Beige Book Report: Minneapolis
September 13, 1995
The Ninth District is stilt experiencing growth in many sectors but softness is evident in a few. Residential, commercial and heavy building continues to show strength. Business for mining and energy firms remains favorable, with increased oil drilling giving western North Dakota an extra boost. In forest products, paper mills are pressing their output limits, while lumber and building board producers report increased output compared to the spring. As the summer has worn on, favorable weather has improved the prospects for district farmers. Tourist spending is up in the eastern half of the district, but retail and auto sales are generally described as soft. Manufacturing sales are not increasing as rapidly as a year ago. Employment growth is modest; some shortages of skilled and entry- level workers are reported and unemployment rates remain low. Wage increases reportedly are small, as are price increases, and manufacturers report no delays in delivery of raw materials.
Construction
"Builders are having trouble finding enough carpenters and
subcontractors to work on the homes being built right now. No one
has time to take on another contract." That description of
residential building in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area by a builder's
association representative also characterizes home-building in many
district communities. Industrial and commercial building is strong
too. Numerous 50,000 to 60,000 square foot industrial or warehouse
buildings are under construction in Minneapolis-St. Paul suburbs,
where some 5 million square feet of retail space is also reportedly
being built. New retail buildings are also going up in smaller
cities from Escanaba, Mich., to Great Falls, Mont. Publicly let
contracts in Minnesota and the Dakotas through July, largely for
heavy projects, are even with 1994's near-record levels.
Natural resource industries
The oil boomlet continues in western North Dakota, with drilling for
new wells up markedly from 1994 levels and production up somewhat.
Iron ore shipments are at the highest level so far this decade, with
shipments from Minnesota mines expected to hit 47 million tons.
Copper mines are running at capacity.
Lumber production is up from this spring, and mill operators report improved prices and sales. Hardwoods are the one exception. Building board plants continue to produce at capacity and have eliminated the sharp price discounts offered this spring. Paper mills are generally running flat out.
Agriculture
For district farmers, conditions are also better than last spring
when adverse weather was threatening crops. Most crops are in good
shape, in spite of some periods of intense heat and a few instances
of destructive hail. While an early frost could still upset the
apple cart, many observers expect yields of major crops to be near
long-run averages, though somewhat below 1994's records. Combined
with grain prices that are about 25 percent above 1994 levels, near-
average yields will mean improved income and debt service
capabilities for farmers.
In livestock, hog prices have risen substantially from earlier in the year in spite of continuing high slaughter levels, and producers are generally making better profits. But cattle prices remain depressed.
Manufacturing
"Overall our business is good, but not nearly as strong as last
year," says a district manufacturer. "We had real softening in the
second quarter, but sales picked up significantly in the last five
weeks," states another.. These statements suggest Ninth District
manufacturing sales are generally good, but not growing at the pace
they were a year ago. Earnings of firms producing industrial
machinery and high-tech products, like biomedical devices, however,
have been very strong, while they have been weak for some consumer
goods manufacturers.
Consumer spending
"Our sales reflect continued solid performance. . . but with higher
than expected promotional markdowns. They also reflect a general
softness in the retail market," says a major district retailer. A
mall manager agrees: "Traffic at the mall is OK, but probably not up
to last year." A manager with a regional department store chain
reports slow sales of appliances, which is echoed by other sources
who also note that apparel sales are lower than projected.
Automobile dealers report a roller coaster year with sales very slow in the spring, some strengthening in June and July, but apparent weakening again in August. "People are just being very conservative" says one Montana dealer.
Tourism
"I've never seen so many people; this has to be the best season
ever," comments one northeastern Minnesota business owner as people
have flocked north to escape this summer's unseasonably warm
weather. Tourist operators and association officials across northern
Minnesota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of
Michigan confirm this report. But their counterparts on the plains
are less expansive. Montana officials report tourist activity
somewhat below 1994 levels. And in South Dakota visits to major
attractions such as Mount Rushmore and the Badlands are a few
percentage points below 1994 levels, although visits to state parks
are up. Some observers in these areas noted strengthening in late
July and in August, but they think that the, season as a whole will
not catch up to last year's levels.
Employment, wages and prices
"Firms look high, low for skilled workers" was a recent headline in
one western Wisconsin newspaper that typified the situation faced by
many district employers. With unemployment rates in western
Wisconsin falling below 4 percent for the first time since 1988,
that state's labor agency is conducting workshops for employers
entitled "Solutions for a Tight Labor Market."
Employment is up modestly in most areas of the district and in most job categories compared to a year ago. Unemployment rates remain below year-ago levels in many areas of the district and well below national levels in all areas except Michigan's Upper Peninsula. "We never used to see "help wanted" signs in Missoula, but we do now," says one Montana small business owner, who reports having to give modest raises to entry-level workers to avoid losing them. Another small business owner in North Dakota lists machinists, welders and CAD/CAM technicians as being particularly hard to hire. But most employers insist that overall wage increases are low.
"We aren't getting any price increases on the material we buy," says one North Dakota manufacturer, "and lead times from order to delivery are back to normal." That seems to be the case for raw materials and intermediate goods in most sectors, with the continued exception of paper and packaging materials. Petroleum product prices have declined 3 cents to 4 cents a gallon from increases posted in late spring and are close to year-earlier levels.