Skip to main content

"Rational" Forecasts from "Nonrational" Models

Working Paper 61 | Published February 1, 1977

Download PDF


"Rational" Forecasts from "Nonrational" Models


This paper puts forward a method for simulating an existing macroeconometric model while maintaining the additional assumption that individuals form their expectations rationally. This simulation technique is a first response to Lucas' criticism that standard econometric policy evaluation allows policy rules to change but doesn't allow expectations rules to change as economic theory predicts they will. The technique is applied to a version of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Model with interesting results. The rational expectations version of the St. Louis Model exhibits the same neutrality with respect to certain policy rules as small, analytic rational expectations models considered by Lucas, Sargent, and Wallace.