Beige Book Report: New York
September 13, 1995
On balance, reports on economic conditions in the Second District suggest that growth has slowed in recent weeks. Retail sales weakened considerably in August, with more than half the contacts reporting sales declines. Although the unemployment rate in New Jersey edged down slightly during August, New York State's unemployment rate jumped nearly a full percentage point. Finally, eighty percent of senior loan officers at small and midsized banks report steady or weaker aggregate loan demand over the past two months.
Consumer Spending
District retail sales weakened significantly in August. Year-over-
year sales results ranged from losses of 2 percent to gains of
nearly 5 percent, with more than half of the retail contacts
reporting sales declines. Virtually all of the contacts report that
August sales were below planned levels. In general, weaker-than-
expected sales left inventories, particularly for apparel, above
desired levels by month's end. Although disappointing back to school
sales were the most common explanation for the weakness, few
categories of goods sold well. One exception was software sales,
which were spurred by the introduction of Windows 95.
Construction and Real Estate
The market for commercial real estate in Manhattan weakened in July
but showed signs of strength in early August. The vacancy rate in
midtown jumped 0.5 percentage points to 14.0 percent in July as
leasing activity remained sluggish, while the downtown rate edged up
to 24.7 percent despite an increase in leasing activity. Midtown
showed evidence of a rebound in early August, however, including one
very large transaction which removed the second biggest block of
available space from the market.
Residential construction across much of New York State and northern New Jersey remained slow during July and August. In New York, the market for new construction is weakest in the central part of the State, while activity in Buffalo and Rochester is sluggish but has generally remained at 1994 levels. One builder in northern New Jersey said housing construction during August was "as dry as the weather". In contrast, residential construction in New York's downstate area showed greater strength than elsewhere in the District, buoyed by subsidy programs for affordable housing as well as continued strength at the upper end of the market.
Other Business Activity
Based on the household survey, the unemployment rate in New York
State jumped nearly a full percentage point to 7.1 percent in
August, as the number of unemployed individuals rose sharply. In
contrast, New Jersey's unemployment rate, which had increased
steadily since March, edged down 0.2 percentage points to 6.6
percent. Looking ahead, the recently-announced merger of Chemical
Bank and Chase Manhattan Bank is expected to cut approximately 4,000
jobs in New York City alone--particularly in retail banking
operations--over the next three years.
Purchasing managers in the Buffalo and New York metropolitan areas reported that manufacturing production contracted sharply in August. However, in the New York metropolitan area, strength in the region's larger non-manufacturing sector more than offset weakness in manufacturing. Although commodity price pressures moderated in Buffalo, they increased slightly downstate.
Extremely dry weather has adversely affected field crops across much of the District. As a result, corn, hay, and soybean production is expected to decline from last year's levels.
On a more positive note, tourism--particularly from abroad--has been unusually strong this year. Hotel occupancy in Manhattan for the January through July period was up over four percent from the same period in 1994, while such other tourism-related industries as restaurants, theaters, and museums report that traffic has been brisk. An influx of tourists is expected to visit New York's Finger Lakes region for this month's Ryder Cup golf tournament.
Financial Developments
Compared with two months ago, aggregate loan demand is steady at
about fifty percent of the small and medium sized banks surveyed in
the District and lower at thirty percent. Consumer lending softened
considerably over the period and is now the weakest segment of the
market; demand for consumer loans is lower at roughly forty percent
of the banks and higher at only about ten percent. Similarly, demand
for refinancings declined and many respondents noted that the level
of refinancings was low. Over ninety percent of the loan officers
surveyed report that demand for refinancings remained the same or
decreased over the past two months. In contrast, demand for
commercial and industrial loans firmed to become the strongest
segment of the market. The share of banks reporting increases in
demand for commercial and industrial loans is just equal to the
share reporting decreases.
Average loan rates are lower at half of the participating banks and are the same at the other half. The spread between average lending and deposit rates is steady at sixty-five percent of the banks and narrower at nearly thirty percent. Almost all of the respondents maintained their credit standards and all are just as willing or more willing to lend. For the most part, delinquency rates are stable or lower.