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Algorithms for Explaining Forecast Revisions

Working Paper 459 | Published May 1, 1990

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Richard M. Todd Senior Economist
Algorithms for Explaining Forecast Revisions


Forecasts are routinely revised, and these revisions are often the subject of informal analysis and discussion. This paper argues (1) that forecast revisions are analyzed because they help forecasters and forecast users to evaluate forecasts and forecasting procedures, and (2) that these analyses can be sharpened by using the forecasting model to systematically express its forecast revision as the sum of components identified with specific subsets of new information, such as data revisions and forecast errors. An algorithm for this purpose is explained and illustrated.

Published in: _Journal of Forecasting_ (Vol. 11, No. 8, December 1992, pp. 675-685),