Beige Book Report: Boston
April 16, 2014
The First District economy continues to expand moderately, according to business contacts, although growth rates vary across sectors and firms. Most--but not all--retailers and manufacturers are seeing sales and revenue increases from a year ago; several continue to cite adverse effects of the recent winter weather. Advertising and consulting firms report strong growth, with the exception of a government contractor. Real estate markets continue to strengthen, although lack of inventory is constraining home sales in Massachusetts and commercial contacts cite concerns about "highly optimistic" assumptions underlying purchase prices and lending decisions. Very few firms outside of advertising and consulting are adding to head counts. Price changes remain minimal. The outlook is somewhat mixed, but mostly positive.
Retail
First District retailers contacted for this round were just completing Q1 or Q4 reports, depending on their fiscal year calendar. Year-over-year comparable-store sales ranged from being down 4 percent to being up slightly more than 10 percent. All of the respondents say that their retail sales were affected, to some degree, by the severe winter weather. One retailer benefited from much higher demand for winter-related items, while the others saw sales suffer because snowstorms kept consumers from shopping. Apparel, furniture, and appliances sold well, as did paint for interior home improvement projects. Inventories are mixed, in part because bad weather cut some stores' sales. For retailers with both brick-and-mortar stores and online sales channels, Internet sales continue to account for an increasing share of total sales.
Contacts continue to report that prices are steady overall, but some expect to see very modest price increases later in the year; one, for example, cites higher prices for a range of apparel inputs as well as higher foreign labor costs. The consensus is that consumer sentiment is continuing to improve.
Manufacturing and Related Services
Of the nine manufacturing firms contacted in this round, seven report higher sales than the same period a year earlier. The two citing declines were a frozen fish company and a manufacturer of pressure sensitive films. Two others, a manufacturer of industrial motors and brakes and a manufacturer of scientific equipment, report very slight sales increases compared with a year ago. Contacts at four firms say the weather adversely affected their sales in the first quarter but they find it difficult to estimate how much of the reduction is likely to be recovered in coming months. A manufacturer of parts for the auto industry said that slow sales in the auto industry have not yet affected build schedules, so inventories of finished cars are piling up. If auto sales don't "bounce back" in the spring, the contact believes that summer shutdowns in the industry will be longer than usual. A firm that makes water treatment devices reports that demand in residential real estate is strong. Globally, respondents indicate that sales in Europe are growing more rapidly, but from a very low base, while sales in Asia are strong.
Contacts report that commodity and other input prices are generally stable. Two firms say they raised prices on January 1 and customers largely accepted the increases. Inventory levels are largely unchanged. Five contacts report no change in employment and two report small increases. A biotechnology company plans to hire 1,000 workers this year and completed about 20 percent of that in the first quarter. A manufacturer of frozen fish closed a plant in Canada and moved production to New England, with no change in overall firm employment. Two-thirds of contacts report higher capital expenditures planned for 2014 versus 2013. For two contacts, a manufacturer of parts for jet engines and a maker of industrial motors and brakes, the increases are large relative to their typical levels of investment and represent substantial increases capacity. None of our manufacturing contacts has a negative outlook, but four said that they expect sales to be flat or to grow very slowly in 2014.
Selected Business Services
Consulting and advertising contacts report a strong first quarter, consistent with an accelerating economy. Healthcare consulting contacts indicate that very strong demand is ongoing, as providers continue to adjust to the changes imposed by the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Economic consulting remains a strong growth industry, although the conclusion of litigation related to mortgage-back securities and the financial sector may restrain growth slightly in the near future. Strategy consultants report strong demand growth, driven by high levels of private equity activity and increased demand for corporate work, as clients have become more comfortable with the economic outlook and begin to release pent-up demand for consulting work. Advertising and marketing contacts also report strong growth, ranging from 5 percent to 20 percent year-over-year, and cite factors including growing confidence in the economic outlook and an increased willingness among large corporations to spend in order to position themselves within their markets. By contrast, a government contractor cites continued contraction, but has observed increasing interest in new projects since the passage of the recent budget deal.
Contacts report small increases in costs and prices, ranging from zero to 4 percent. Some consultants cite minimal pressure to keep prices low, while others say that competition has forced them to keep prices flat. Employment growth is in the zero to 5 percent range, although most firms at zero either increased their workforce in the recent past or expect to do so soon if their current growth continues. All contacts are optimistic about the coming year and expect economic growth either to continue or to accelerate. Contacts cite various ongoing risks, but generally were only minimally concerned.
Commercial Real Estate
Commercial real estate contacts in Boston report that brisk demand for and tight supply of office space in portions of the city, including the Seaport District and Back Bay, have pushed asking rents up in those locations in recent months. While these localized rent increases are contributing to increases in average office asking rents in greater Boston, contacts note that rents remain flat in portions of the Financial District and in a number of suburban locations, and that rising maintenance costs mean that net rents are growing more slowly than asking rents. Speculative office construction remains limited, although respondents say that the pipeline of planned office construction for greater Boston is growing. Contacts continue to express concerns that prices being paid by investors for commercial properties in Boston, along with lending terms for commercial mortgages, embody highly optimistic assumptions concerning future rent growth on the properties. Demand for Boston properties has been particularly strong among foreign investors and domestic pension funds. A few contacts, located in Boston as well as elsewhere in the region, also expressed concern that current construction levels of high-end apartments are excessive in relation to potential demand for such units. At the same time, these contacts indicate that recently delivered luxury apartment units appear to be fetching rents in line with developers' projections.
In Hartford, sluggish leasing activity is attributed to the long, harsh winter, although fundamentals and business sentiment are described as stable. Also in Hartford, a new apartment construction project recently broke ground downtown, and investment sales interest remains healthy. Leasing deals proceeded slowly in greater Providence in the first quarter, leading to decreased confidence by one contact there, who nonetheless cites some positive developments in the Rhode Island economy that should contribute to job creation in coming months. Rents in Providence are described as flat on average, with some modest upward pressure in the class A office sector and diminishing concessions in suburban locations. Leasing activity reportedly increased in Portland in recent weeks, up from the already healthy pace seen at the beginning of the year. In addition to strong leasing demand, which pertained especially to the class A office sector and the retail sector, Portland's investment sales and development and construction inquiries grew in number. Growing demand for new construction reflects current, very low vacancy rates for downtown retail and class A office space in Portland. A regional lender faces ongoing competitive pressure to lower credit spreads for commercial mortgages, and continues to see a healthy pipeline of loan demand for most property types, with the exception of class B office space.
Contacts in both Hartford and Providence expect more slow improvement in fundamentals. The outlook for Portland's commercial real estate market is bullish in light of its recent growth and planned business expansions, while contacts expect that mixed performance will persist across different locations in the Boston metropolitan area.
Residential Real Estate
Realtors in the First District express caution but optimism about the mixed sales results that continued in the region in February. Year-over-year sales of single family homes decreased in Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and Connecticut, and increased in Maine and Vermont. (Contacts in New Hampshire were unavailable for comment in this round.) In the condominium market, sales increased relative to last year in Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Vermont, while decreasing in Rhode Island; condo sales information is not reported in Maine. The consensus across the First District is that the decline in sales will be short lived; respondents say it was partially driven by the tough winter, as well as uncertainty about new federal flood insurance rules. Signs of spring weather and new legislation limiting flood insurance premium increases are lessening these concerns. In Massachusetts, however, inventory shortages are said to be the key reason for the decline in sales. One Massachusetts contact stated "there is just not enough supply to meet demand." As a result, Massachusetts contacts say multiple bids are common and the median sales price for single family homes has increased compared to the year-earlier median in 17 consecutive months. Median sales prices also increased year-over-year in Connecticut and Maine, but declined in Vermont and Rhode Island. Residential real estate contacts say they expect sales to pick up seasonally this spring, but foresee no significant market shifts.