Beige Book: National Summary
June 4, 2025
Note: This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis based on information collected on or before May 23, 2025. This document summarizes comments received from contacts outside the Federal Reserve System and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials.
Overall Economic Activity
Reports across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicate that economic activity has declined slightly since the previous report. Half of the Districts reported slight to moderate declines in activity, three Districts reported no change, and three Districts reported slight growth. All Districts reported elevated levels of economic and policy uncertainty, which have led to hesitancy and a cautious approach to business and household decisions. Manufacturing activity declined slightly. Consumer spending reports were mixed, with most Districts reporting slight declines or no change; however, some Districts reported increases in spending on items expected to be affected by tariffs. Residential real estate sales were little changed, and most District reports on new home construction indicate flat or slowing construction activity. Reports on bank loan demand and capital spending plans were mixed. Activity at ports was robust, while reports on transportation and warehouse activity in other areas were mixed. On balance, the outlook remains slightly pessimistic and uncertain, unchanged relative to the previous report. However, a few District reports indicate the outlook has deteriorated while a few others indicate the outlook has improved.
Labor Markets
Employment has been little changed since the previous report. Most Districts described employment as flat, three Districts reported slight-to-modest increases, and two Districts reported slight declines. Many Districts reported lower employee turnover rates and more applicants for open positions. Comments about uncertainty delaying hiring were widespread. All Districts described lower labor demand, citing declining hours worked and overtime, hiring pauses, and staff reduction plans. Some Districts reported layoffs in certain sectors, but these layoffs were not pervasive. Two Districts noted that, for many of their contacts, hiring plans had not changed since the start of the year. Wages continued to grow at a modest pace, although many Districts reported a general easing in wage pressures. A few Districts indicated that higher costs of living continued to put upward pressure on wages.
Prices
Prices have increased at a moderate pace since the previous report. There were widespread reports of contacts expecting costs and prices to rise at a faster rate going forward. A few Districts described these expected cost increases as strong, significant, or substantial. All District reports indicated that higher tariff rates were putting upward pressure on costs and prices. However, contacts' responses to these higher costs varied, including increasing prices on affected items, increasing prices on all items, reducing profit margins, and adding temporary fees or surcharges. Contacts that plan to pass along tariff-related costs expect to do so within three months.
Highlights by Federal Reserve District
Boston
Economic activity decreased slightly overall. Consumer spending at retail stores and restaurants slowed modestly. Employers paused hiring because of heightened uncertainty, with employment declining slightly and wages increasing just barely. Prices increased only slightly, but larger price increases were expected for the summer. Contacts expressed mixed views concerning the outlook.
New York
Economic activity in the Second District continued to decline modestly amid heightened uncertainty. Employment held steady, though demand for workers softened and wage growth slowed to a modest pace. Selling price increases remained moderate, but input prices grew strongly with tariff-induced cost increases. Capital spending plans declined, and the outlook was quite pessimistic.
Philadelphia
Business activity declined modestly in the current Beige Book period, as it did in the last period. Employment declined slightly, despite an uptick in manufacturing sector jobs. Wages increased slightly, and firm price inflation was up moderately. Existing home sales grew slightly, and new home sales declined moderately. Expectations for future growth rose moderately for manufacturers and slightly for nonmanufacturers.
Cleveland
District business activity continued to be flat in recent weeks, and contacts expected activity to remain flat in the months ahead. Retailers noted a pullback in consumer spending, and manufacturers reported softer orders. Many contacts attributed robust cost increases to tariffs and said that their selling prices increased moderately.
Richmond
The regional economy continued to grow mildly in recent weeks. Consumer spending and nonfinancial services demand picked up slightly, financial services demand and real estate activity were little changed, and manufacturing activity contracted slightly. Port volumes increased strongly due to a surge in import activity. Employment rose slightly, wage growth was modest, and overall price growth remained moderate.
Atlanta
The economy of the Sixth District grew slightly. Employment was steady, and wage pressure decreased. Prices increased moderately. Consumer spending was flat, and travel and tourism declined modestly. Home sales rose slightly. Transportation activity grew at a modest pace. Loan growth slowed. Manufacturing fell, but energy activity rose slowly.
Chicago
Economic activity increased slightly. Consumer spending and employment increased modestly; business spending and construction and real estate activity were flat; manufacturing declined slightly; and nonbusiness contacts saw a slight decline in activity. Prices and wages rose modestly, and financial conditions loosened slightly. Prospects for 2025 farm income increased some.
St. Louis
Economic activity has remained unchanged, but the outlook has slightly deteriorated. Employment levels were unchanged, and wage growth has been modest. Contacts expressed elevated uncertainty and concern that tariffs would result in further cost increases.
Minneapolis
The District economy contracted slightly overall. Employment was flat and wages grew moderately. Some employers were preparing contingency plans for potential layoffs. Prices increased moderately overall; some contacts were adding or considering tariff surcharges. Manufacturing increased moderately and consumer spending fell. Agricultural conditions remained weak, but crop progress was solid.
Kansas City
Overall activity declined moderately, driven by lower retail spending, a decline in the demand for single-family homes, and a slight contraction in manufacturing. Businesses indicated they were increasingly cautious about hiring plans and capital expenditures, but employment levels were steady.
Dallas
Economic activity in the Eleventh District economy was little changed over the reporting period. Nonfinancial services activity held steady and growth in the manufacturing sector slowed. Loan volumes grew slightly, and the housing market remained subdued. Employment was flat and price pressures held steady except for the tariff-related increases seen in the manufacturing sector. Outlooks generally deteriorated, and tariff uncertainty was making it hard for businesses to plan for the future.
San Francisco
Economic activity slowed slightly. Employment levels were generally stable. Wages rose slightly and prices increased modestly. Retail sales and consumer and business services demand eased. Conditions in manufacturing, agriculture, and real estate markets softened slightly. Activity in the financial services sector was stable.