The COVID-19 pandemic is inflicting enormous human and economic costs on the Ninth District, nation, and world. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is charged with closely monitoring economic conditions in our region so that local and national policymakers can make informed policy choices.
Given rapidly changing conditions, the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is monitoring a variety of daily and weekly data sources to more accurately assess economic developments in real time, some of which are displayed below. Please check back for frequent updates and new indicators.
Selected real-time economic indicators: Ninth District COVID-19 statistics
Selected real-time economic indicators: Inequality
The pandemic is hitting low-income and minority populations especially hard. These measures document key economic disparities across geographies and demographic groups.
Change in consumer spending by income
Census Household Pulse Survey
“Hispanic” is defined as Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish origin of any race. “White,” “Black,” and “Asian” are defined as each race alone and not of Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish origin. “Other” is defined as any other race alone (including Native American) or a combination of two or more races, and not of Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish origin. “Ninth District” is defined as Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin.
Selected real-time economic indicators: Mobility and transportation
Location data from cell phones provide insight into how people are physically engaging with different sectors of the economy. The large declines in March reflect people staying at home, while the upward trends since reflect some increased mobility. Keep in mind that location is not spending; getting out more doesn’t always imply spending more.
SafeGraph foot traffic mobility
Google Mobility Reports
Selected real-time economic indicators: Labor and Small business
Real-time insights into the devastating impact of the crisis on labor and small business conditions are essential for the Federal Reserve. Labor markets are recovering, but remain substantially depressed in many sectors throughout the Ninth District.
1 Test positivity ratio is the ratio of positive confirmed cases over total tests specimens. MN and SD positive cases include both confirmed and probable cases. US positivity rate is calculated by taking the aggregate of COVID Tracking Project’s designated best total test measures (specimens, encounters, or people) available for each state. Due to data limitations, MN’s 11/10 raw total tests was interpolated by taking the midpoint of the days before and after.
2 Q2-2020 resident population to calculate per thousand. Positive cases are confirmed cases. SD positive cases include both confirmed and probable cases. MN positive cases include both reported confirmed and probable cases.
3 Q2-2020 resident population to calculate per million. ND and SD deaths include reported confirmed and probable deaths.
4 Compared to consumer spending in January 4-31, 2020. Income distribution refers to consumer spending living in ZIP codes with low, middle, or high median income. The most recent data point is the weekly average. Prior to the most recent week, the data series is daily. The last few weeks of data points are subject to potential revisions.
5 Compared to January 4-31, 2020. Low-income employment refers to workers in the bottom quartile of the income distribution (<$27K). National-level includes forecasted data.
6 Lines show percent of adults who did any work for pay or profit in the past 7 days.
7 Lines show percent of adults who live in a household where someone lost employment income since March 13, 2020.
8 Lines show percent of adults who live in a household where members sometimes or often did not get enough to eat in the past 7 days.
9 Lines show percent of adults who live in a household where someone received a free meal or free groceries in the past 7 days.
10 From April to July, lines show percent of adults who own a home with a mortgage/loan or who rent and did not pay last month’s mortgage/rent on time or deferred the payment. From August to October, lines show percent of adults who own a home with a mortgage/loan or who rent and are not currently caught up on their mortgage/rent payments.
11 Compared to same day and week in 2019
12 Compared to median day-value from the 5-week period in Jan 3-Feb 6, 2020
13 Compared to median day-value from the 5-week period in Jan 3-Feb 6, 2020. There is missing data from August 17th to September 10th for MT, ND, and SD.
14 Compared to median day-value from the 5-week period in Jan 3-Feb 6, 2020. There is missing data from August 17th to September 10th for SD.
15 Transit service suspended mid-day 5/28 and resumed partial service 6/3. Full service resumed 6/5
16 Compared to same weekday in 2019
17 Compared to same day and week in 2019