| Arranged by Robert Litterman and Arnold Zellner Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Economics and Statistics Departments, University of Minnesota |
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| Meeting Time: | Friday and Saturday, May 17-18, 1985 |
| Meeting Place: | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 250 Marquette Avenue Minneapolis, Minnesota 55480 |
| Friday, May 17 | |
| 8:30 a.m. | Comparing Alternative Models |
| “Simultaneous Equations Model Selection—A Bayesian Approach” Terrence Kinal and Kajal Lahiri, SUNY–Albany |
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| “Comparing Alternative Dynamic Models of Production” Peter Rossi, Northwestern University |
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| 10:30 a.m. | Time Series |
| “Bayesian Seasonal Adjustment” Edwin T. Jaynes, Washington University |
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| “Estimating Functions of Sparse Time Series” Robert B. Miller, University of Wisconsin |
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| “A Time Series Measure of Federal Reserve Policy” Robert Litterman, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis |
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| 12:00 p.m. | Lunch |
| 1:30 p.m. | Special Topics |
| “Artificial Intelligence and Bayesian Statistical Analysis” George T. Duncan, Carnegie-Mellon University |
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| “Preference Reversals and the Independence Axiom” Charles A. Holt, University of Virginia |
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| “Bayesian Interpolation as an Aid to Nonlinear Maximization” Christopher A. Sims, University of Minnesota |
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| 3:30 p.m. | Predictive PDFs and Forecasting |
| “A Study of Mixture-Lognormal and Mixture-Normal Forms for the Forecast Distribution of GNP: A Data Analysis According to the Operational-Subjective Statistical Method” Frank Lad, Federal Reserve Board |
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| “A Bayesian Predictive Density for the Mean Squared Errors of Prediction of a Linear Model” Hiroki Tsurumi, Rutgers University |
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| “Forecasting with Bayesian State Space Models” Richard Highfield, University of Chicago |
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| 5:00 p.m. | Cocktails |
| 6:00 p.m. | Dinner |
| John Pratt, Harvard Business School, will lead a discussion of nonparametric Bayesian inference prompted by recent papers by Persi Diaconis and David Freedman on the consistency of Bayes estimates | |
| Saturday, May 18 | |
| 8:30 a.m. | Inference Problems |
| “A Bayesian Implementation of One-way Analysis of Variance and Multiple Comparisons” William DuMouchel, MIT |
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| “Bayesian Robust Estimation of the Mean” Jessica Utts, Stanford, and Wesley Johnson, University of California at Davis |
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| “Weak Group Models” C. Villegas, Simon Fraser University |
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| 10:30 a.m. | Computers and Numerical Integration |
| “Exact Inferences About Principal Components and Related Quantities Using Posterior Distributions Calculated By Simulation” Robert E. Kass, Carnegie-Mellon University |
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| “Bootstrap Methods Using Prior Information” John F. Monahan, North Carolina State University |
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| “Posterior Moments Computed by Mixed Integration” Herman K. van Dyk, Erasmus University, Rotterdam |
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| 12:15 p.m. | Business luncheon |