Beige Book Report: Philadelphia
September 18, 1991
Economic conditions in the Third District appeared mixed in early September. Manufacturers reported continuing improvement, with increases in orders and shipments. Retailers indicated that sales have been running only even with a year ago. Bankers said commercial lending continued to slip while consumer and real estate loan volume was just steady.
In their forecasts, most Third District business contacts generally see current trends in their industries continuing. Manufacturers predict further improvement over the next two quarters. Retailers expect sales to run at just a steady pace well into the fall. Bankers expect total loan volume to remain nearly flat. While some believe the decline in commercial lending may bottom out soon, they say convincing evidence of a turnaround is not yet in sight.
Manufacturing
On balance, Third District manufacturers contacted in late August
and early September reported continuing improvement in business
conditions. Half said orders and shipments had been steady in recent
weeks while nearly a third said orders and shipments have been
increasing. However, some weakness was reported by firms producing
transportation equipment and defense goods; these companies
indicated that orders were slipping toward very low levels. Overall,
while almost half of the firms polled reported steady inventories,
more than a third indicated that stocks were declining. Employment
appeared to be stable, on balance, with more than three-fourths of
local firms maintaining steady payrolls and working hours.
Looking ahead, Third District manufacturers are generally optimistic. Most of those contacted for this report expect orders and shipments to rise over the next two quarters, and many anticipate an increase in order backlogs. On balance, area manufacturers plan so hold inventories at current levels over the period. While most firms are planning to maintain steady employment through the winter, approximately one-fourth intend to hire more workers. Overall, capital spending plans at area plants call for only a slight increase in outlays over the next six months.
Retail
Most Third District retailers surveyed in early September reported
that sales for August were approximately even with August a year
ago, in current dollars. Most also said that the year-over-year
comparison for early September appeared to be flat as well. Similar
reports were given by virtually all types of stores and for all
lines of merchandise. Merchants also said that back-to-school
shopping was not strong. Several retail executives said they believe
recently enacted income and sales tax increases in Pennsylvania and
New Jersey were a restraining influence on consumer spending.
Third District retailers generally share a very cautious outlook. Most do not look for significant growth in sales this fall. Some noted that competitive pressures appear to be building as expectations for an early recovery fade; they point to deep markdowns and extended sales at some stores. In general, merchants do not expect solid improvement until Christmas shopping begins, and they hope to better the weak performance of last year. Nonetheless, some store officials indicated that they have not ordered aggressively for the holiday sales period.
Finance
Total loan volume outstanding at major Third District banks
continued to edge down in late August and early September, according
to local bankers. The decline is concentrated in commercial and
industrial lending. Bankers generally indicated that there is little
loan demand from potential business borrowers that meet their credit
standards. Most of the bankers interviewed for this report indicated
that consumer loan demand was soft although outstandings continued
to be nearly stable. Real estate loan volume was also described as
steady. Although reports varied among banks, it appeared that,
overall, real estate loan volume was being held up by new lending
for light industrial buildings and extensions of loans to existing
commercial borrowers who have been unable to obtain permanent
financing; most bankers said they were seeing little demand for new
residential mortgages and they were making few new loans for office
or commercial space. Home equity loan volume has been steady at most
large banks in the district.
Most of the bankers interviewed in early September expect loan volume outstanding to remain steady in the short-term. Some indicated that seasonal slowness may be obscuring signs of a pickup in commercial lending; nevertheless, most believe that a rebound in financing activity, for both businesses and consumers, will not occur until potential borrowers become confident that economic conditions will improve soon.