Beige Book Report: Philadelphia
January 21, 1998
Economic activity in the Third District continued to grow at a moderate rate in December and January. Manufacturers reported increases in shipments and orders in January compared with December, although there has been a reduction in orders from Asia. Retailers generally met expectations for increases in holiday sales of around 4 percent, in current dollars, from the prior year. Auto sales have been steady. Bankers indicated that business and real estate lending were growing in January, although consumer lending had eased seasonally.
Looking ahead, most of the Third District business contacts surveyed for this report expect moderate growth to continue. Manufacturers expect the overall pace of business to stay on an upward trend, although some firms with Asian customers said orders from that region will probably decline further. Retailers expect moderate growth in 1998. Bankers said they anticipate continued gains in business and real estate lending.
Manufacturing
Third District manufacturing firms contacted in early January
reported improved business, on balance. About one-third said
shipments and orders were rising, and fewer than one-fourth reported
declines. Order backlogs, which had been falling since last fall,
turned up for area firms, on the whole, although the rebound
appeared to be slight. Employment at area industrial plants
increased slightly in January compared with December, but work hours
have been steady. Manufacturers continued to report difficulty
finding skilled technical workers.
Among the major industrial groups in the region, demand seemed to be strongest for lumber, paper products, and nonelectrical machinery. Producers of industrial equipment and building materials reported declines in orders from Asia, and food processors generally reported a seasonal slowdown in their industry. Some area firms that face import competition expressed concern that foreign producers will increase shipments and reduce prices, but none of the companies contacted for this report has seen this occur yet.
Industrial prices have been generally steady, according to local firms. Three-fourths of the firms polled in early January said they were holding the line on the prices of their products, and around nine out of ten said the costs of the goods they purchase have been steady as well.
Looking ahead, Third District manufacturers expect moderately increased demand for their products, although they do not expect order backlogs to grow. On balance, firms in the region plan to add workers during the next six months and slightly increase capital spending.
Retail
Retail sales in the region met merchants' expectations for the
Christmas shopping period overall, although performance varied
considerably among stores. Most stores specializing in computers and
other consumer electronic items had good year-over-year increases,
but some apparel stores and department stores had just marginal
gains despite heavy discounting. On the whole, according to
reports from store executives, retail sales in the region probably
increased around 4 percent, in current dollars, from 1996.
Area merchants expect some seasonal slowing in January, but they expect sales to move back up quickly and return to a trend of moderate growth. Nonetheless, merchants said competition is strong, and profit margins remain under pressure.
Third District auto dealers indicated that sales of new cars and light trucks have been running at a steady pace in recent weeks, but sales of used cars have slipped. With continued incentives from manufacturers, most dealers expect sales to remain near the current pace, although some dealers anticipate a slowing in sales of sport utility vehicles and light trucks.
Finance
Third District bankers contacted in early January generally said
that loan volumes were rising at their institutions. Most indicated
that commercial and industrial lending was moving up moderately,
with new business coming mainly from middle market companies seeking
either working capital or short-term financing to facilitate
acquisitions. Commercial real estate lending was also said to be on
the rise, with borrowing by well-capitalized developers of office
and retail properties as well as some residential developments.
Several bankers noted that residential mortgage lending has moved up
recently, for both refinancing and home purchases. In contrast,
consumer lending was described as slow, due mainly to seasonal
factors. Several bankers noted that deterioration in personal loan
portfolios, particularly credit card loans, appeared to be leveling
off.
In their outlook for 1998, Third District bankers see continuing growth in commercial lending, but they expect competition among lenders to remain strong. They are concerned that loan margins will remain under pressure in the wake of the recent general decline in interest rates. Bankers expect real estate lending to continue moving up also, as construction activity expands and home sales increase in some parts of the District.