Beige Book Report: Richmond
October 23, 1984
Overview
A confluence of special factors is making it very difficult to
evaluate the underlying condition of economic activity in the Fifth
District. Seasonal factors, weather, labor negotiations, and
especially rising imports appear to be masking more general trends.
The manufacturing sector, for instance, seems to be making further
headway, although losses in the apparel and textile group are
continuing. The weakness earlier reported in the retail sector now
appears to have been less than uniform, and the earlier momentum of
retail sales has been recaptured in any event. There have clearly
been production losses in several areas, notably coal, textiles, and
automobile related manufacturing, as a result of labor negotiations.
In the auto-related sectors, these losses should be made up rather
quickly. Coal production continues very strong, with a record year
virtually assured. Construction activity remains strong, but
somewhat less uniform than in early summer. Loan demand is
essentially stable, with consumer installment loans back on trend,
and there have been modest inflows of consumer deposits into
District financial institutions.
Manufacturing
Most evidence suggests that further gains in employment and output
have occurred in District manufacturing in recent weeks. It is
almost certain that the machinery and equipment and electrical
equipment industries have expanded employment. Also, seasonal
strength in food processing and tobacco manufacturing is boosting
employment and output. On the other hand, textile, and apparel
producers have not exhibited their normal seasonal strength. Most
other industries have shown little change of late, and some, such as
paper producers, continue to operate at extremely high levels of
capacity utilization.
Manufacturers' inventories have been essentially flat recently, and there appears to be only scattered concern that they might be excessive. Plant and equipment is largely in line with perceived needs, although there is decidedly less optimism among District manufacturers than in recent months. Prices at the manufacturing level are practically flat.
Consumer Activity
At present, consumer activity is back on the strong trend
established earlier in the year, despite some isolated spots of
weakness in mid-summer. Current indicators are that the earlier
weakness was less widespread than earlier indicated, and was
concentrated in durable goods. Some areas are now reporting a
significant rebound in those goods more recently. Thus, year over
year gains are once again in double digits almost across the board.
As an aside, some respondents seemed surprised by the suggestion
that August may have been an off month for retail sales, One other
factor, however, has been unusual weather. In particular, a
hurricane significantly disrupted business activity in a sizeable
part of the District in the past month.
Construction
Commercial construction continues to lead the way for the District,
especially in the metropolitan areas. The pipeline for these
projects remains full, as new plans and announcements are still
keeping up with completions.
Housing activity is by most indications, making a comeback after a brief respite. Once again, major strength seems to be concentrated in and around the metropolitan areas, but that has been the case, more or less, throughout the recovery. All in all, housing construction and sales are at or near the levels reached earlier in the year.
Agriculture
Agricultural cash receipts in the Fifth District are expected to
rebound sharply from the drought dominated levels of a year ago.
Preliminary estimates call for District cash receipts rising 12 to
17 percent over 1983 levels. Larger crop production as well as
increased livestock production have fueled the cash receipts
increase, more than outweighing lower crop prices experienced this
season. Production cost increases were modest in 1984, indicating
that agricultural net cash receipts levels will also show
improvement.
The Outlook
Expectations around the District are very mixed at present.
Manufacturers, as noted, are considerably less optimistic than in
recent months, perhaps even pessimistic. Quite a few now seem to
feel that current levels of activity are unsustainable. Much of this
lack of optimism is related to import competition, however. Textile
and apparel producers are very concerned and 1984 imports to date
could easily justify that concern.
Consumers and retailers, on the other hand, are seen as confident and still holding to positive expectations, at least for the remainder of the year. Retailers are described as cautious with regard to inventories, but indications are that inventories are adequate to support continued strength in sales. Retailers are not, apparently, inclined to risk losing sales on this account.
There is little sense that inflation poses any near term threat. Prices are expected to rise only very little in coming months.