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Evaluation Plan: Minneapolis Guaranteed Basic Income Pilot


Andrew Goodman-Bacon Senior Research Economist, Institute
Vanessa Palmer Data Director, Center for Indian Country Development
Ryan Nunn Assistant Vice President, Community Development and Engagement
Evaluation Plan: Minneapolis Guaranteed Basic Income Pilot


This document outlines the pre-analysis plan for the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis’ analysis of the City of Minneapolis’ Guaranteed Basic Income (GBI) Pilot. The study contains 530 households drawn from 9 ZIP codes in Minneapolis. Treated households receive $500 per month for 24 months. Control households receive $150 for completing surveys at 6 months, 12 months, and 24 months. Participants were randomly assigned to treatment within 8 strata defined by poverty, presence of children, and two ZIP code groups. Early enrollment data showed significant differential attrition. The plan addresses biases from selective attrition by (a) conditioning on age, baseline income, and education; (b) controlling for the baseline outcome variable; and (c) estimating treatment/control contrasts for the change in outcomes (difference-in-differences).