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Kansas City: July 1973

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Beige Book Report: Kansas City

July 11, 1973

Difficulties in obtaining fuel because of station closings apparently are scaring some motoring tourists away from the Tenth District this summer. But while the energy crisis may be depressing tourism, it is generating activity in the extractive industries in Wyoming and elsewhere. A survey of many light manufacturers throughout the District turned up none pessimistic about sales outlooks. Good news of a bumper crop of wheat in Kansas is largely offset by the bad news of the adverse effects of the price freeze on food supplies. Bankers feel that recent increases in administered interest rates (discount, prime) will have little dampening influence on economic activity.

In most cases, popular historical sites and outdoor recreation areas throughout the District are attracting fewer tourists. Attendance at Eisenhower Center in Abilene, Kansas, for example, is running 20 percent below last year. Colorado apparently has been hit hardest. Park and museum visitations there are down "tremendously." Even campground use has declined for the first time, while motel receipts are off as much as 30 percent in some Colorado areas, and perhaps 10 percent statewide. Businessmen blame problems in obtaining gasoline. New Mexico also is suffering a decline in tourist business, with national park and monument visitation down 7 percent and state park visitation down 4 percent through May. Tourist inquiries received by the New Mexico Department of Development during June of this year were 25 percent fewer than those received during June of 1972.

Wyoming tourism so far this year appears about as good as last year, and perhaps somewhat better. But respondents fear that the early visitors are trying to beat the gasoline shortage, and that the season will finish slow. Advanced sales of nonresident hunting and fishing licenses are down 30 percent, no doubt partly due to their increased prices, but probably also due to fears of short gasoline supplies.

Thanks largely to fuel shortages, mining activity has increased greatly in the Tenth District western states. The shift toward atomic energy is stimulating the pace of extraction and processing of uranium in the Rocky Mountain States, where much of the nation's known reserves of uranium ore are located. On top of this, the renewed importance of coal has given a boost to the Wyoming economy, where major reserves of low sulfur coal are found in thick seams near the surface. In most of the District states, petroleum and natural gas production is of continuing economic importance. Stepped up efforts of discovering new fields and producing zones, and the possible economic feasibility of extracting oil from vast shale deposits, further brighten the economic outlook in the District.

Sales managers of many light manufacturing firms in the District see little indication of an end to the boom. They expect continued sales growth into 1974. Most firms are producing at or near capacity. Several are adding, or planning to add, to capacity. Only minor inconveniences are being experienced because of the price freeze. However, one Wyoming manufacturer came near closing recently because of inability to get diesel fuel.

For the month ended June 15, farm prices posted another gain, rising 6 percent above May on the strength of higher grain prices. The spurt in grain prices was precipitated in large measure by a wave of buy orders from abroad in anticipation of export control. Despite record high prices, the freeze has locked much of the livestock industry into an unprofitable position, and with controls on exports, crop producers may curb their plans to expand output in the future. Food processors have also been hard hit by the new program as several have either cut back or closed down operations. On the whole, the stiff actions taken to ease food prices likely will prove counter productive and result in more restrictive production.

Harvest of the 1973 winter wheat crop is progressing rapidly. Earlier fears about possible shortages of combines, fuel, and elevator storage have been largely unfounded. Isolated shortages occur nearly every year, but usually are not so well publicized. If anything, the Kansas harvest has been less troublesome than usual. Some wheat is being stored on the ground, but none has been lost due to an inability to get it out of the field. At this point, the 1973 crop could quite possibly exceed the June 1 estimates.

Following the lead of the nation's largest banks, all but one of the major District banks increased their large borrower prime rates to 8 percent in the past week. The only exception, a large Tulsa bank, raised its prime rate to 8 1/4 percent. Surveyed banks generally felt that further increases in the prime rate would be required to slow business loan demand. With regard to the prime rate charged to small borrowers, only two banks reported increases since the guidelines went into effect. However, the level of this rate varied greatly among banks, ranging from 6 1/2 to 8 1/2 percent. Recent increases in the discount rate were not viewed as being much of a deterrent to further borrowing from the Federal Reserve. Several banks implied that unless otherwise restricted they would continue to use the discount window as long as it remained their cheapest source of funds. Two banks also said that the recent increases in required reserve ratios would be far more effective in restraining their lending activities.