Beige Book Report: Chicago
December 6, 1995
Summary
The Seventh District economy continued to expand in October and
November, although manufacturing activity exhibited signs of
moderating. Retail sales improved through mid-November following
lackluster October results, although most retailers contacted expect
holiday sales gains to be smaller than last year. Housing and
construction activity remained strong in the District and
expectations for the near future are still high, despite
unseasonably cold weather in early November. Manufacturing activity
was mixed, with signs of improvement stronger in October than in
November. Labor markets remained tight in the District, with
shortages still being reported in some areas. The District's corn
and soybean harvest fell short of last year's record highs, while
usage rates and prices remained high. District lending activity was
mixed, with demand for business loans remaining strong while
consumer demand showed signs of softening.
Retail sales
Retail sales in the District improved through most of November,
following generally weak October sales. However, one survey
suggested that retailers are not expecting sales gains this year to
match last years strong holiday season. Retailers in the region
generally plan to increase promotional activities and start these
promotions earlier than last year. Competition has been intense in
major metropolitan areas of the District, with some downtown area
department stores cutting prices to attract customers from discount
outlet malls. Sales of electronics generally have outperformed other
market segments, while unseasonably cold weather boosted apparel
sales in much of the region. A large national retailer reported
stronger than expected sales, especially in the region, for the
first big holiday shopping weekend following Thanksgiving.
Particular strength was noted in appliances and furniture.
Reports from District auto dealers through mid-November have been mixed. A major Midwest dealer of foreign nameplates reported that sales of core products were doing well but sales of niche products-- especially sports cars--were weak. A domestic nameplate dealer described sales of new models as "spotty," but indicated that November sales were on target to meet expectations. Several dealers noted that minivan and sport/utility vehicle sales have shown improvement, while auto sales remained weak.
Housing and Construction
Reports from realtors and homebuilders suggest that home sales in
the region had been strengthening in recent months, but the sales
pace may have slowed slightly in November. Several contacts
attribute any recent slowing to unseasonably cold weather in a large
portion of the District. One of the largest realtors in the District
indicated that sales of existing homes were up considerably from
year-earlier level and continued to strengthen on a seasonally
adjusted basis. A survey of homebuilders showed some weakening in
new home sales in the region from October to early November.
However, these assessments remained substantially above year-earlier
levels and stronger than the national average. Expectations for
future new home sales remained at the high levels of the third
quarter. Contacts with commercial realtors and builders suggest
continued strength into November, while noting a normal seasonal
slowdown. Mortgage lenders expect that refinancing activity may pick
up in the near future in the event of a further decline in mortgage
interest rates.
Manufacturing
Manufacturing activity in the District was somewhat mixed in recent
weeks, with most of October's gains reportedly linked to auto
production. Most of the purchasing managers' surveys around the
District posted increases in October, with the Detroit survey pulled
up markedly by the auto component of its overall index. Chicago's
purchasing managers' survey for November indicated no change in
overall activity after October's advance, but orders and production
continued to expand. Auto producers indicated a pickup in output at
several District assembly plants, related either to new models or
added capacity. Two large steel producers reported that orders for
the fourth quarter from their auto customers were strong, with one
producer indicating that incoming orders moved from 80 percent of
their plant capacity in the late summer to exceeding full capacity
in October.
In contrast to the auto-related sectors, several reports from other producers suggest some recent slowing in demand. A small steel producer serving a diversity of markets reported that recent orders were flat to slightly down from last quarter, although production was being maintained by selling more steel to their affiliates. An analyst in the medium and heavy-duty truck industry reported a slowing pace in gross orders and fairly high cancellations, but noted that production of some models was being maintained even though inventory was being built. Producers of construction equipment continued to indicate an easing in orders and production. A major appliance producer reported that demand has been mixed, with demand for refrigerators and freezers doing well while demand for dishwashers has weakened. In contrast, producers of agricultural equipment reported that demand was strong.
Labor Markets
Labor markets remained tight in most of the District, with
unemployment rates in District states remaining at or near their
lowest levels of the last 20 years. Purchasing managers' surveys
suggested a slowing of momentum in manufacturing hiring in a
seasonally adjusted basis. Help-wanted advertising in the region
increased slightly in the third quarter and remained slightly above
year-ago levels. Temporary help agencies continued to report
difficulty in filling positions, and reports of wage increases for
entry-level positions persisted in the District. One analyst in a
large market reported that a large fast-food chain has had to
increase starting wages twice in the last two months. However, this
contact noted that there has been no fast-food price increases due
to labor shortages.
Agriculture
The fall harvest progressed at a slightly faster than normal pace in
District states and is now virtually complete. Latest estimates
indicate that both the corn and soybean harvest fell well short of
the record highs set a year ago. Because of strong consumption
patterns and sharply higher prices, however, the market value of the
District's fall harvest may prove to be one of the highest in
several years.
Banking
Lending activity around the District was mixed in October and
November, with demand for business loans remaining strong and demand
for consumer loans softening. Wisconsin and western Michigan, both
areas of very low unemployment, continued to experience solid
business loan growth, especially for new investment projects.
However, some increase in inventory financing was also noted.
Several bankers in major metropolitan areas reported a slowdown in
consumer lending. The slowdown was attributed in part to an effort
to charge higher interest rates and increase profit margins. Another
contributing factor noted was a marked increase in delinquency rates
in both installment and mortgage loans. One banker expected consumer
loan demand to remain relatively subdued for the rest of the year.