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Refereed Publications

Research Division economists have been publishing peer-reviewed scholarly articles in top economics journals for over fifty years. Below are the most recent five years of refereed publications authored by Research Division economists. Most of these articles are available by subscription only; however, articles that have a preprint or draft version published by the Minneapolis Fed will have a link to read that version for free.

Forthcoming

Asturias, Jose, Sewon Hur, Timothy J. Kehoe, and Kim J. Ruhl. Forthcoming. "Firm Entry and Exit and Aggregate Growth." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics.
Staff Report version

Berger, David, Kyle Herkenhoff, Chengdai Huan, and Simon Mongey. Forthcoming. "Testing and Reopening in an SEIR Model." Review of Economic Dynamics.

Bianchi, Javier and Jorge Mondragon. Forthcoming. "Monetary Independence and Rollover Crises" Quarterly Journal of Economics.
Working Paper version

Bhandari, Anmol, David Evans, and Mikhail Golosov. Forthcoming. "Inequality, Business Cycles, and Monetary-Fiscal Policy." Econometrica.

Cai, Zhifeng and Jonathan Heathcote. Forthcoming. "College Tuition and Income Inequality." American Economic Review.
Staff Report version

Corbae, Dean and Pablo D'Erasmo. Forthcoming. "Capital Buffers in a Quantitative Model of Banking Industry Dynamics." Econometrica.
Working Paper version

McKay, Alisdair and Johannes F. Wieland. Forthcoming. "Forward Guidance and Durable Goods Demand." American Economic Review: Insights.

McKay, Alisdair and Johannes F. Wieland. Forthcoming. "Lumpy Durable Consumption Demand and the Limited Ammunition of Monetary Policy." Econometrica.
Staff Report version

Payne Carter, Susan and Abigail Wozniak. Forthcoming. "Making Big Decisions: The Impact of Moves on Marriage among U.S. Army Personnel." The Journal of Human Resources.

Senel, Gonca and Mark L. J. Wright. Forthcoming. "With Age Comes Immaturity: Do Countries with Older Populations Issue Shorter Maturity Debt?" Economics Letters.

2021

Alvarez, Fernando, David Argente, and Francesco Lippi (2021). "A Simple Planning Problem for COVID-19 Lockdown, Testing, and Tracing." American Economic Review: Insights, 3(3): 367-382.

Amador, Manuel and Christopher Phelan (2021). "Reputation and Sovereign Default." Econometrica, 89(4): 1979-2010.
Staff Report version

Aguiar, Mark, Mark Bils, Kerwin Kofi Charles, and Erik Hurst (2021). "Leisure Luxuries and the Labor Supply of Young Men." Journal of Political Economy, 129(2): 337-382.

Ai, Hengjie and Anmol Bhandari (2021). "Asset Pricing with Endogenously Uninsurable Tail Risk." Econometrica, 89(3): 1471-1505.
Staff Report version

Altermatt, Lukas, Kohei Iwasaki, and Randall Wright (2021). "Asset Pricing in Monetary Economies." Journal of International Money and Finance, 115: article 102352.

Alvarez, Fernando and Gadi Barlevy (2021). "Mandatory Disclosure and Financial Contagion." Journal of Economic Theory, 194: article 105237.

Atkeson, Andrew G., Karen Kopecky, and Tao Zha (2021). "Behavior and the Transmission of COVID-19." AEA Papers and Proceedings, 111: 356-60.

Bassetto, Marco and Leslie McGranahan (2021). "Mobility, Population Growth, and Public Capital Spending in the United States." Review of Economic Dynamics, 41: 255-277.

Benati, Luca, Robert E. Lucas Jr., Juan Pablo Nicolini, Warren E. Weber (2021). "International Evidence on Long-Run Money Demand." Journal of Monetary Economics, 117: 43-63.
Staff Report version

Bhandari, Anmol and Ellen R. McGrattan (2021). "Sweat Equity in U.S. Private Business." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 136(2): 727–781.
Staff Report version

Boerma, Job and Loukas Karabarbounis (2021). "Inferring Inequality with Home Production." Econometrica, 89(5): 2517-2556.
Working Paper version

Brookes, Wyatt J., Joseph P. Kaboski, Illenin O. Kondo, Yao Amber Li, and Wei Qian (2021). "Infrastructure Investment and Labor Monopsony Power." IMF Economic Review, 69(3): 470-504.

Chari, V.V., Rishabh Kirpalani, and Christopher Phelan (2021). "The Hammer and the Scalpel: On the Economics of Indiscriminate versus Targeted Isolation Policies During Pandemics." Review of Economic Dynamics, 42: 1-14.
Staff Report version

Christiano, Lawrence J., Mathias Trabandt, and Karl Walentin (2021). "Involuntary Unemployment and the Business Cycle." Review of Economic Dynamics, 39: 26-54.

Christiano, Lawrence J., Martin S. Eichenbaum, and Mathias Trabandt (2021). "Why is Unemployment so Countercyclical?" Review of Economic Dynamics, 41: 4-37.

Colas, Mark, Sebastian Findeisen, and Dominik Sachs (2021). "Optimal Need-Based Financial Aid." Journal of Political Economy, 129(2): 492-533.
Institute Working Paper version

Colas, Mark and Kevin Hutchinson (2021). "Heterogeneous Workers and Federal Income Taxes in a Spatial Equilibrium." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 13(2): 100-134.
Institute Working Paper version

Corbae, Dean and Pablo D'Erasmo (2021). "Reorganization or Liquidation: Bankruptcy Choice and Firm Dynamics." The Review of Economic Studies, 88(5): 2239-2274.
Working Paper version

De Nardi, Mariacristina, Giulio Fella, Marike Knoef, Gonzalo Paz-Pardo, and Raun Van Oiijen (2021). "Family and Government Insurance: Wage, Earnings, and Income Risks in the Netherlands and the U.S." Journal of Public Economics, 193: article 104327.
Institute Working Paper version

Fogli, Alessandra and Laura Veldkamp (2021). "Germs, Social Networks and Growth." The Review of Economic Studies, 88(3): 1074–1100.
Staff Report version

Freedman, Seth, Andrew Goodman-Bacon, and Noah Hammarlund (2021). "Observational Studies of the Effect of Medicaid on Health: Controls Are Not Enough." Journal of Labor Economics, 39(S2): S619–S650.

Goodman-Bacon, Andrew (2021). "Difference-in-Differences with Variation in Treatment Timing." Journal of Econometrics, 225(2): 254-277.

Goodman-Bacon, Andrew (2021). "The Long-Run Effects of Childhood Insurance Coverage: Medicaid Implementation, Adult Health, and Labor Market Outcomes." American Economic Review, 111(8): 2550-2593.

Guren, Adam M., Alisdair McKay, Emi Nakamura, and Jón Steinsson (2021). "Housing Wealth Effects: The Long View." The Review of Economic Studies, 88(2): 669-707.
Staff Report version

Guren, Adam M., Alisdair McKay, Emi Nakamura, and Jón Steinsson (2021). "What Do We Learn from Cross-Regional Empirical Estimates in Macroeconomics?" NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2020, 35: 217-223.

Guvenen, Fatih, Fatih Karahan, Serdar Ozkan, and Jae Song (2021). "What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal about Life-Cycle Earnings Risk?" Econometrica, 89(5): 2303-2339.
Working Paper version

Guvenen, Fatih, Greg Kaplan, and Jae Song (2021). "The Glass Ceiling and the Paper Floor: Changing Gender Composition of Top Earners since the 1980s." NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2020, 35: 309-373.

Han, Suyoun and Morris M. Kleiner (2021). "Analyzing the Influence of Occupational Licensing Duration and Grandfathering on Wage Determination." Industrial Relations, 60(2): 147-187.

Heathcote, Jonathan and Hitoshi Tsujiyama (2021). "Optimal Income Taxation: Mirrlees Meets Ramsey." Journal of Political Economy, 129(11): 3141-3184.
Staff Report version

Hendricks, Lutz, Christopher Herrington, Todd Schoellman (2021). "College Quality and Attendance Patterns: A Long-Run View." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 13(1): 184-215.
Institute Working Paper version

Herkenhoff, Kyle, Gordon M. Phillips, and Ethan Cohen-Cole (2021). "The Impact of Consumer Credit Access on Self-Employment and Entrepreneurship." Journal of Financial Economics, 141(1): 345-371.

Herrendorf, Berthold, Richard Rogerson, and Ákos Valentinyi (2021). "A Structural Change in Investment and Consumption - A Unified Analysis." The Review of Economic Studies, 88(3): 1311-1346.

Klenow, Peter J. and Huiyu Li (2021). "Innovative Growth Accounting." NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2020, 35: 245-295.

Koijen, Ralph S. J. and Motohiro Yogo (2021). "The Evolution from Life Insurance to Financial Engineering." Geneva Risk & Insurance Review, 46(2): 89-111.

Martellini, Paolo and Guido Menzio (2021). "Jacks of All Trades and Masters of One: Declining Search Frictions and Unequal Growth" American Economic Review: Insights, 3(3): 339-352.
Staff Report version

McKay, Alisdair and Ricardo Reis (2021). "Optimal Automatic Stabilizers." The Review of Economic Studies, 88(5): 2375-2406.

Mongey, Simon, Laura Pilossoph, and Alexander Weinberg (2021). "Which Workers Bear the Burden of Social Distancing?" Journal of Economic Inequality, 19(3): 509-526.

Perla, Jesse, Christopher Tonetti, and Michael E. Waugh (2021). "Equilibrium Technology Diffusion, Trade, and Growth." American Economic Review, 111(1): 73-128.

Ruffini, Krista, Aaron Sojourner, and Abigail Wozniak (2021). "Who's In and Who's Out Under Workplace COVID Symptom Screening?" Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 40(2): 614-641.
Institute Working paper version

Wright, Randall, Philipp Kircher, Benoît Julien, and Veronica Guerrieri (2021). "Directed Search and Competitive Search Equilibrium: A Guided Tour." Journal of Economic Literature, 59 (1): 90-148.

2020

Aguiar, Mark and Manuel Amador (2020). "Self-Fulfilling Debt Dilution: Maturity and Multiplicity in Debt Models." American Economic Review, 110(9): 2783-2818.
Staff Report version

Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, and Stelios Fourakis (2020). "On the Welfare Losses from External Sovereign Borrowing." IMF Economic Review, 68: 163-194.

Aizawa, Naoki and Hanming Fang (2020). "Equilibrium Labor Market Search and Health Insurance Reform." Journal of Political Economy, 128(11): 4258-4336.
Working Paper version

Amador, Manuel, Javier Bianchi, Luigi Bocola, and Fabrizio Perri (2020). “Exchange Rate Policies at the Zero Lower Bound.” The Review of Economic Studies, 87(4): 1605-1645.
Working Paper version

Amaral, Pedro S., Dean Corbae, and Erwan Quintin (2020). "Cash-Flow Tranching and the Macroeconomy." International Economic Review, 61(4): 1815-1843.

Angeletos, George-Marios, Luigi Iovino, and Jennifer La'O (2020). "Learning Over the Business Cycle: Policy Implications." Journal of Economic Theory, 190: article 105115.

Atkeson, Andrew (2020). "Alternative Facts Regarding the Labor Share." Review of Economic Dynamics, 37(S1): S167-S180.

Attanasio, Orazio, and Elena Pastorino (2020). “Nonlinear Pricing in Village Economies.” Econometrica, 88(1): 207-263.
Institute Working Paper version

Ayres, Joao, Constantino Hevia, and Juan Pablo Nicolini (2020). "Real Exchange Rates and Primary Commodity Prices." Journal of International Economics, 122(1): article 103261.
Staff Report version

Baley, Isaac, Laura Veldkamp, and Michael Waugh (2020). "Can Global Uncertainty Promote International Trade?" Journal of International Economics, 126: article 103347.

Bethune, Zachary, Michael Choi, and Randall Wright (2020). "Frictional Goods Markets: Theory and Applications." The Review of Economic Studies, 87(2): 691-720.

Bhandari, Anmol, Serdar Birinci, Ellen R. McGrattan, and Kurt See (2020). "What Do Survey Data Tell Us about US Businesses?" AER: Insights, 2(4): 443-458.
Staff Report version

Bianchi, Javier and Enrique G. Mendoza (2020). “A Fisherian Approach to Financial Crises: Lessons from the Sudden Stops Literature.” Review of Economic Dynamics, 37(S1): S254-283.
Working Paper version

Bigio, Saki and Jennifer La'O (2020). "Distortions in Production Networks." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 135(4): 2187-2253.

Boerma, Job and Loukas Karabarbounis (2020). "Labor Market Trends and the Changing Value of Time." Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 115: article 103885.
Working Paper version

Buera, Francisco and Juan Pablo Nicolini (2020). “Liquidity Traps and Monetary Policy: Managing a Credit Crunch.” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 12(3): 110-138.
Staff Report version

Cai, Jing and Morris M. Kleiner (2020). "The Labor Market Consequences of Regulating Similar Occupations: the Licensing of Occupational and Physical Therapists." Journal of Labor Research, 41: 352-381.

Chang, Yongsung, Sun-Bin Kim, Kyooho Kwon, Richard Rogerson (2020). "Cross-Sectional and Aggregate Labor Supply." European Economic Review, 126, article 103457.

Chari, V. V., Alessandro Dovis, and Patrick J. Kehoe (2020). “On the Optimality of Financial Repression.” Journal of Political Economy, 128(2): 710-739.

Chari, V. V., Alessandro Dovis, and Patrick J. Kehoe (2020). “Rethinking Optimal Currency Areas.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 111: 80-94.

Chari, V. V., Juan Pablo Nicolini, and Pedro Teles (2020). “Optimal Capital Taxation Revisited.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 116: 147-165.
Staff Report version

Conesa, Juan Carlos, Timothy J. Kehoe, Vegard M. Nygaard, and Gajendran Raveendranathan (2020). “Implications of Increasing College Attainment for Aging in General Equilibrium.” European Economic Review, 122: article 103363.
Staff Report version

Corbae, Dean and Pablo D’Erasmo (2020). “Rising Bank Concentration.” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 115: article 103877.
Staff Report version

Crouzet, Nicolas and Neil Mehrotra (2020). "Small and Large Firms over the Business Cycle." American Economic Review, 110 (11): 3549-3601.
Working Paper version

De Nardi, Mariacristina, Giulio Fella, and Gonzalo Paz-Pardo (2020). "Nonlinear Household Earnings Dynamics, Self-Insurance, and Welfare." Journal of the European Economic Association, 18(2): 890-926.

Glover, Andrew, Jonathan Heathcote, Dirk Krueger, and Jose-Victor Rios-Rull (2020). "Intergenerational Redistribution in the Great Recession." Journal of Political Economy, 128(10): 3730-3778.
Staff Report version

Goda, Gopi Shah, Matthew R. Levy, Colleen Flaherty Manchester, Aaron Sojourner, and Joshua Tasoff (2020). “Who Is a Passive Saver under Opt-In and Auto-Enrollment?” Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 173: 301-321.
Institute Working Paper version

Gu, Chao, Han Han, and Randall Wright (2020). "The Effects of News when Liquidity Matters." International Economic Review, 61(4): 1411-1435.

Guvenen, Fatih, Burhanettin Kuruscu, David Wiczer, and Satoshi Tanaka (2020). “Multidimensional Skill Mismatch.” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 12(1): 210-244
Working Paper Version.

Heathcote, Jonathan, Fabrizio Perri, Giovanni L. Violante (2020). "The Rise of US Earnings Inequality: Does the Cycle Drive the Trend?" Review of Economic Dynamics, 37(S1): S181-S204.
Staff Report version

Heathcote, Jonathan, Kjetil Storesletten, and Giovanni L. Violante (2020). "How Should Tax Progressivity Respond to Rising Income Inequality?" Journal of the European Economic Association, 18(6): 2715-2754.
Staff Report Version

Heathcote, Jonathan, Kjetil Storesletten, Giovanni L. Violante (2020). "Optimal Progressivity with Age-Dependent Taxation." Journal of Public Economics, 189, article 104074.
Staff Report version

Heggeness, Misty L. (2020). "Estimating the Immediate Impact of the COVID-19 Shock on Parental Attachment to the Labor Market and the Double Bind of Mothers.” Review of Economics of the Household.
Institute Working Paper version

Heggeness, Misty L. (2020). “Improving Child Welfare in Middle Income Countries: The Unintended Consequence of a Pro-Homemaker Divorce Law and Wait Time to Divorce.” Journal of Development Economics, 143: article 102405.
Institute Working Paper version

Johnson, Janna E. and Morris Kleiner (2020). "Is Occupational Licensing a Barrier to Interstate Migration?" American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 12(3): 347-373.
Staff Report version

Kehoe, Patrick J., Pierlauro Lopez, Virgiliu Midrigan, Elena Pastorino (2020). "On the Importance of Household Versus Firm Credit Frictions in the Great Recession." Review of Economic Dynamics, 37(S1): S34-S67.

Kleiner, Morris M. and Edward J. Timmons (2020). "Occupational Licensing: Improving Access to Regulatory Information." Journal of Labor Research, 41: 333-337.

Krusell, Per, Toshihiko Mukoyama, Richard Rogerson, Ayşegül Şahin (2020). "Gross Worker Flows and Fluctuations in the Aggregate Labor Market." Review of Economic Dynamics,37(S1): S205-S226.

Kuhn, Moritz, Moritz Schularick, and Ulrike I. Steins (2020). "Income and Wealth Inequality in America, 1949–2016." Journal of Political Economy, 128(9): 3469-3519.
Institute Working Paper version

Lagakos, David, Samuel Marshall, Ahmed Mushfiq Moboarkak, Corey Vernot, Michael E. Waugh (2020). "Migration Costs and Observational Returns to Migration in the Developing World." Journal of Monetary Economics, 113: 138-154

Lagos, Ricardo and Shengxing Zhang (2020). “Turnover Liquidity and the Transmission of Monetary Policy.” American Economic Review, 110(6): 1635-1672.
Working Paper version

Lise, Jeremy and Fabien Postel-Vinay (2020). "Multidimensional Skills, Sorting, and Human Capital Accumulation." American Economic Review 110(8): 2328-2376.

McGrattan, Ellen R. (2020). "Intangible Capital and Measured Productivity." Review of Economic Dynamics, 37(S1): S147-166.
Staff Report version

McGrattan, Ellen R. and Andrea Waddle (2020). “The Impact of Brexit on Foreign Investment and Production.” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics,12(1): 76-103.
Staff Report version

Munnich, Elizabeth and Abigail Wozniak (2020). “What Explains the Rising Share of US Men in Registered Nursing?” ILR Review, 73(1): 91-123.

Schoellman, Todd (2020). "Comment on: "Migration Costs and Observational Returns to Migration in the Developing World" by David Lagakos, Samuel Marshall, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, Corey Vernot, Michael E. Waugh." Journal of Monetary Economics, 113: 155-157.

Stevens, Luminita (2020). “Coarse Pricing Policies.” The Review of Economic Studies, 87(1): 420–453.
Staff Report version

Swaziek, Zachary and Abigail Wozniak (2020). "Disparities Old and New in US Mental Health during the COVID-19 Pandemic." Fiscal Studies, 41(3): 709-732.

Wang, Liang, Randall Wright, and Lucy Qian Liu (2020). “Sticky Prices and Costly Credit.” International Economic Review, 61(1): 37-70.

Wright, Randall, Sylvia Xiaolin Xiao, Yu Zhu (2020). "Frictional Capital Reallocation with Ex Post Heterogeneity." Review of Economic Dynamics, 37(S1): S227-S253.

2019

Aguiar, Mark and Manuel Amador (2019). "A Contraction for Sovereign Debt Models." Journal of Economic Theory, 183: 842-875.

Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, Hugo Hopenhayn, Iván Werning (2019). "Take the Short Route: Equilibrium Default and Debt Maturity." Econometrica, 87(2): 423-462.

Arellano, Cristina, Yan Bai, and Patrick Kehoe (2019). “Financial Frictions and Fluctuations in Volatility.” Journal of Political Economy, 127(5): 2049-2103.
Staff Report version

Atkeson, Andrew, and Ariel Burstein (2019). “Aggregate Implications of Innovation Policy.” Journal of Political Economy, 127(6): 2625-2683.
Staff Report version

Atkeson, Andrew G., Ariel T. Burstein, and Manolis Chatzikonstantinou (2019). "Transitional Dynamics in Aggregate Models of Innovative Investment." Annual Review of Economics, 11: 273-301.
Staff Report version

Atkeson, Andrew G., Adrien d’Avernas, Andrea L. Eisfeldt, Pierre-Olivier Weill (2019). "Government Guarantees and the Valuation of American Banks." NBER Macroeconomics Annual, vol. 33, ed. M. Eichenbaum and J. A. Parker, 81-145. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Staff Report version

Bassetto, Marco (2019). “Forward Guidance: Communication, Commitment, or Both?.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 108: 69-86.

Bassetto, Marco and Carlo Galli (2019). “Is Inflation Default? The Role of Information in Debt Crises.” American Economic Review, 109(10): 3556-84.

Bengui, Julien, Javier Bianchi, Louphou Coulibaly (2019). “Financial Safety Nets.” International Economic Review, 60(1): 105-132.
Staff Report version

Benjamin, David and Mark L. J. Wright (2019). “Deconstructing Delays in Sovereign Debt Restructuring.” Oxford Economic Papers, 71(2): 382-404.
Working Paper version

Bianchi, Javier, Julien Bengui, and Louphou Coulibaly (2019). “Financial Safety Nets.” International Economic Review, 60(1): 105-132.
Staff Report version

Bick, Alexander, Bettina Brüggemann, and Nicola Fuchs‐Schündeln (2019). “Hours Worked in Europe and the United States: New Data, New Answers.” Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 121(4): 1381–1416.

Borella, Margherita, Mariacristina De Nardi, and Fang Yang (2019). “The Lost Ones: The Opportunities and Outcomes of White, Non-college-educated Americans Born in the 1960s.” NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 34: 67-115 ed. M. Eichenbaum, E. Hurst, and J. A. Parker. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Institute Working Paper version

Bryson, Alex, and Morris M. Kleiner (2019). “Re-Examining Advances in Occupational Licensing Research: Issues and Policy Implications.” British Journal of Industrial Relations, 57(4): 721–731.

Cavallo, Michele, Marco Del Negro, W. Scott Frame, Jamie Grasing, Benjamin A. Malin, and Carlo Rosa (2019). "Fiscal Implications of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Normalization." International Journal of Central Banking, 15(5): 255-306.
Working Paper version

Chodorow-Reich, Gabriel, John Coglianese, Loukas Karabarbounis (2019). “The Macro Effects of Unemployment Benefit Extensions: A Measurement Error Approach.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 134(1): 227-279.
Working Paper version

David, Joel M. and Venky Venkateswaran (2019). “The Sources of Capital Misallocation.” American Economic Review, 109(7): 2531-2567.

Eggertsson, Gauti B., Neil R. Mehrotra, and Jacob A. Robbins (2019). “A Model of Secular Stagnation: Theory and Quantitative Evaluation.” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 11(1): 1-48.
Working Paper version

Garcia-Macia, Daniel, Chang-Tai Hsieh, Peter J. Klenow (2019). "How Destructive is Innovation?" Econometrica, 87(5): 1507-1541.

Herkenhoff, Kyle F. and Lee E. Ohanian (2019). “The Impact of Foreclosure Delay on U.S. Employment.” Review of Economic Dynamics, 31: 63-83.

Hsieh, Chang-Tai, Erik Hurst, Charles I. Jones, Peter J. Klenow (2019). "The Allocation of Talent and U.S. Economic Growth." Econometrica, 87(5): 1439-1474.

Karabarbounis, Loukas and Brent Neiman (2019). “Accounting for Factorless Income.” NBER Macroeconomics Annual, vol. 33, ed. M. Eichenbaum and J. A. Parker, 167-228. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Working Paper version

Kehoe, Patrick J., Virgiliu Midrigan, and Elena Pastorino (2019). “Debt Constraints and Employment.” Journal of Political Economy, 127(4): 1926-1991.
Staff Report version

Koijen, Ralph S. J., and Motohiro Yogo (2019). “A Demand System Approach to Asset Pricing.” Journal of Political Economy, 127(4): 1475-1515.
Staff Report version

Kozlowski, Julian, Laura Veldkamp, and Venky Venkateswaran (2019). “The Tail that Keeps the Riskless Rate Low.” NBER Macroeconomics Annual, vol. 33, ed. M. Eichenbaum and J. A. Parker, 253-283. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Lester, Benjamin, Ali Shourideh, Venky Venkateswaran, and Ariel Zetlin-Jones (2019). “Screening and Adverse Selection in Frictional Markets.” Journal of Political Economy, 127(1): 338-377.

Lise, Jeremy and Ken Yamada (2019). “Household Sharing and Commitment: Evidence form Panel Data on Individual Expenditures and Time Use.” Review of Economic Studies, 86(5): 2184-2219.

Song, Jae, David J. Price, Fatih Guvenen, Nicholas Bloom, Till von Wachter (2019). “Firming Up Inequality.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 134(1): 1-50.
Working Paper version

Wright, Mark L. J., Lee E. Ohanian, and Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria (2019). “Bad Investments and Missed Opportunities? Postwar Capital Flows to Asia and Latin America.” American Economic Review, 108(12): 3541-3582.
Staff Report version

2018

Arellano, Cristina, Yan Bai, and Gabriel Mihalache (2018). “Default Risk, Sectoral Reallocation, and Persistent Recessions.” Journal of International Economics, 112: 182–199.
Staff Report version

Ayres, Joao, Gaston Navarro, Juan Pablo Nicolini, and Pedro Teles (2018). “Sovereign Default: The Role of Expectations.” Journal of Economic Theory, 175: 803–812.
Working Paper version

Bianchi, Javier, Juan Carlos Hatchondo, and Leonardo Martinez (2018). “International Reserves and Rollover Risk.” American Economic Review, 108(9): 2629–2670.
Working Paper version

Bianchi, Javier, and Enrique G. Mendoza (2018). “Optimal Time-Consistent Macroprudential Policy.” Journal of Political Economy, 126(2): 588–634.

Bils, Mark, Peter J. Klenow, and Benjamin A. Malin (2018). “Resurrecting the Role of the Product Market Wedge in Recessions.” American Economic Review, 108(4–5): 1118–1146.
Staff Report version

Bloom, Nicholas, Fatih Guvenen, Benjamin S. Smith, Jae Song, and Till von Wachter (2018). “The Disappearing Large-Firm Wage Premium.” AEA: Papers and Proceedings, 108: 317–322.

Chari, V. V. (2018). “Comment on ‘Credit Market Freezes’.” NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017, vol. 32, ed. M. Eichenbaum and J. A. Parker, 527–536. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Christiano, Lawrence J. 2018. “Comment on ‘Michelson-Morley, Fisher, and Occam: The Radical Implications of Stable Quiet Inflation at the Zero Bound’.” NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017, vol. 32, ed. M. Eichenbaum and J. A. Parker, 227–245. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Cociuba, Simona E., Edward C. Prescott, and Alexander Ueberfeldt (2018). “US Hours at Work.” Economics Letters, 169: 87–90.

Conesa, Juan Carlos, and Timothy J. Kehoe (2018). “An Introduction to the Macroeconomics of Aging.” Journal of the Economics of Ageing, 11: 1–5.

Fitzgerald, Doireann, and Stefanie Haller (2018). “Exporters and Shocks.” Journal of International Economics, 113: 154–171.
Staff Report version

Gavazza, Alessandro, Simon Mongey, and Giovanni L. Violante (2018). “Aggregate Recruiting Intensity.” American Economic Review, 108(8): 2088–2127.
Staff Report version

Gerardi, Kristopher, Kyle F. Herkenhoff, Lee E. Ohanian, and Paul S. Willen. 2018. “Can’t Pay or Won’t Pay? Unemployment, Negative Equity, and Strategic Default.” Review of Financial Studies, 31(3): 1098–1131.

Goolsbee, Austan D., and Peter J. Klenow (2018). "Internet Rising, Prices Falling: Measuring Inflation in a World of E-Commerce." AEA: Papers and Proceedings, 108: 488–492.

Heathcote, Jonathan, and Fabrizio Perri (2018). “Wealth and Volatility.” Review of Economic Studies, 85(4): 2173–2213.
Staff Report version

Hendricks, Lutz, and Todd Schoellman (2018). “Human Capital Development Accounting: New Evidence from Wage Gains at Migration.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 133(2): 665–700.
Institute Working Paper version

Herkenhoff, Kyle F., Lee E. Ohanian, and Edward C. Prescott (2018). “Tarnishing the Golden and Empire States: Land-Use Restrictions and the U.S. Economic Slowdown.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 93: 89–109.

Herrendorf, Berthold, and Todd Schoellman (2018). “Wages, Human Capital, and Barriers to Structural Transformation.” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 10(2): 1–23.

Hevia, Constantino, and Juan Pablo Nicolini (2018). “Monitoring Money for Price Stability.” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 89: 50–63.
Working Paper Version

Jarass, Lorenz J., Anthony E. Tokman, and Mark L. J. Wright (2018). “The Effects of U.S. Tax Reform: Comparing Taxes and Social Contributions in the U.S. and Germany.” Tax Notes International, 89(5): 433–447.

Jarass, Lorenz J., Anthony E. Tokman, and Mark L. J. Wright (2018). “Steuern und Sozialabgaben in den USA und in Deutschland.” Betriebsberater, Heft 48/2017: 2839–2846.

Jarass, Lorenz J., Anthony E. Tokman, and Mark L. J. Wright (2018). “Steuern und Sozialabgaben in den USA und in Deutschland: Update nach der US-Steuerreform 2018.” Betriebsberater, Heft 8/2018: 412–418.

Jarass, Lorenz J., Anthony E. Tokman, and L. J. Mark Wright (2018). “USA-Steuerreform 2018: Steuern und Sozialabgaben im Vergleich mit Deutschland.” Zeitschrift für Internationales Steuerrecht, Heft 4/2018: 143–155.

Kehoe, Patrick J., Virgiliu Midrigan, and Elena Pastorino (2018). “Evolution of Modern Business Cycle Models: Accounting for the Great Recession.” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 32(3): 141–166.
Staff Report version

Kehoe, Timothy J., Kim J. Ruhl, and Joseph B. Steinberg (2018). “Global Imbalances and Structural Change in the United States.” Journal of Political Economy, 126(2): 761–796.
Staff Report version

Lagakos, David, Benjamin Moll, Tommaso Porzio, Nancy Qian, and Todd Schoellman (2018). “Life-Cycle Human Capital Accumulation across Countries: Lessons from US Immigrants.” Journal of Human Capital, 12(2): 305–342.

Lagakos, David, Benjamin Moll, Tommaso Porzio, Nancy Qian, and Todd Schoellman (2018). “Life Cycle Wage Growth across Countries." Journal of Political Economy, 126(2): 797–849.

McGrattan, Ellen R., and Edward C. Prescott (2018). “An Aggregate Model for Policy Analysis with Demographic Change.” Journal of the Economics of Ageing, 11: 52–61.
Staff Report version

Michalopoulos, Stelios, and Elias Papaioannou (2018). “Spatial Patterns of Development: A Meso Approach.” Annual Review of Economics, 10: 383–410.
Institute Working Paper version

Ohanian, Lee E., Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria, and Mark L. J. Wright (2018). “Bad Investments and Missed Opportunities? Postwar Capital Flows to Asia and Latin America.” American Economic Review, 108(12): 3541–3582.
Staff Report version

Perri, Fabrizio, and Vincenzo Quadrini (2018). “International Recessions.” American Economic Review, 108(4–5): 935–984.
Staff Report 463

Rocheteau, Guillaume, Randall Wright, and Cathy Zhang (2018). “Corporate Finance and Monetary Policy.” American Economic Review, 108(4–5): 1147–1186.

Wright, Randall, Sylvia Xiaolin Xiao, and Yu Zhu. 2018. “Frictional Capital Reallocation I: Ex Ante Heterogeneity.” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 89: 100–116.

2017

Arellano, Cristina, and Yan Bai (2017). "Fiscal Austerity during Debt Crises." Economic Theory, 64(4): 657-673.
Staff Report version

Arellano, Cristina, Timothy J. Kehoe, and Herakles Polemarchakis (2017). "Introduction to the Special Issue on Models of Debt and Debt Crises." Economic Theory, 64(4): 605-610.

Atkeson, Andrew G., Andrea L. Eisfeldt, and Pierre-Olivier Weill (2017). "Measuring the Financial Soundness of U.S. Firms, 1926-2012." Research In Economics, 71(3): 613-635.
Staff Report version

Bhandari, Anmol, David Evans, Mikhail Golosov, Thomas J. Sargent (2017). "Public Debt in Economies with Heterogeneous Agents." Journal of Monetary Economics, 91: 39-51.

Bhandari, Anmol, David Evans, Mikhail Golosov, Thomas J. Sargent (2017). "Fiscal Policy and Debt Management with Incomplete Markets." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 132(2): 617-663.

Chari, V. V., Alessandro Dovis and Patrick J. Kehoe (2017). "A Journey Down the Slippery Slope to the European Crisis: A Theorist's Guide." Rules for International Monetary Stability: Past, Present and Future, Michael D. Bordo and John B. Taylor, Eds. Chapter 3: 125-147.

Chen, Peter, Loukas Karabarbounis, and Brent Neiman (2017). "The Global Rise of Corporate Saving." Journal of Monetary Economics, 89: 1-19.
Working Paper version

Conesa, Juan Carlos and Timothy J. Kehoe (2017). "Productivity, Taxes, and Hours Worked in Spain: 1970-2015." SERIEs: July 2017, 1-23.
Staff Report version

Conesa, Juan Carlos and Timothy J. Kehoe (2017). "Gambling for Redemption and Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises." Economic Theory, 64(4): 707-740.
Staff Report version

Fitzgerald, Doireann (2017). "Comment on: "After the tide: Commodity currencies and global trade" by Robert Ready, Nikolai Roussanov and Colin Ward." Journal of Monetary Economics, 85: 87-89.

Gittleman, Maury, Mark A. Klee, and Morris M. Kleiner (2017). “Analyzing the Labor Market Outcomes of Occupational Licensing.” Industrial Relations, 57(1): 51–100.
Staff Report version

Gopinath, Gita, Loukas Karabarbounis, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Carolina Villegas-Sanchez (2017). "Capital Allocation and Productivity in South Europe." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 132(4): 1915-1967.
Working Paper version

Guvenen, Fatih, Fatih Karahan, Serdar Ozkan, Jae Song (2017). "Heterogeneous Scarring Effects of Full-Year Nonemployment." American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 107(5): 369-373.

Guvenen, Fatih, Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, Jae Song, Motohiro Yogo (2017). "Worker Betas: Five Facts about Systematic Earnings Risk." American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 107(5): 398-403.
Staff Report version

Heathcote, Jonathan, Kjetil Storesletten and Giovanni L. Violante (2017). "Optimal Tax Progressivity: An Analytical Framework." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 132(4): 1693-1754.
Staff Report version

Heathcote, Jonathan, Kjetil Storesletten and Giovanni L. Violante (2017). "The Macroeconomics of the Quiet Revolution: Understanding the implications of the rise in women's participation for economic growth and inequality." Research in Economics, 71(3): 521-539.

Kehoe, Patrick J. and Elena Pastorino (2017). "Fiscal Unions Redux." Economic Theory, 64(4): 741-776.
Staff Report version

Kleiner, Morris, Wei Chi and Xiaoye Qian (2017). "Do Occupational Regulations Increase Earnings? Evidence from China." Industrial Relations, 56(2): 351-381.

Malin, Benjamin, Eric Anderson, Emi Nakamura, Duncan Simester, and Jon Steinsson (2017). "Informational Rigidities and the Stickiness of Temporary Sales." Journal of Monetary Economics, 90: 64-83.
Staff Report version

Perri, Fabrizio (2017). "Comment on "Capital controls and monetary policy autonomy in a small open economy" by J. Scott Davis and Ignasio Presno." Journal of Monetary Economics, 85: 131-135.

Pitchford, Rohan and Mark L. J. Wright (2017). "Settlement Games with Rank-Order Payoffs and Applications to Sovereign Debt Restructuring." Economic Theory, 64(4): 847-876.

Prescott, Edward C. and Ellen McGrattan (2017). "On Financing Retirement with an Aging Population." Quantitative Economics, 8(1): 75-115.
Staff Report version

Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam and Greg Kaplan (2017). "Understanding the Long-Run Decline in Interstate Migration." International Economic Review, 58(1): 57-94.
Working Paper version

Wright, Randall, Jonathan Chiu and Cesaire Meh (2017). "Innovation and Growth with Financial, and Other, Frictions." International Economic Review, 58(1): 95-125.
Working Paper version

Wright, Randall, Ricardo Lagos, Guillaume Rocheteau (2017). "Liquidity: A New Monetarist Perspective." Journal of Economic Literature, 55(2): 371-440.

2016

Adam, Klaus, Albert Marcet, and Juan Pablo Nicolini (2016). "Stock Market Volatility and Learning." Journal of Finance, 71(1): 33-82.
Working Paper version

Aguiar, Mark, and Manuel Amador (2016). "Fiscal Policy in Debt Constrained Economies." Journal of Economic Theory, 161: 37-75.
Staff Report version

Amador, Manuel, Javier Bianchi, Luigi Bocola, and Fabrizio Perri (2016). "Reverse Speculative Attacks." Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 72: 125-137.
Staff Report version

Arellano, Cristina, Andrew Atkeson, and Mark Wright (2016). "External and Public Debt Crises." In NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015, vol. 30, ed. M. Eichenbaum and J. Parker, 191-244. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Staff Report version

Arellano, Cristina, Lilia Maliar, Serguei Maliar, and Viktor Tsyrennikov (2016). "Envelope Condition Method with an Application to Default Risk Models." Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 69: 436-459.

Aruoba, S. Boragan, Morris A. Davis, and Randall Wright (2016). "Homework in Monetary Economics: Inflation, Home Production, and the Production of Homes." Review of Economic Dynamics, 21: 105-124.

Asturias, Jose, Sewon Hur, Timothy J. Kehoe, and Kim J. Ruhl (2016). "The Interaction and Sequencing of Policy Reforms." Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 72: 45-66.
Staff Report version

Bianchi, Javier, Chenxin Liu, and Enrique G. Mendoza (2016). "Fundamentals News, Global Liquidity and Macroprudential Policy." Journal of International Economics, 99(S1): S2-S15.

Blandin, Adam, John H. Boyd, and Edward C. Prescott (2016). "Equilibrium with Mutual Organizations in Adverse Selection Economies." Economic Theory, 62(1): 3-13.
Working Paper version

Bocola, Luigi (2016). "The Pass-Through of Sovereign Risk." Journal of Political Economy, 124(4): 879-926.
Working Paper version

Brinca, Pedro, Patrick J. Kehoe, Ellen R. McGrattan (2016). "Accounting for Business Cycles." Handbook of Macroeconomics, 2(13): 1013-1063.
Staff Report version

Burdett, Kenneth, Mei Dong, Ling Sun, and Randall Wright (2016). "Marriage, Markets, and Money: A Coasian Theory of Household Formation." International Economic Review, 57(2): 337-368.

Camargo, Braz, and Elena Pastorino (2016). "Learning-by-Employing: The Value of Commitment Under Uncertainty." Journal of Labor Economics, 34(3): 581-620.
Staff Report version

Chari, V. V., and Patrick J. Kehoe (2016). "Bailouts, Time Inconsistency, and Optimal Regulation: A Macroeconomic View." American Economic Review, 106(9): 2458-2493.
Staff Report version

Chodorow-Reich, Gabriel and Loukas Karabarbounis (2016). "The Cyclicality of the Opportunity Cost of Employment." Journal of Political Economy, 124(6): 1563-1618.
Staff Report version

Gittleman, Maury, and Morris Kleiner (2016). "Wage Effects of Unionization and Occupational Licensing Coverage in the United States." ILR Review, 69(1): 142-172.

Gu, Chao, Fabrizio Mattesini, and Randall Wright (2016). "Money and Credit Redux."Econometrica, 84(1): 1-32.

Heathcote, Jonathan, and Fabrizio Perri (2016). "On the Desirability of Capital Controls." IMF Economic Review, 64(1): 75-102.
Staff Report version

Kehoe, Patrick, Virgiliu Midrigan, and Elena Pastorino (2016). "Debt Constraints and the Labor Wedge." American Economic Review, 106(5): 548-553.

Kehoe, Timothy J., Pau S. Pujolas, and Kim J. Ruhl (2016). "The Opportunity Costs of Entrepreneurs in International Trade." Economics Letters, 146: 1-3.
Staff Report version

Koijen, Ralph S. J., Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, and Motohiro Yogo (2016). "Health and Mortality Delta: Assessing the Welfare Cost of Household Insurance Choice." Journal of Finance, 71(2): 957-1010.
Staff Report version

Koijen, Ralph S. J., and Motohiro Yogo (2016). "Shadow Insurance." Econometrica, 84(3): 1265-1287.
Staff Report version

Kruger, Dirk, Kurt Mitman, and Fabrizio Perri (2016). "Macroeconomics and Household Heterogeneity." Handbook of Macroeconomics, 2(11): 843-921.
Staff Report version

Menzio, Guido, and Randall Wright (2016). "Introduction to the Special Issue in Honor of Dale Mortensen." Review of Economic Dynamics, 19: 1-3.

Prescott, Edward C. (2016). "Northern America's Production of Technology Capital is Transforming the World Economy." Business Economics, 51(3), 127-132.

Prescott, Edward C. (2016). "RBC Methodology and the Development of Aggregate Economic Theory." Handbook of Macroeconomics, 2(22): 1759-1787.
Staff Report version

Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam, and Y. Claire Yang (2016). "Modeling the Evolution of Age and Cohort Effects." In Dynamic Demographic Analysis: Key Contemporary Issues in Measuring and Modeling, vol. 39, ed. R. Schoen, 313-335. The Netherlands: Springer.
Staff Report version

Silveira, Rafael, and Randall Wright (2016). "Venture Capital: A Model of Search and Bargaining." Review of Economic Dynamics, 19: 232-246.

Trejos, Alberto, and Randall Wright (2016). "Search-Based Models of Money and Finance: An Integrated Approach." Journal of Economic Theory, 164: 10-31.
Working Paper version

2015

Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, Emmanuel Farhi, and Gita Gopinath (2015). "Coordination and Crisis in Monetary Unions." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 130(4): 1727-1779.
Staff Report version

Arellano, Cristina, Andrew Atkeson, and Mark L. J. Wright (2015). "External and Public Debt Crises." NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015, vol. 30, ed. M. Eichenbaum and J. Parker. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Staff Report version

Atkeson, Andrew, Christian Hellwig, and Guillermo Ordonez (2015). "Optimal Regulation in the Presence of Reputation Concerns." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 130(1): 415-464.
Staff Report version

Bai, Yan, and Jose-Victor Rios-Rull (2015). "Demand Shocks and Open Economy Puzzles." American Economic Review, 105(5): 644-649.

Bianchi, Javier (2015). "Discussion of 'Macroeconomic Volatility and External Imbalances' by Alessandra Fogli and Fabrizio Perri." Journal of Monetary Economics, 69: 16-19.

Christiano, Lawrence J., Martin S. Eichenbaum, and Mathias Trabandt (2015). "Understanding the Great Recession." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 7(1): 110-167.

Connolly, Michelle, and Kei-Mu Yi (2015). "How Much of South Korea's Growth Miracle Can Be Explained by Trade Policy?" American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 7(4): 188-221.

Dinkelman, Taryn, and Sam Schulhofer-Wohl (2015). "Migration, Congestion Externalities, and the Evaluation of Spatial Investments." Journal of Development Economics, 114: 189-202.
Staff Report version
Working Paper version

Fogli, Alessandra, and Fabrizio Perri (2015). "Macroeconomic Volatility and External Imbalances." Journal of Monetary Economics, 69: 1-15.
Staff Report version

Holmes, Thomas J., Ellen R. McGrattan, and Edward C. Prescott (2015). "Quid Pro Quo: Technology Capital Transfers for Market Access in China." Review of Economic Studies, 82(3): 1154-1193.
Staff Report version

Holmes, Thomas J., and Holger Sieg (2015). "Structural Estimation in Urban and Regional Economics." In Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, vol. 5A, ed. G. Duranton, V. Henderson, and W. Strange. Amsterdam: North-Holland.

Huo, Zhen, and Jose-Victor Rios-Rull (2015). "Tightening Financial Frictions on Households, Recessions, and Price Reallocations." Review of Economic Dynamics, 18(1): 118-139.

Kehoe, Patrick, and Virgiliu Midrigan (2015). "Prices Are Sticky After All." Journal of Monetary Economics, 75 (October): 35-53.
Staff Report version

Kehoe, Timothy J., Jack Rossbach, and Kim J. Ruhl (2015). "Using the New Products Margin to Predict the Industry-Level Impact of Trade Reform." Journal of International Economics, 96(2): 289-297.
Staff Report version

Koijen, Ralph S. J., and Motohiro Yogo (2015). "The Cost of Financial Frictions for Life Insurers." American Economic Review, 105(1): 445-475.
Staff Report version

Holmes, Thomas J., Ellen R. McGrattan, and Edward C. Prescott (2015). "Quid Pro Quo: Technology Capital Transfers for Market Access in China." Review of Economic Studies, 82(3): 1154-1193.
Staff Report version

Nicolini, Juan Pablo, and Robert E. Lucas Jr. (2015). "On the Stability of Money Demand." Journal of Monetary Economics, 73: 48-65.
Working Paper version

Pastorino, Elena (2015). "Job Matching Within and Across Firms." International Economic Review, 56(2): 647-671.
Staff Report version

Phelan, Christopher, and Marco Bassetto (2015). "Speculative Runs on Interest Rate Pegs." Journal of Monetary Economics, 73: 99-114.

Rios-Rull, Jose-Victor, and Vincenzo Quadrini (2015). "Inequality in Macroeconomics." In Handbook of Income Distribution, vol. 2B, ed. A. Atkinson and F. Bourguignon. Amsterdam: Elsevier.