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Specifying Vector Autoregressions for Macroeconomic Forecasting

Staff Report 92 | Published March 1, 1984

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Author

Robert B. Litterman

Specifying Vector Autoregressions for Macroeconomic Forecasting

Abstract

This paper describes a Bayesian specification procedure used to generate a vector autoregressive model for forecasting macroeconomic variables. The specification search is over parameters of a prior. This quasi-Bayesian approach is viewed as a flexible tool for constructing a filter which optimally extracts information about the future from a set of macroeconomic data. The procedure is applied to a set of data and a consistent improvement in forecasting performance is documented.