Edward C. Prescott Papers

Published Papers

Nobel Lecture [off site]
Business Cycles and Economic Development
General Equilibrium Theory
Money, Banking, and Finance
Methodology and Policy
Other Papers
Books and Symposiums: Edited and Collaborations

Unpublished Papers and Projects


Business Cycles and Economic Development

"Capacity Constraints, Asymmetries, and the Business Cycle," with Gary Hansen, Review of Economic Dynamics 8, no. 4 (October 2005): 850-865.

"A Unified Theory of the Evolution of International Income Levels," with S. L. Parente, 2003."

"The 1990s in Japan: A Lost Decade," with F. Hayashi, Review of Economic Dynamics 5, no. 1 (January 2002): 206-35.

"Monopoly Rights: A Barrier to Riches," with S. L. Parente, American Economic Review 89, no. 5 (December 1999): 1216-1233.

"Needed: A Theory of Total Factor Productivity," International Economic Review 39 (August 1998): 525-552.

"Barriers to Technology Adoption and Development*," with S. Parente, Journal of Political Economy 102 (April 1994): 298-321.

"Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: A Descriptive Empirical Investigation," with R. Hodrick, Journal Money, Credit, and Banking 29, no. 1 (February 1997): 1-16. Discussion Paper 451, Northwestern University, 1980.

"An Equilibrium Analysis with Idle Resources and Varying Capacity Utilization Rates," with T. F. Cooley and G. D. Hansen, Economic Theory 6, no. 1 (June 1995): 35-50.

"Recursive Methods for Computing Equilibria in Business Cycle Models," with G. D. Hansen, Chapter 2 in T. F. Cooley, ed., Frontiers of Business Cycle Research, (Princeton University Press, 1995), 39-64.

"Did Technology Shocks Cause the 1990-1991 Recession?"*, with G. D. Hansen, American Economic Review 83, no. 2 (May 1993): 280-86.

"Hours and Employment: Variations in Business Cycle Theory," with F. Kydland, Economic Theory 1 (January 1991): 63-82.

"Response to a Skeptic," Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review 10 (Autumn 1986): 28-33.

"Theory Ahead of Business Cycle Measurement," in K. Brunner and A. H. Meltzer, eds., Real Business Cycles, Real Exchange Rates and Actual Policies, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 25 (Autumn 1986): 11-44. Revised version reprinted in Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review 10 (Fall 1986): 9-22.

"Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," with F. Kydland, Econometrica 50 (November 1982): 1345-70.

A Competitive Theory of Fluctuations and the Feasibility and Desirability of Stabilization Policy," with F. Kydland, in S. Fischer, ed., Rational Expectations and Economic Policy, (University of Chicago Press, 1980), 169-98.

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General Equilibrium Theory

"Lotteries, Sunspots, and Incentive Constraints," with T. J. Kehoe and D. K. Levine, (August 1988). Revised (March 2000). Forthcoming, Journal of Economic Theory.

"Valuation Equilibrium with Clubs," Journal of Economic Theory 74 (May 1997): 19-39.

"The Firm and the Plant in General Equilibrium Theory," with . Hornstein, in Robert Becker, Michele Boldrin, Ronald Jones, and William Thomson, eds., General Equilibrium, Growth, and Trade II: The Legacy of Lionel McKenzie, (Academic Press, 1993), 393-410.

"Classical Competitive Analysis of Economies with Islands," with J. V. Rios-Rull, Journal of Economic Theory 57 (June 1992): 73-98.

"Insurance Contracts as Commodities: A Note," with A. Hornstein, Review of Economic Studies 58 (1991): 917-28.

"General Competitive Analysis in an Economy with Private Information," with R. Townsend, International Economic Review 25 (February 1984): 1-20.

"Pareto Optima and Competitive Equilibria with Adverse Selection and Moral Hazard," with R. Townsend, Econometrica 52 (January 1984): 21-45.

"Recursive Competitive Equilibrium: The Case of Homogenous Households," with R. Mehra, Econometrica 48 (September 1980): 1365-80.

"A Note on Price Systems in Infinite Dimensional Space," with R. Lucas, International Economic Review 13 (June 1972): 416-22.

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Money, Banking, and Finance

"The Equity Premium in Retrospect," with R. Mehra, Handbook of the Economics of Finance. Volume 1B. Financial markets and asset pricing, 2003, pp. 889-938, Handbooks in Economics, vol. 21. (Amsterdam; London and New York: Elsevier, North Holland.)

"Is the Stock Market Overvalued?" with E.R. McGrattan, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review (Fall 2000): 20-40.

"Banking in Computable General Equilibrium Economics," with J. Diaz-Gimenez, T. Fitzgerald, and F. Alvarez, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 16, no. 3/4 (July/October 1992): 533-60.

"A Multiple Means of Payment Model," in W.A. Barnett and K. J. Singleton, eds., New Approaches to Monetary Economics, (Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1987), 42-51.

"Financial Intermediary Coalitions," with J. Boyd, Journal of Economic Theory 38 (April 1986): 211-32.

"The Equity Premium: A Puzzle," with R. Mehra, Journal of Monetary Economics 15 (1985): 145-61.

"The Equity Premium: A Puzzle: A Solution? " with R. Mehra, Journal of Monetary Economics 22 (1988): 133-36.

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Methodology and Policy

"Business Cycle Theory: Methods and Problems," August 1998. To appear in the International Institute for Economic Research XI Workshop Proceedings, Cycle, Growth and Technological Change.

"The Computational Experiment: An Econometric Tool," with F. Kydland, Journal of Economic Perspectives 10, no. 1 (Winter 1996): 68-86.

"The Discipline of Applied General Equilibrium," with T. J. Kehoe, Economic Theory 6, no. 1 (June 1995): 1-12.

"Economic Growth and Business Cycles," with T. F. Cooley, Chapter 1 in T. F. Cooley, ed., Frontiers of Business Cycle Research, (Princeton University Press, 1995), 1-38.

"The Econometrics of the Applied General Equilibrium Approach to Business Cycles," with F. Kydland, Scandinavian Journal of Economics 93, no. 2 (1991): 161-78.

"Dynamic Optimal Taxation, Rational Expectations, and Optimal Control," with F. Kydland, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 2 (February 1980): 79-91.

"Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," with F. Kydland, Journal of Political Economy 85 (June 1977): 473-91.

"Should Control Theory Be Used for Economic Stabilization?" in K. Brunner and A. H. Meltzer, eds., Optimal Policies, Control Theory and Technology Exports, (North-Holland: Amsterdam, 1977), 13-38. (Carnegie-Rochester, v.7.) "A Rejoinder," 101-02.

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Other Publications

"Some Observations on the Great Depression," Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review 23 (Winter 1999): 25-29.

"On Defining Real Consumption," Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review (May/June 1997): 47-54.

"Real Returns on Government Debt: A General Equilibrium Quantitative Exploration," with J. Diaz-Giménez, European Economic Review 41 (1997): 115-137.

"Stationary Solution to Overlapping Generations Model of Fiat Money: Experimental Evidence," with S. S. Lim and S. Sunder, Empirical Economics 19 (1994): 255-77.

"Changes in the Wealth of Nations," with S. Parente, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review (Spring 1993): 3-16.

"Cyclical Movements of the Labor Input and Its Implicit Real Price," with F. Kydland, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Review 29 (1993): 12-23.

"Technology Adoption and the Mechanics of Economic Development," with S. Parente, in A. Cukierman, Z. Hercowitz, and L. Leiderman, eds., Growth and Political Business Cycles. (MIT Press, 1992), 197-226.

"Stochastic Monotonicity and Stationary Distributions for Dynamic Economies," with H. Hopenhayn, Econometrica 60 (November 1992): 1387-1406.

"Real Business Cycle Theory: What Have We Learned?" Revista de Análisis Economico 6, no. 2 (1991): 3-19.

"Evaluating the Welfare Effects of Alternative Monetary Arrangements," with A. Imrohoroglu, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review 15 (Summer 1991): 3-10. Revision of "Seigniorage as a Tax: A Quantitative Evaluation," with A. Imrohoroglu, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 23, no. 3 (August 1991): 462-75.

"Recursive Methods for Computing Equilibrium of Business Cycle Models," with G. Hansen, Cuadernos Economicos de Ice 47, no. 1 (1991): 85-112.

"Measures of the Insurance Sector Output," with A. Hornstein, Geneva Papers on Insurance and Risk 59, 16 year (April 1991): 191-206.

"Business Cycles: Real Facts and a Monetary Myth," with F. Kydland, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review 14 (Spring 1990): 3-18.

"Time Consistency and Policy," with V. V. Chari and P. Kehoe, in R. Barro, ed., Modern Business Cycle Theory (Harvard University Press: 1989), 265-305.

"The Equity Premium: A Puzzle: A Solution?" with R. Mehra, Journal of Monetary Economics 22 (1988): 133-36.

"Robert M. Solow's Neoclassical Growth Model: An Influential Contribution to Economics," Scandanavian Journal of Economics 90 (1988): 7-12.

"The Work Week of Capital and Its Cyclical Implications," with F. Kydland, Journal of Monetary Economics 21 (1988): 343-60.

"Organizations in Economics," with B. Smith and J. H. Boyd, Canadian Journal of Economics 21 (1988): 477-91.

"Dynamic Coalitions: Engines of Growth," with J. Boyd, American Economic Review 77, no. 2(May 1987): 63-67, reprinted in Contractual Arrangements for Intertemporal Trade E. C. Prescott and N. Wallace, eds., (University of Minnesota Press: Minneapolis, 1987), 146-60.

"Organization Capital," with M. Visscher, Journal of Political Economy 88 (June 1980): 446-61.

"Equilibrium Under Uncertainty: Multi-Agent Statistical Decision Theory," with R. Townsend in A. Zellner, ed., Bayesian Analysis in Econometrics and Statistics: Essays in Honor of Harold Jeffreys, (North Holland: Amsterdam, 1980), 169-94.

"Earnings and Employment Dynamics of Manpower Trainees: An Exploratory Econometrics Analysis," with T. Cooley and T. McGuire, Evaluating Manpower Training Programs, (JAI Press: Greenwich, Connecticut, 1979), 119-47.

"Sequential Location Among Firms with Foresight," with M. Visscher, Bell Journal of Economics 8 (Autumn 1977): 378-93.

"Estimation in the Presence of Stochastic Parameter Variation," with T. Cooley, Econometrica 44 (January 1976): 167-84.

"Efficiency of the Natural Rate," Journal of Political Economy 83 (December 1975): 1229-36.

"Optimal Stabilization: A New Approach," with F. Kydland, Proceedings of the Fifth Annual Conference on Modeling and Simulation (Pittsburgh: 1974).

"Equilibrium Search and Unemployment," with R. Lucas, Journal of Economic Theory 7 (February 1974): 188-209.

"Market Structure and Monopoly Profits: A Dynamic Theory," Journal of Economic Theory 6 (December 1973): 546-57.

"Varying Parameter Regressions: A Theory and Some Applications," with T. F. Cooley, Annals of Economic and Social Measurement 2 (October 1973): 463-73.

"An Adaptive Regression Model," with T. F. Cooley, Review of Economics and Statistics 14 (June 1973): 364-71.

"Tests of an Adaptive Regression Model," with T. Cooley, Review of Economics and Statistics 55 (April 1973): 248-56.

"The Multi-Period Control Problem Under Uncertainty," Econometrica 40 (November 1972): 1043-58.

"Adaptive Decision Rules for Macroeconomic Planning," Western Economic Journal 9 (December 1971): 369-78.

"Investment under Uncertainty," with R. Lucas, Econometrica 39 (September 1971): 659-81.

"Multiple Regression with Inequality Constraints: Pretesting Bias, Hypothesis Testing and Efficiency," with M. Lovell, Journal of the American Statistical Association 65 (June 1970): 912-25.

"Money, Multiplier-Acclerator Interaction, and the Business Cycle," with M. Lovell, Southern Economic Journal 35 (July 1968): 60-72.

Collusion in Oligopoly: An Experiment on the Effect of Numbers and Information," with T. Dolbear, et al., Quarterly Journal of Economics 82 (May 1968): 240-59.

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Books and Symposiums: Edited and Collaborations

Great Depressons of the 20th Century, co-edited with T. Kehoe, Review of Economic Dynamics, forthcoming.

Applied General Equilibrium Symposium, co-edited with T. Kehoe, Journal of Economic Theory 6, no. 1 (1995).

Recursive Methods in Economic Dynamics, N. Stokey and R. E. Lucas, Jr. with E. C. Prescott (Harvard University Press,1989).

Contractual Arrangements for Intertemporal Trade, co-edited with N. Wallace (University of Minnesota Press: Minneapolis, 1987). 

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On the Possibility and Desirability of Stabilization Policy, with Finn Kydland, September, 1978.

Money, Expectations, and the Business Cycle, April 4, 1974.

Prosperity and Depression: 2002 Richard T. Ely Lecture, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Working Paper Number 618, January 2002.

The Depressing Effect of Agriculture Institutions on the Prewar Japanese Economy, with Fumio Hayashi, October 2004.

Capacity Constraints, Asymmetries, and the Business Cycle, with Gary D. Hansen, October 2000.

Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation, with Robert J. Hodrick, November 1980. 

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The Elasticity of Labor Supply and the Consequences for Tax Policy, Feburary 2005.

A FORTRAN Subroutine for Efficiently Computing HP-Filtered Time Series, with F. E. Kydland, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank Research Memorandum, April 1989.

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