Beige Book Report: Chicago
August 3, 1994
Summary
Seventh District economic growth has moderated from the robust pace
of late 1993 and early 1994, but generally continued to advance at a
good rate during the seasonally slower summer period. Survey data
and reports from retailers suggest that sales growth may have picked
up again in June and early July, after slowing in April and May.
Manufacturing and distribution activity remained vigorous. Somewhat
weaker demand has played a role (along with tight supplies) in
constraining auto sales, but discussions with auto manufacturers and
dealers suggest that underlying demand for vehicles remains
relatively strong. Higher mortgage interest rates have definitely
slowed housing activity, however. Competitive forces continued to
preclude price increases in retailing, while industrial materials
continued to rise. Labor shortages have been reported more
frequently, but few manufacturers expressed concern about developing
wage pressures. Favorable weather has significantly bolstered
prospects for the District's fall crop harvest, and prices for corn
and soybeans have fallen markedly since mid-June.
Retail Sales/Housing
Surveys and discussions with large retailers suggest that retail
sales continued to grow at a moderate pace, after slowing earlier in
the second quarter. One large retailer stated that "April and May
were a small setback, but we think this is a boring, slow, middle-
of-the-road upward trend, and it is likely to continue." Sales
growth in this firm's District stores has been below the national
average during 1994, but only because sales recovered in other
important market areas later than they did in the District. Another
large retailing firm reported that "the overall trend is not as
strong as it was, but it's still very good." Sales gains in
household furnishings continue to outperform those for apparel,
according to several retailing firms. Sales tax revenues continued
to post strong gains in Illinois through June. A state official in
Michigan noted that growth in sales tax revenues has implied greater
economic growth in the state than recent employment and income data,
even after adjusting for the impact of changes in the tax law.
Discussions with 12 auto dealerships were mixed but suggestive of
relatively strong vehicle demand, although growth may still have
slowed from earlier in the year. Tight supplies are still cutting
into sales gains, and some (but not all) dealerships stated that
higher interest rates were also dampening sales. No dealership
expected accelerating lease expirations to hamper future new car
sales.
Housing sales and construction have lost some momentum in recent months. An association of homebuilders reported that sales and traffic fell off significantly further than seasonally expected in May and June. Activity is well below expectations held earlier in 1994. One large homebuilder stated that "the initial sales push from fears of higher interest rates seems to have played itself out. The overall impact of higher rates is now negative." Demand from non- discretionary buyers has held up relatively well under rate increases, according to this contact, but May and June results were still characterized as "lousy." and below plan. One of the largest realtors, in the District reported that transactions volume in June was significantly below its year-earlier level; year-to-date in 1994, sales are even with last year, and "the trend isn't good." A large bank reported that housing loan demand has fallen off in recent months.
Manufacturing
Survey results and reports from manufacturers indicate that
manufacturing activity remained vigorous. The production components
of purchasing managers' surveys around the District continued to
increase or remain at high levels in June. A large manufacturer of
industrial power equipment division cited strong demand from the
steel industry as a primary factor in its continuing sales gains,
both from integrated mills (striving to improve productivity) and
mini-mills. The underlying momentum in steel production remained
strong, according to an industry analyst who recently raised his
forecast for shipments in 1994. Construction and mining machinery
sales (in units) rose significantly in the Midwest in the first
quarter, although an industry analyst believed that sales growth may
have moderated since then. This contact indicated that higher
interest rates seem to have had little effect on construction and
mining equipment sales thus far in 1994. A large manufacturer of
appliances reported slowing sales growth in most product lines (air
conditioners being an important exception). Domestic appliance sales
to dealers still reached a record for June, and continued gains in
housing completions should help strengthen demand, but this contact
expected sales to flatten out (on a seasonally adjusted basis) over
the balance of 1994. A survey of heavy-duty truck operators
suggested that utilization rose to the highest level for the second
quarter in the past eleven years, and a greater-than-seasonally-
expected increase from the first quarter "spells heightened demand
for ... replacement parts for the next six to nine months."
There are not yet any extraordinary shortages of construction equipment arising from an ongoing strike: some machine types are on allocation, but an industry analyst noted that "this is typical for the industry tight now." Overseas productive capacity is still underutilized for most of the affected manufacturers' product lines. A capital goods manufacturer stated that sales to the paper industry remain relatively weak, even as that industry's operating rate has risen to high levels, because paper manufacturers' profitability has suffered with weak prices due to low capacity utilization levels among overseas manufacturers.
Prices
Discussions with retailers revealed little if any upward movement in
the consumer prices. Asked about pricing, one large chain stated
that "if you're looking for inflation, you better find another
industry." Another large retailer indicated that the firm is still
trying to lower prices "wherever possible." On average, this firm's
prices have continued to decline. A number of banking, retailing,
and construction equipment firms cited renewed vigor in shopping
center development and otherwise increased retailing capacity as
evidence that competitive conditions will dampen retail pricing for
some time to come.
Industrial material prices continued to climb faster than the overall price level. The price component of purchasing managers' surveys in Chicago, Detroit and Western Michigan each rose in June, and have been on upward trends during 1994. Finished steel prices have been heading higher this year on the spot market, while contractual prices with automakers are also expected to rise. After dropping off significantly in March and April, scrap steel prices firmed and rose anew during May and June, and an industry analyst expected further gains in coming months. A large petrochemical firm noted that future supply conditions are highly uncertain (citing output in the former USSR, in particular), and refrained from speculating about the future path of oil prices.
Several regional analysts reported strong gains in help-wanted advertising in their respective market areas, both in print as well as on the radio, with one noting increased advertising by employers based outside the local area where the ads appear. Few manufacturers stated that labor shortages were impacting wages, however, and those who did noted that upward pressures on wages were concentrated in skilled technical positions.
Agriculture
Favorable weather patterns this summer have offset earlier drought
concerns and significantly bolstered prospects for the District's
fall crop harvest. Crop condition ratings are among the highest in
memory, especially in Iowa and Wisconsin where virtually all of the
corn acreage is rated "good" or "excellent." The high ratings have
prompted some analysts to view this year's potential harvest as
comparable to the 1992 record. In line with these improved
prospects. however, crop prices have retreated sharply. Both corn
and soybean prices have fallen about 20 percent since mid-June.