Skip to main content

Real-Time Forecasting with a Mixed-Frequency VAR

Working Paper 701 | Published September 4, 2012

Download PDF


Real-Time Forecasting with a Mixed-Frequency VAR


This paper develops a vector autoregression (VAR) for macroeconomic time series which are observed at mixed frequencies – quarterly and monthly. The mixed-frequency VAR is cast in state-space form and estimated with Bayesian methods under a Minnesota-style prior. Using a real-time data set, we generate and evaluate forecasts from the mixed-frequency VAR and compare them to forecasts from a VAR that is estimated based on data time-aggregated to quarterly frequency. We document how information that becomes available within the quarter improves the forecasts in real time.