We derive the quantitative implications of growth theory for U.S. corporate equity plus net debt over the period 1960–2001. There were large secular movements in corporate equity values relative to GDP, with dramatic declines in the 1970s and dramatic increases starting in the 1980s and continuing throughout the 1990s. During the same period, there was little change in the capital-output ratio or earnings share of output. We ask specifically whether the theory accounts for these observations. We find that it does, with the critical factor being changes in the U.S. tax and regulatory system. We find that the theory also accounts for the even larger movements in U.K. equity values relative to GDP in this period.
[M-files and Ftools](https://researchdatabase.minneapolisfed.org/concern/datasets/765371353).
See related papers:
* [Staff Report 294: _The 1929 Stock Market: Irving Fisher Was Right_](https://doi.org/10.21034/sr.294)
* [Staff Report 313: _Average Debt and Equity Returns: Puzzling?_](https://doi.org/10.21034/sr.313)
* Quarterly Review articles (Vol. 24, No. 4, Fall 2000) [_The Declining U.S. Equity Premium_](https://doi.org/10.21034/qr.2441) and [_Is the Stock Market Overvalued?_](https://doi.org/10.21034/qr.2442).
Published in: _Review of Economic Studies_ (Vol. 72, No. 3, July 2005, pp. 767-796), https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-937X.2005.00351.x.
[Additional files and data appendix](https://researchdatabase.minneapolisfed.org/concern/datasets/b2773v71t).