Beige Book Report: Atlanta
January 21, 1998
Reports from contacts across the Sixth District suggest that the Southeastern economy continued to expand moderately through the end of the year. Many merchants reported sales increased over last year's levels, but below expectations. Home sales have been flat recently, while nonresidential construction remained healthy. Manufacturing activity varied by industry. The tourism and hospitality sectors continue to perform well. Overall, loan demand grew moderately through the end of the year. Wage pressures and prices continue to be held in check despite reports of persistent labor shortages.
Consumer Spending
According to most District retailers, sales during December exceeded
year-ago levels; however, many merchants reported sales were lower
than their plans. Several retailers blamed slow apparel sales on
unseasonably warm weather. Traditional retailers were hurt by the
increase in nontraditional gifts such as spas and vacation packages.
Reports indicate that high-end retailers and small specialty stores
experienced a strong holiday season. Competition was intense and
resulted in significant discounting by many retailers before and
after Christmas. Despite lackluster sales, most retailers report
that inventories are close to target, and sales will likely increase
slightly in the first quarter on a year-over-year basis.
Construction
Builders reported that new home sales were flat-to-down compared
with last December and construction activity was spotty. There are
segments of the market where inventories are uncomfortably high.
Looking forward, most Realtors expect home sales to exceed last
year's levels, both in the first quarter and for the year. Builders
anticipate the pace of construction in the first quarter will be
similar to that seen during the fourth quarter. Multifamily development
shows little change from the last Beige Book. Office and industrial
construction remains dominated by build-to-suit projects, although
speculative development is becoming more widespread.
Manufacturing
Manufacturing activity varied with strength in some sectors, weakness
in others. Contacts report that the economy in certain areas of
Alabama is in surprisingly good shape considering the number of
apparel job losses; the available labor supply has been absorbed
by new and expanding firms. New Orleans contacts note that optimism
remains high in the oil and gas sector, where equipment fabrication
and manufacturing bookings remain at a strong pace. Although Georgia
reports indicate falling new orders and shrinking factory workweeks
for apparel producers, and decreasing factory payrolls and employment
for some producers of consumer electronics and appliances, new orders
are increasing for manufacturers of industrial machinery and fabricated
metal products. Contacts in Alabama express concern that because
of the Huntsville area's great exposure to the aerospace/defense
sectors, some businesses that export or import could be impacted
by problems in Asia.
Tourism and Business Travel
The tourism and hospitality industries continue to perform well.
Tourism is still strong at central Florida theme parks, where several
large expansions are underway. In Miami and Palm Beach, tourism
continues to set records. Hotel and motel bookings through March
are said to be ahead of last year's at the same time. In Louisiana,
casino boat revenues in Baton Rouge are up by double-digits from
a year ago, and Alexandria's new riverfront convention center is
expected to boost the number of conventions booked to that part
of the state.
Financial
Most banking contacts in the Sixth District report that overall
loan demand grew moderately in recent weeks. Consumer loan demand
increased slightly, while commercial lending remained strong and
stable. Mortgage loan demand continued to grow.
Wages and Prices
Reports of labor shortages are continuing in parts of the District.
Wage pressures are being held in check, however, according to most
reports. In New Orleans, shipbuilders are seeking permission to
hire foreign workers to fill their need for welders, shipfitters,
electricians, and other workers. Contacts in Nashville report a
shortage of labor for all major trade contractor categories. General
contractors are reportedly concerned that subcontractors may not
be able to acquire enough qualified workers to handle the volume
of construction contracted out. Also, in Nashville, trucking executives
report that the continued driver shortage is constraining growth.
One Nashville company has been forced to idle over 10 percent of
its equipment because of the labor shortage.
Prices for materials declined for some manufacturers. Some contacts
note that businesses have not been able to increase prices, even
though they have been trying; they are reportedly only able to achieve
additional earnings through productivity increases. Reportedly,
fierce competition is holding down price increases for finished
goods.