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2023 Institute Research Conference

Showcasing frontier research to enhance economic opportunity and inclusive growth

October 5, 2023 | 9:00 a.m. – 5:00 p.m. CT
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Minneapolis, Minnesota

2023 Institute Research Conference
Blue chairs against a blue wall with one yellow chair highlighted

The Opportunity & Inclusive Growth Institute will host its 2023 research conference on October 5, 2023. This event will showcase the range of frontier-style research with which the Institute engages. Papers will discuss questions related to the Institute’s mission of supporting the Federal Reserve’s mandates through research into how to enhance economic opportunity and achieve inclusive growth.

The event’s keynote speaker will be Jed Kolko, Under Secretary of Commerce for Economic Affairs. Secretary Kolko coordinates economic analysis for the U.S. Department of Commerce and provides direction and oversight for the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Before joining the Commerce Department, Kolko served as chief economist at Indeed, a global jobs site, and Trulia, an online real estate firm.

The program and photos from last year’s conference can be found here. Last year’s event welcomed an in-person audience of more than 100 people and the event recording has reached more than 2,200 views.

The conference will be preceded by a dinner for presenters and discussants as well as the Institute’s advisory board members, economists, and leadership to engage in broad and deep conversation about research around opportunity and inclusive growth. The program committee for the conference is Robynn Cox, Niklas Engbom, Alessandra Fogli, Andrew Goodman-Bacon, John Bailey Jones, Amanda Michaud, Raven Molloy, and Simon Mongey.

Event Details

Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Minneapolis, Minnesota

This event will be in person with presenters, discussants, and a small audience. The event will also be livestreamed here, and a recording will be available after the event.

In-person attendance is by invitation, and invitees should use the link in their invitation email to register. If you would like to request an invitation to attend in person, please contact MplsInstitute@mpls.frb.org.

Event Agenda

Thursday, October 5

9:00 a.m. – 9:30 a.m. CT

Welcome

9:30 a.m. – 9:40 a.m. CT

Opening remarks

Abigail Wozniak, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

9:40 a.m. – 10:20 a.m. CT

Keynote and Q&A
“How economic research can improve policy implementation”

Speaker: Jed Kolko, Under Secretary of Commerce for Economic Affairs
Moderator: Neel Kashkari, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

10:20 a.m. – 11:10 a.m. CT

The Limited Impact of Free College Policies [Paper]

María Marta Ferreyra, World Bank; Carlos Garriga, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Juan David Martin-Ocampo, Banco de la República Colombia; Angelica Maria Sanchez-Diaz, Georgetown University

Presenter: Carlos Garriga, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Discussant: Douglas N. Harris, Tulane University

11:10 a.m. – 12:00 p.m. CT

Childhood Exposure to Violence and Nurturing Relationships: The Long-Run Effects on Black Men [Paper]

Dionissi Aliprantis, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland; Kristen Tauber, New York University

Presenter: Dionissi Aliprantis, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Discussant: Rucker Johnson, University of California, Berkeley

12:00 p.m. – 1:00 p.m. CT

Lunch

1:00 p.m. – 1:50 p.m. CT

Riding the Waves: Inequality and Adaptation to Extreme Temperatures in a Changing Climate

Stephie Fried, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Presenter: Stephie Fried, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Discussant: Nafisa Lohawala, Resources for the Future

1:50 p.m. – 2:40 p.m. CT

A Theory of Non-Coasean Labor Markets [Paper]

Julio Andrés Blanco, University of Michigan at Ann Arbor; Andrés Drenik, University of Texas at Austin; Christian Moser, Columbia Business School; Emilio Zaratiegui, Columbia University

Presenter: Christian Moser, Columbia Business School
Discussant: Laura Pilossoph, Duke University

2:40 p.m. – 3:00 p.m. CT

Break

3:00 p.m. – 3:50 p.m. CT

The Downward Spiral [Paper]

Jeremy Greenwood, University of Pennsylvania; Nezih Guner, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona; Karen A. Kopecky, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Presenter: Karen A. Kopecky, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Discussant: Ezra Golberstein, University of Minnesota School of Public Health

3:50 p.m. – 4:40 p.m. CT

Market Response to Racial Uprisings [Paper]

Bocar Ba, Duke University; Roman G. Rivera, University of California, Berkeley; Alexander Whitefield, Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania

Presenter: Bocar Ba, Duke University
Discussant: Peter Hull, Brown University

4:40 p.m. – 4:50 p.m. CT

Closing remarks

4:50 p.m. – 6:30 p.m. CT

Networking and social hour

Session moderators are Amanda Michaud, Illenin Kondo, and Andrew Goodman-Bacon, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.


Paper Summaries

Childhood Exposure to Violence and Nurturing Relationships: The Long-Run Effects on Black Men

Dionissi Aliprantis, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland; Kristen Tauber, New York University

Over a quarter of Black men in the United States witness a shooting as a child. Aliprantis and Tauber identify the causal impact of this exposure on long-term earnings of Black men by comparing Black children who witnessed a shooting with children with similar characteristics who did not. They find Black adults who were exposed to gun violence before the age of 12 had earnings 26 percent lower than their counterparts who had not witnessed violence. However, having nurturing relationships as a child is nearly as beneficial as preventing the exposure to violence. Utilizing their findings, the authors find that scalable childhood nurturing programs such as Boys & Girls Clubs have a positive impact that exceeds their costs. The paper highlights how childhood nurturing programs reduce the effects of childhood exposure to gun violence.


Market Response to Racial Uprisings

Bocar Ba, Duke University; Roman G. Rivera, University of California, Berkeley; Alexander Whitefield, Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania

Do investors anticipate the impact of racial uprisings on firms? Ba and co-authors find evidence that the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement affected publicly traded companies that provide equipment or training to police forces. The authors find that valuations of firms strongly connected with police forces increased by 7 percentage points relative to similar firms without police connections over a 21-day period after BLM protest movements. This net gain is the result of investors anticipating that police forces would require greater funding for reform efforts. The paper provides an interesting case study on how societal forces can shape financial sector outcomes.


Riding the Waves: Inequality and Adaptation to Extreme Temperatures in a Changing Climate

Stephie Fried, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Millions of Americans grappled with record-breaking triple-digit temperatures this past summer. How will the cost of climate change be distributed across society? Deriving results from a model, Fried finds that the adverse welfare effects of temperature rises will fall disproportionally on lower-income individuals. This effect is more pronounced in hotter regions, where poorer households will spend a greater share of their income to cool their home. The model captures how low-income households with little savings struggle to cope with temperature changes. Fried incorporates energy transfers such as the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) in her analysis, which could potentially ease the burden on households with little savings.


The Limited Impact of Free College Policies

María Marta Ferreyra, World Bank; Carlos Garriga, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Juan David Martin-Ocampo, Banco de la República Colombia; Angelica Maria Sanchez-Diaz, Georgetown University

Education has been shown to increase social and economic mobility for some graduates. However, the costs of higher education can server as a barrier to matriculation. Subsidized or fully funded college programs have been proposed in order to reduce this barrier. Ferreyra and co-authors assess the impact of these programs on both enrollment as well as on graduation rates. Fully funded and need-based programs did increase enrollments, but they did not lead to an increase in graduation rates. Only performance-based aid programs led to an increase in graduation rates. This paper provides a tool that incorporates both graduation and enrollment rates in its cost-benefit analysis of higher education aid programs.


The Downward Spiral

Jeremy Greenwood, University of Pennsylvania; Nezih Guner, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona; Karen A. Kopecky, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Since 2000, nearly 500,000 Americans have lost their lives due to opioid overdoses, and the number of deaths has spiked in the last five years with the introduction of synthetic opioids, such as fentanyl. The goal of Greenwood and co-authors is to understand the causes of this trend. The authors create a model that shows the increase in opioid use and subsequent overdose deaths were the result of a combination of decreasing prices, increasingly lethal opioids in the form of fentanyl, and misinformation about the dangers of addiction. The authors also find that the increase in the prescribed strength and length of time for opioid use were not significant drivers of overdoses. The paper has several findings relevant to policy making around opioid use. First, the paper highlights that widening access to overdose prevention drugs, such as Naloxone, can reduce fatalities. However, the authors caution that any policy that reduces overdoses also reduces the cost of opioid use, leading to an increase in the use of opioids.


A Theory of Non-Coasean Labor Markets

Julio Andrés Blanco, University of Michigan at Ann Arbor; Andrés Drenik, University of Texas at Austin; Christian Moser, Columbia Business School; Emilio Zaratiegui, Columbia University

Blanco and co-authors develop a theory of labor markets that incorporates realistic features, such as job market search frictions and wages, that do not quickly adjust to price changes. The theory provides novel dynamics surrounding inefficient job separations that happen when the worker and firm would have been better off had the separation not occurred. Using variables such as wage fluctuations that can be captured in real-world data, the authors derive the prevalence of inefficient job separations. This is then used to characterize how the labor market responds to price changes—in particular, how employment and wages respond. The theoretical results show inflation can decrease wages relative to a worker’s productivity. However, this depends on how quickly wages adjust to the new price level.

EARLY CAREER RESEARCHERS’ WORKSHOP

The early career researchers’ workshop will be held Friday, October 6, in person at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. This event is an opportunity to provide constructive feedback and networking opportunities to scholars up to 10 years post-Ph.D. Attendance will be by invitation only, and the event will not be recorded or posted later. We encourage you to visit participants’ webpages to engage with their scholarship.

Workshop Agenda

Friday, October 6

8:30 a.m. – 9:00 a.m. CT

Welcome and breakfast

Presenter: Alessandra Fogli, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

9:00 a.m. – 9:45 a.m. CT

The Effects of Gentrification on Household Finance and Mobility

Aditya Aladangady, Federal Reserve Board of Governors; Jacob Krimmel, Federal Reserve Board of Governors

Presenter: Jacob Krimmel, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Discussant: Lisa Barrow, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

9:45 a.m. – 10:30 a.m. CT

Endogenous Bargaining Power and Declining Labor Compensation Share

Juan C. Córdoba, Iowa State University; Anni T. Isojärvi, Federal Reserve Board of Governors; Haoran Li, Renmin University of China

Presenter: Anni Isojärvi, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Discussant: Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

10:30 a.m. – 10:45 a.m. CT

Break

10:45 a.m. – 11:30 a.m. CT

Public Education and Intergenerational Housing Wealth Effects

Michael Gilraine, New York University; James Graham, University of Sydney; Angela Zheng, McMaster University

Presenter: Angela Zheng, McMaster University
Discussant: Kyle Herkenhoff, University of Minnesota

11:30 a.m. – 12:15 p.m. CT

Lunch

12:15 p.m. – 1:00 p.m. CT

Central Bank Digital Currency: Financial Inclusion vs. Disintermediation

Jeremie Banet, University of California, Irvine; Lucie Lebeau, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Presenter: Lucie Lebeau, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Discussant: Burcu Duygan-Bump, Federal Reserve Board of Governors

1:00 p.m. – 1:45 p.m. CT

Some Like It Hot: Inclusive Monetary Policy Under Okun's Hypothesis

Felipe Alves, Bank of Canada; Giovanni L. Violante, Princeton University

Presenter: Felipe Alves, Bank of Canada
Discussant: Conor Walsh, Columbia Business School

1:45 p.m. – 2:00 p.m. CT

Break

2:00 p.m. – 2:45 p.m. CT

The Parenthood Gap: Firms and Earnings Inequality After Kids

Rebecca Jack, University of Nebraska–Lincoln, Lincoln; Daniel Tannenbaum, University of Nebraska–Lincoln; Brenden Timpe, University of Nebraska–Lincoln

Presenter: Brenden Timpe, University of Nebraska–Lincoln
Discussant: Niklas Engbom, New York University Stern School of Business

2:45 p.m. – 3:30 p.m. CT

Small group discussions

Session moderators are Mallika Thomas, Abigail Wozniak, Amanda Michaud, and Alex Albright, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.