Beige Book Report: New York
December 6, 1995
Reports on economic conditions in the Second District were mixed to soft in recent weeks. Although year-over-year growth in retail sales declined sharply in October, it rebounded in early November. The residential real estate market weakened in New Jersey but improved slightly in New York state in recent weeks; commercial vacancy rates in Manhattan edged up in October. New York's unemployment rate declined in October, while New Jersey's edged up; payroll employment growth improved a bit in both states. However, three of New Jersey's largest employers recently announced plans to down-size. Finally, demand for loans at small to medium-sized banks weakened slightly in November, and consumer loan delinquencies rose.
Consumer Spending
Retail sales growth, on a year-over-year basis, slowed sharply in
October. Virtually all contacts reported that sales were well below
plan, ranging from an outright decline to a 5 percent increase.
Weakness in seasonal apparel was attributed to unseasonably mild
weather, but sales of home-related goods were also sluggish. In
early November, however, business picked up, with most retailers
reporting gains of 3 to 5 percent from a year earlier. The rebound
was attributed to colder weather, which boosted apparel sales;
however, sales of hard goods remained relatively weak. Sales over
the Thanksgiving weekend were reportedly on the low side in the New
York City area, although one contact attributed the weakness to the
shift in the observance of Hanukkah, which falls much later this
year than last.
Most of the retailers surveyed say that present inventory levels are about right, although two report they are "on the high side". Most contacts see more downward competitive pressures on selling prices than last year, while prices paid for merchandise were flat. Retailers' expectations for holiday-season sales range from 2 to 6 percent above last year's levels. However, according to a survey of holiday spending plans conducted every November, consumers in the region are budgeting 1 percent less, on average, for gifts in 1995 than in 1994.
Construction & Real Estate
Manhattan's commercial real estate market weakened slightly in
October. The midtown vacancy rate rose to 14.0 percent from 13.7
percent, as continued strong leasing activity only partially offset
a sharp rise in available space. In downtown Manhattan, leasing
activity fell in October, nudging the vacancy rate up 0.1 point to
25.7 percent.
Residential real estate markets are mixed. Homebuilders in down- state New York report that new home sales have been fair this year and have reportedly picked up a bit in the past month. Builders in upstate New York report modest improvement in sales activity in recent weeks but still cite conditions as poor-inventories of unsold homes remain substantial, home-buyer traffic is described as "a trickle", sales are down sharply from 1994 levels, and home prices are flat to lower than a year ago.
However, New Jersey contacts report further softening in that state's housing market. One describes new home sales as "dead in the water, despite sharp declines in mortgage rates, and characterizes traffic as "all but non-existent" since Labor Day. Another reports that year-to-date sales are running 25 percent below 1994 levels, with moderate traffic but "no sense of urgency to buy" in recent weeks. Builders attribute the slowdown to anxiety, among potential home-buyers, over a series of recent corporate down-sizing announcements.
Other Business Activity
New York state's unemployment rate declined from 6.8 percent in
September to 8.3 percent in October, reflecting a drop in the labor
force; New Jersey's rate edged up from 5.7 percent to 5.8 percent.
Both states reported above-trend growth in payroll employment in
October. However, three large New Jersey-based firms--AT&T,
Prudential, and PSEG (Public Service Electric & Gas) recently
announced down-sizing plans that could have a significant effect on
state employment. On a more positive note, with the securities
industry showing strong profits in 1995, year-end bonuses on Wall
Street are expected to be up substantially; one top firm has already
announced a sizable increase.
Buffalo purchasing managers report that business conditions in the manufacturing sector continued to strengthen in October, but their counterparts in Rochester report that growth slowed. New York City purchasing managers report that conditions in the manufacturing sector held steady, but that overall growth accelerated. The same surveys also show commodity price pressures increasing slightly in New York City but easing substantially in Buffalo and Rochester.
Financial Developments
Demand for nearly all types of loans was slightly weaker in November
than in October, according to the senior loan officers surveyed at
small and medium sized banks in the District. The consumer loan
segment suffered the sharpest slowdown, with demand lower at about
30 percent of the banks, and steady at about 50 percent. The
residential mortgage segment is the only loan category that did not
weaken. Demand for these loans is up at about 30 percent and steady
at another 30 percent. Refinancing activity-in contrast to earlier
reports of no activity-is starting to increase, and is now higher at
about 12 percent of the banks.
The number of loan delinquencies turned up in November, though credit standards have remained essentially unchanged. The consumer loan segment experienced the sharpest upturn in delinquencies--32 percent of the loan officers reported a rise in delinquency rates, up from 5 percent in October's survey. Almost all of those surveyed are as willing or more willing to lend. Average loan rates are for the most part the same or lower. The spread between the average lending and deposit rates is steady at almost 60 percent of the banks, and lower at almost 40 percent.