Beige Book Report: Philadelphia
October 23, 1986
The Third District economy continues to expand at about the same overall pace as it has since mid-summer. Activity in the manufacturing sector rose marginally in October for the fourth month in a row. Retail sales are also growing, although not quite making the increase merchants had been expecting. Total loan volume at major Third District banks is growing at slightly above the pace set during the first three quarters of the year, with commercial lending and real estate financing posting the strongest gains. Consumer lending, while still growing at a fair rate, has not accelerated.
Expectations for the Third District economy are generally positive, although optimism has waned somewhat in recent weeks. On balance, manufacturers expect improving business over the next six months or more. Retailers are sticking with earlier predictions of a good fourth quarter, although some now believe that the upper range of their forecasts may not. be attainable. Bankers expect continued strength in commercial loan demand, but they see consumer credit demand slackening next year.
Manufacturing
The pickup in manufacturing activity that began in the region this
maser has entered its fourth month, according to the latest Business
Outlook Survey. Industrial firms posting gains in October slightly
outnumbered those reporting slowdowns for the month. Business is
expanding for 24 percent of the survey respondents, dropping for 14
percent, and holding level for 54 percent. Improvement is more
marked in the nondurable goods sector than in durable goods.
Most indicators of manufacturing activity show improvement this month. New orders, shipments, and order backlogs are up, and inventories are falling slightly. Employment remains at a standstill, however. Responses to the October survey reveal mostly steady payrolls in the region and a fractional drop in working hours.
Some upward pressure on industrial prices in the region is evident in this month's survey. Although the majority of survey respondents say input costs are steady, more now report increasing charges than at any time this year. Area companies' selling prices are largely unchanged, however.
Local manufacturers generally have positive views of the future. balance, survey respondents foresee continued expansion through at least the first quarter of next year. They predict a growing rate of orders and shipments, but they do not expect any gains in employment. Industrial firms' capital spending plans call for slightly greater outlays, overall, during the next six months.
Retail
Department and general merchandise stores in the area report year-
over-year sales increases of up to 10 percent in mid-October.
However, some say this is below expectations. Unseasonably warm
weather in late September and early October has restrained sales of
fall outerwear, according to store officials. As these lines account
for a substantial portion of sales at this time of year, continued
poor performance could hold down results for the quarter.
Discount stores generally have been experiencing slower growth than stores with more up-scale merchandise. Two large discount chains have entered the area in recent months and a third is planning a major expansion of its presence in the region, restricting growth of sales per store. Greater price competition has also narrowed selling margins.
The apparent slowdown in retail sales is beginning to prompt concern for the Christmas season among merchants. However, they are still hoping to meet their sales objectives for the holidays. Store officials say there is little they can do at this late date to alter plans, anyway.
Finance
Total lending by major Third District banks grew approximately 5
percent from August to September. Total loan volume outstanding in
September was approximately 17 percent above the year-earlier
period. Demand for commercial and industrial loans remains strong.
Some banks are implementing more stringent credit qualifications in
this category, however, which they expect will slow the growth of
their lending to this sector. Prospects of a softer economy during
1987 are motivating this caution, according to these banks.
Real estate lending also remains strong. Banks active in construction financing say they are lending to financially sound contractors for both commercial and residential development. Almost no speculative building is being done, and bank-financed projects are usually substantially pre-leased or have long-term commitments from mortgage lenders.
Consumer installment lending is generally experiencing healthy growth, but the rate at which credit card outstandings is increasing has slackened. Bankers speculate that consumers have held back in taking on more of this type of debt while they have increased purchases of automobiles. Some bankers predict even slower growth in consumer lending during the fourth quarter as automobile loan payments begin for cars bought during the latest round of manufacturers' incentive financing programs.
Total deposits at large Third District banks grew approximately 12 percent from August to September. For the month, deposits were also 12 percent above September 1985. Some banks report a slowdown in the growth of savings deposits and certificates of deposit. Although some of this is a result of liability management strategies, weakening growth in core passbook and statement savings deposits is becoming a matter of concern at some institutions.