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An Aggregate Model for Policy Analysis with Demographic Change

Staff Report 534 | Published December 14, 2016

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Edward C. Prescott Senior Monetary Advisor
An Aggregate Model for Policy Analysis with Demographic Change


Many countries are facing challenging fiscal financing issues as their populations age and the number of workers per retiree falls. Policymakers need transparent and robust analyses of alternative policies to deal with demographic changes. In this paper, we propose a simple framework that can easily be matched to aggregate data from the national accounts. We demonstrate the usefulness of our framework by comparing quantitative results for our aggregate model with those of a related model that includes within-age-cohort heterogeneity through productivity differences. When we assess proposals to switch from the current tax and transfer system in the United States to a mandatory saving-for-retirement system with no payroll taxation, we find that the aggregate predictions for the two models are close.

Published in: _The Journal of the Economics of Ageing_ (Vol. 11, May 2018, pp. 52-61),
[Additional Files]( [Staff Report 472: On Financing Retirement with an Aging Population](