while nearly 30 percent plan to increase their prices this
quarter. Elsewhere, an informal survey of several mostly large
Eighth District firms suggests that, in general, cost pressures
remain modest to nonexistent. A large appliance manufacturer, for
example, reports that it continues to resist price pressures from
its suppliers where possible; this behavior was also noted by other
firms. A few firms reported that prices of important raw materials-
for example, steel, aluminum and certain petrochemicals-have
increased recently. A bathroom fixture manufacturer reports that
significant price pressures have developed in certain resins,
chemicals and corrugated cardboard. A food and beverage manufacturer
reports that lower packaging costs in the first quarter (year-over-
year basis) more than offset higher prices for raw ingredients. Some
firms suggest that they expect to see increased price pressures for
raw materials beginning early next year. On the output side, nearly
all firms surveyed report that competitive pressures preclude any
substantive price increases. Some firms, however, are trying to
increase prices where possible, with varying degrees of success.
Construction and Real Estate
Residential construction activity remains brisk, and recent
increases in long-term interest rates have apparently spurred "fence
sitters" into the market. Despite recent cost pressures especially
for lumber, two-thirds of District construction respondents in a
first quarter 1994 small-business survey had no plans to increase
prices in the next three months. District real estate agents report
a shortage of houses on the market, especially in the mid-priced
range, and note that many sellers are receiving two or more bids at
the asking price or higher.
Banking and Finance
Loan demand continues to pick up modestly in most parts of the
District. Consumer loan demand is generally characterized as
stronger than commercial loan demand. Rates paid on deposits have
risen only slightly in response to the general pick-up in interest
rates. Mortgage refinancing activity has slowed considerably because
of the recent increases in long-term rates.
Agriculture and Natural Resources
Fertilizer prices have increased substantially over last year's
relatively low levels according to three large manufacturers. Prices
have increased because of reduced ammonia supplies from the former
Soviet Union, unanticipated shutdowns of domestic plants and an
increase in demand stemming from a relatively large U.S. corn
acreage. These prices are expected to prevail throughout the
planting season and into late May.