Mark L. J. Wright Senior Vice President & Director of Research

Deconstructing Delays in Sovereign Debt Restructuring
2019 | Oxford Economic Papers, 71(2): 382-404 | With David Benjamin
Previously: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Working Paper 753

Bad Investments and Missed Opportunities? Postwar Capital Flows to Asia and Latin America
2018 | American Economic Review, 108(12): 3541-3582 | With Lee E. Ohanian and Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria
Previously: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Staff Report 563
Related: Mark Wright interview with the AEA.

Restructuring Venezuela's Debt: Lessons from the Past and Implications for the Future
2018 | Journal of Investing, 27(3): 74-79 | With Camilo Alvarez and Daniel A. Dias

USA-Steuerreform 2018: Steuern und Sozialabgaben im Vergleich mit Deutschland
2018 | Zeitschrift für Internationales Steuerrecht, 4: 143-155 | With Lorenz J. Jarass and Anthony E. Tokman

Steuern und Sozialabgaben in den USA und in Deutschland: Update nach der US-Steuerreform 2018
2018 | Betriebs-Berater, 8: 412-418 | With Lorenz J. Jarass and Anthony E. Tokman

The Effects of U.S. Tax Reform: Comparing Taxes and Social Contributions in the U.S. and Germany
2018 | Tax Notes International, 89(5): 433-447 | With Lorenz J. Jarass and Anthony E. Tokman

Steuern und Sozialabgaben in den USA und in Deutschland
2017 | Betriebs-Berater, 48: 2839-2846 | With Lorenz J. Jarass and Anthony E. Tokman

Settlement Games with Rank-Order Payoffs and Applications to Sovereign Debt Restructuring
2017 | Economic Theory, 64(4): 847-876 | With Rohan Pitchford

Under-insurance in Human Capital Models with Limited Enforcement
2017 | Review of Economic Dynamics, 25: 121-150 | With Tom Krebs and Moritz Kuhn
Code and Data Files (zip)

External and Public Debt Crises
2016 | NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015, 30: 191-244 | With Cristina Arellano and Andrew Atkeson
Previously: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Staff Report 515

Human Capital Risk, Contract Enforcement, and the Macroeconomy
2015 | American Economic Review, 105(11): 3223-3272 | With Tom Krebs and Moritz Kuhn
Previously: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Working Paper 2014-09

The Stock of External Sovereign Debt: Can We Take the Data at 'Face Value'?
2014 | Journal of International Economics, 94(1): 1-17 | With Daniel A. Dias and Christine Richmond
Previously: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Working Paper 2014-05

Interpreting the Pari Passu Clause in Sovereign Bond Contracts: It is All Hebrew (and Aramaic) to Me
2014 | Capital Markets Law Journal 9(3): 259-265
Previously: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Working Paper 2014-06

GDP-Indexed Bonds: A Tool to Reduce Macroeconomic Risk?
2014 | The Future of Sovereign Borrowing in Europe: SUERF Study 2013/5, Morten Balling, Ernest Gnan and Johannes Holler, Eds., Chapter 8: 101-118 | With Guido Sandleris

Comment on “Sovereign Debt Markets in Turbulent Times: Creditor Discrimination and Crowding-Out Effects” by Broner, Erce, Martin and Ventura
2014 | Journal of Monetary Economics, 61: 143-147

Strategic Behavior in Sovereign Debt Restructuring: Impact and Policy Responses
2014 | Life After Debt, Joseph E. Stiglitz and Daniel Heymann, Eds., Chapter 3: 179-190 | With Rohan Pitchford

The Costs of Financial Crises: Resource Misallocation, Productivity, and Welfare in the 2001 Argentine Crisis
2013 | The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 116(1): 87-127 | With Guido Sandleris

On the Contribution of Game Theory to the Study of Sovereign Debt and Default
2013 | Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 29(4): 649-667 | With Rohan Pitchford

Empirical Research on Sovereign Debt and Default
2013 | Annual Review of Economics, 5: 247-272 | With Michael Tomz
Previously: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Working Paper 2012-06

Sovereign Debt Restructuring: Problems and Prospects
2012 | Harvard Business Law Review, 2(1): 153-198

Holdouts in Sovereign Debt Restructuring: A Theory of Negotiation in a Weak Contractual Environment
2012 | Review of Economic Studies, 79(2): 812-837 | With Rohan Pitchford

The Pari Passu Clause in Sovereign Bond Contracts: Evolution or Intelligent Design?
2011 | Hofstra Law Review, 40(1): 103-114

Restructuring Sovereign Debts with Private Sector Creditors: Theory and Practice
2010 | Sovereign Debt and the Financial Crisis: Will Thie Time Be Different?, Carlos A. Primo Braga and Galli A. Vincelette, Eds., Chapter 12: 295-315

Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Performance: Lessons from the Golden Era of International Finance
2010 | American Economic Reivew, 100(2): 68-72 | With Lee E. Ohanian

Sovereign Theft: Theory and Evidence about Sovereign Default and Expropriation
2010 | The Natural Resources Trap: Private Investment without Public Commitment, William Hogan and Federico Sturzenegger, Eds., Chapter 3: 69-110 | With Michael Tomz
Replication dataset (zip)

Establishment Size Dynamics in the Aggregate Economy
2007 | American Economic Review, 97(5): 1639-1666 | With Esteban Rossi-Hansberg
Dataset (zip)

Do Countries Default in "Bad Times"?
2007 | Journal of the European Economic Association, 5(2-3): 352-360 | With Michael Tomz

Urban Structure and Growth
2007 | Review of Economic Studies, 74(2): 597-624 | With Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

Private Capital Flows, Capital Controls, and Default Risk
2006 | Journal of International Economics, 69(1): 120-149

On the Gains from International Financial Integration
2005 | Economics Letters, 87(3): 379-386

Coordinating Creditors
2005 | American Economic Review, 95(2): 388-392

New Empirical Results on Default: A Discussion of "A Gravity Model of Sovereign Lending: Trade, Default and Credit"
2004 | IMF Staff Papers, 51: 66-74

Solutions Manual for Recursive Methods in Economic Dynamics
2003 | Harvard University Press | With Claudio Irigoyen and Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

William T. Thornton on the Economics of Trade Unions: An Early Contribution to Efficient Bargaining Theory
2002 | International Journal of Applied Economics and Econometrics, 10(2): 218-254 | With Mark Donoghue

Internationalisation, Firm Conduct and Productivity
1994 | International Integration of the Australian Economy, eds. Philip Lowe and Jacqueline Dwyer: 51-106 | With Henry Ergas

Readers Write: Work and Workers, Robert Bly
November 23, 2021 | Star Tribune

In Minnesota, an Economics Research Revolution 50 Years Strong
August 10, 2019 | Star Tribune | With Art Rolnick

Private Market Must be a Central Part of Affordable-Housing Solution
October 17, 2018 | Star Tribune | With Ron J. Feldman

Striking a New Bargain: Better Jobs for More Americans
May 30, 2018 | MinnPost

Support of Native American Early Childhood Development
March 2018 | Healthy Children, Healthy Nations: Final Report, p. 18

New Effort will take Aim at Growth and Opportunity Gaps; Here's How
June 23, 2017 | Star Tribune | With Ron J. Feldman

The Direction of Capital Flows
2016 | Economic Synopses, No. 22 | With Lee E. Ohanian and Paula Restrepo-Echavarria

Debt Statistics a la Carte: Alternative Recipes for Measuring Government Indebtedness
2016 | Chicago Fed Letter, No. 362 | With Daniel A. Dias

How Much Debt Does the U.S. Government Owe?
2016 | Chicago Fed Letter, No. 353 | With Rebecca Friedman

Debt Crises in Europe and US states: Sovereign Spillovers on Private Borrowers
2016 | VoxEU.org | With Cristina Arellano and Andy Atkeson

Debt Statistics a la Carte: Alternative Recipes for Measuring Government Indebtedness
November 17, 2015 | IFDP Notes | With Daniel A. Dias

Alternative Measures of Government Indebtedness
2015 | VoxEU.org | With Daniel A. Dias
Republished as: "Is Greece More Indebted than Portugal or Ireland?", World Economic Forum, November 16, 2015.

Sovereign Debt Repayments: Evidence on Seniority
2015 | VoxEU.org | With Matthias Schlegl and Christoph Trebesch

Where Has All the Productivity Gone?
2013 | Chicago Fed Letter, No. 306 | With Jake Fabina

Interviewed: "Today's Inflation Jolt Covers Up a Long-Term Strain on Minnesotans' Wallets"
March 2, 2022 | The Star Tribune | By Burl Gilyard

Interviewed: "Study Finds Minneapolis and St. Paul Minimum Wage Increases Led to Loss of Restaurant Jobs"
November 11, 2021 | The Star Tribune | By Kavita Kumar

Interviewed: "Consumers are Still Seeing Higher Prices for Goods. Is it More than Just a Lingering Effect of the Pandemic?"
October 20, 2021 | MinnPost | By Greta Kaul

Interviewed: "Schafer: CEO Pay is Broken, but What About Low-Wage Pay?"
July 17, 2021 | The Star Tribune | By Lee Schafer

Interviewed: "Prices are Higher for All Kinds of Goods in Minnesota Lately. Is it a Pandemic Blip or Permanent?"
July 6, 2021 | MinnPost | By Greta Kaul

Interviewed: "Overheated: Answers to the Burning Questions about the Volatile Housing Market"
June/July, 2021 | Twin Cities Business | By Burl Gilyard

Video interview: "MNI Webcast with Mark L. J. Wright"
May 24, 2021 | MNI Market News Webcast | By Tim Cooper

Interviewed: "The Difference Between Relief and Stimulus is All the Difference"
February 6, 2021 | The Star Tribune | By Lee Schafer

Interviewed: "MNI Interview: Fed Could Act if Curve Steepens — Wright"
October 22, 2020 | MNI Market News

Interviewed: "MN Unemployment Rate Rose to 9.9 Percent in May — the Highest on Record"
June 18, 2020 | Pioneer Press | By Dane Mizutani

Interviewed: "Local Expert Says Minnesota Economy is in ‘Uncharted Territory’ Due to Coronavirus"
April 20, 2020 | Pioneer Press | By Dane Mizutani

Interviewed: "How High Will the Unemployment Rate Get Due to Coronavirus?"
April 19, 2020 | Pioneer Press | By Dane Mizutani

Interviewed: "Fed Staff Rip Up Script as Officials Go Dark Ahead of Meeting"
April 17, 2020 | Bloomberg News | By Matthew Boesler, Catarina Saraiva, and Steve Matthews

Interviewed: "Podcast with Mark Wright and Kate Kelly"
April 15, 2020 | Economic Club of Minnesota

Interviewed: "Job Losses in Manufacturing Show Breadth of Downturn in Minnesota"
April 7, 2020 | The Star Tribune | By Adam Belz

Interviewed: "Minneapolis Fed Says Unemployment Numbers Could Rival Great Depression"
April 2, 2020 | KARE 11 | By Chris Hrapsky

Interviewed: "Can the Fed Fight Inequality? Kashkari Says Yes, Hires an Ally"
November 24, 2019 | Bloomberg | By Matthew Boesler

Presenter: "Deception, Self Deception, and Sovereign Debt Statistics"
November 7, 2019 | IMF Annual Research Conference: Session 1 - Measuring Debt
Mark's portion begins at minute 57.

Interviewed: "Signs Point to National Recession. What Might That Mean for Minnesota?"
August 27, 2019 | MinnPost | By Greta Kaul

Interviewed: "Is an Economic Storm Brewing?"
July 26, 2019 | Finance & Commerce | By Dan Emerson

Interviewed: "Increase Supply of Housing, Incentivize Private Sector to Build More, Recognize Trade-Offs and Shared Sacrifice"
July 12, 2019 | CivicCaucus.org: Minnesota Affordable Housing Policy Interview

Interviewed: "Twin Cities Apartment Boom Leaves People Behind"
May 7, 2019 | Fox 9 News

Interviewed: "Game of Thrones' Iron Bank, Explained"
April 12, 2019 | Marketplace | By Janet Nguyen

Interviewed: "Game of Thrones: Why Sansa Could Win it All"
April 9, 2019 | AP News | By Christopher Rugaber, Josh Boak, Paul Wiseman

Interviewed: "With Minnesota Unemployment so Low, Why aren't Wages Going up More?"
February 5, 2019 | MinnPost | By Greta Kaul

Interviewed: "When Nations Don't Pay Their Debts"
Third Quarter 2018 | Econ Focus | By Tim Sablik

Interviewed: "Domestic Policies with International Consequences"
December 14, 2018 | AEA Research Highlights | By Tyler Smith

Interviewed: "The '80s are Thriving at Trump's Fed"
August 7, 2018 | Bloomberg Markets Magazine | By Matthew Boesler

Interviewed: "Ominous national debt projections not seen as big business concern — yet"
July 7, 2018 | The Star Tribune | By Jim Spencer

Interviewed: "Market Forces, Regulation Have Worked Against More Affordable Housing"
June 30, 2018 | The Star Tribune | By Lee Schafer

Interviewed: "Rising Oil Prices Pump Up Prospects for Permian Basin Towns"
June 26, 2018 | The Wall Street Journal | By Rebecca Elliott and Harriet Torry

Interviewed: "Fed Reserve Advisory Board Seeks "Alternative" Solutions to Racial Economic Disparities"
June 14, 2018 | Minneosta Spokesman-Recorder | By Charles Hallman

Presenter: "Lessons from Sovereign Debt: State and Local Financing"
April 26, 2018 | Heller-Hurwicz Economics Institute's Spring Roundtable | With Manuel Amador and V. V. Chari
Summary of event
Video of event

Interviewed: "Fed Sees GDP Hit from Trade War Outweighing Fleeting Inflation"
April 11, 2018 | Bloomberg | By Matthew Boesler

Town Hall Presentation: "An Economic Outlook with Mark Wright"
March 28, 2018 | YouTube | Presentation Slides

Interview with Mark L.J. Wright
March 26, 2018 | The Region, 2017 Annual Report issue

Interviewed: "Minneapolis Fed to Study Effects of City's New Minimum Wage Rule"
March 6, 2018 | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Updates | By Alyssa Augustine

Recorded panel presentation: "National Service Recovery Forum Panel Discussion: The Opioid Crisis and the Impact of Recovery"
February 13, 2018 | YouTube

Interviewed: "Intense Research and Debate Shape Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari's Dovish Take on Rate Hikes"
December 23, 2017 | Star Tribune | By Evan Ramstad

Research cited: Steuersätze sinken stärker als Belastung
December 20, 2017 | Handelsblatt | By Norbert Haering

Podcast guest: "Wealth of Westeros: The Economy of 'Game of Thrones', episode 8: 'Is Honesty the Best Economic Policy'"
August 29, 2017 | Associated Press | By Christopher S. Rugaber, Paul Wiseman, and Josh Boak

Research cited: "Some Historical Context: What if Venezuela Declared Default?"
February 13, 2016 | Post-Western World | By Oliver Stuenkel

Recorded presentation: Insurance in Human Capital Models with Limited Enforcement
December 16, 2015 | Human Capital and Inequality Conference

Video interview: "A Brief Interview with Mark Wright"
April 2015 | 30th Annual Conference on Macroeconomics

Research cited: "Public Finances: A World of Debt"
January 6, 2015 | Financial Times | By Robin Wigglesworth

Research cited: "What Happened to the Internet Productivity Miracle?"
April 1, 2013 | The New Yorker | By John Cassidy

Research cited: "Why is Productivity Slowing Down?"
January 28, 2013 | The Wall Street Journal: Real Time Economics | By Timothy Aeppel

Research cited: "The Productivity Slowdown, Part 2"
December 18, 2012 | The Seattle Times | By Jon Talton

Research cited: "The Productivity Slowdown, Part 1"
December 17, 2012 | The Seattle Times | By Jon Talton

Research cited: "What's in a Government Debt Number?"
November 1, 2011 | Financial Times: Alphaville | By Lisa Pollack

Research cited: "This is Not the End of the Road for Dubai".
November 30, 2009 | Financial Times | By Sultan Sooud Al Qassemi

Research cited: "Sets and the City"
September 1, 2004 | The Region | By Douglas Clement

Research cited: "It Could be We are Trading More but Enjoying it Less"
September 17, 1994 | Sydney Morning Herald | By Ross Gittins