Beige Book Report: Boston
December 6, 1995
Economic growth continues at a modest pace in the First District. Retailers report moderate sales gains overall in recent months, with very uneven sales patterns from week to week. Many manufacturers in the region have experienced solid growth in sales and orders compared to a year earlier, although one-third report no growth. Input and final prices are widely reported to be stable or stabilizing. Residential real estate markets in most of New England are "normal"; in Connecticut and Rhode Island, however, home sales and prices are weak. Investment management companies are doing well.
Retail
Most retail contacts in the First District express disappointment at
the "fits and starts" of sales activity in October and November.
Respondents -- apparel and hard-goods retailers alike -- are
relying heavily on promotions to achieve sales gains, ranging from 1
to 5 percent, compared with year-earlier levels. Even an exception,
a specialty apparel chain posting a double-digit increase in early
November, reports only 1 percent growth in October. Bestsellers
continue to be jewelry, accessories, and non-apparel, such as video
equipment. Off-price discounters report sluggish sales of winter
clothing this fall. Inventories are slightly above year-ago levels,
in anticipation of holiday sales. Retailers view the approaching
season with uncertainty, however, counting on major promotions to
achieve sales gains of 1 to 6 percent over 1994 holiday sales.
Vendors' prices are reportedly stable, including the price of cotton goods, which rose significantly earlier in the year. Competition continues to drive down retail prices in all stores. Most contacts plan little or no growth in employment and capital spending in 1996, as they struggle to maintain gross margins and increase profits.
Manufacturing
Two-thirds of First District manufacturing contacts report that
recent sales are solidly ahead of year-ago levels; the remainder
indicate a flat trend. Demand has increased substantially for
machine tools and industrial equipment, computer/electronics
products, health care supplies, and a range of building products and
equipment. By contrast, demand for automotive products, some
construction-related products, and packaging is softening, and
apparel and other consumer goods markets remain lackluster. Some
First District manufacturers have managed to increase their market
share in these industries, however.
Manufacturers generally note recent stabilization or reduced inflation in materials prices, including metals, petrochemicals, paper, and cotton. A couple of contacts remain concerned that sharp materials price increases over the past year have severely reduced margins. Output prices are reported to be mostly flat, with some selective increases.
Except for businesses with very rapid growth, manufacturers have made only modest changes in the size of their work force over the past year and anticipate little net change in coming months. Overall wage inflation remains modest, although salaries of information systems and other specialists are being bid up somewhat, in addition, a couple of contacts are experiencing some staffing difficulties as a result of previous decisions to hold down wage growth. Capital spending plans vary widely, although almost all companies plan at least some increase.
Manufacturing contacts generally foresee slow macroeconomic growth with little inflation. Sane believe they will do well in this environment as a result of good product offerings. Others are concerned about continuing bankruptcies among retailers, the future course of fiscal policy, and international competition.
Residential Real Estate
Market conditions remain variable across New England, although the
residential real estate market is generally reported to be in good
shape. Inventories are adequate but not excessive, prices are flat,
and credit is widely available. In fact, one broker reported that
she had recently obtained credit at good terms for clients who had
just emerged from bankruptcy or had been laid off. Home sales are
mostly flat versus last year, but overall activity is said to be at
a "normal" level compared to historical trends. Many sales are still
taking place at the bottom end of the market.
Activity in Vermont is improving again, with one respondent noting a significant increase in buyer interest in the last month. Real estate sales and prices in Connecticut and Rhode Island, however, have not improved and remain at low levels. Inventories are particularly high in those states.
Nonbank Financial Services
Investment management firms report large increases in assets under
management in the last six weeks. The increase was caused mostly by
rising market values of domestic stocks and bonds and, to a lesser
extent, by new investments. Three-quarters of the new investments
flowed into equity funds, with the rest going into bonds. This
pattern contrasts with that of a year ago when the bulk of new funds
went into bonds. Equity investments were dominated by domestic stock
funds. Sales of international stock funds are reported to have
reached a new low and emerging markets are in net liquidation. All
respondents have recently increased employment, mostly in the areas
of administration and technology, and plan further increases.