Juan Pablo Nicolini Principal Research Economist and Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
Connect with Juan Pablo
Juan Pablo Nicolini is a principal research economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Prior to joining the Fed in 2009, Juan Pablo taught at the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México, the Universitat Pompeu Fabra in Barcelona, and the Universidad Torcuato Di Tella in Buenos Aires, where he holds a part-time position. In addition, he served as chairman of the Economics Department (1994–99) and president (2001–9) of Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. In 2006–7, he was Tinker Visiting Professor in the Economics Department and the Center for Latin-American Studies at the University of Chicago. He has also been a visiting researcher at the Banco de Portugal and in the Monetary Stance Division of the European Central Bank.
Juan studied economics at the Universidad Nacional de Tucumán in Argentina and earned M.A. and Ph.D. degrees in economics from the University of Chicago. The focus of his research centers on monetary theory and policy and on bounded rationality in macroeconomics. Juan’s work has appeared in several journals, among them the Journal of Political Economy, American Economic Review, Journal of Monetary Economics, Review of Economic Dynamics, and Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.
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Quarterly Review 4432 | November 2024 (Vol. 44 No. 3)Tobias Martinez Gonzalez and Juan Pablo Nicolini
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Quarterly Review 4422 | July 2024 (Vol. 44 No. 2)Han Gao and Juan Pablo NicoliniThis article was previously published as [Staff Report 650](https://doi.org/10.21034/sr.650).
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Staff Report 659 (June 2024)Joao Ayres, Gaston Navarro, Juan Pablo Nicolini, and Pedro TelesAn earlier version of this Staff Report circulated as [Working Paper 757](https://doi.org/10.21034/wp.757).
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Staff Report 658 (June 2024)Pablo Neumeyer and Juan Pablo NicoliniAn earlier version of this Staff Report circulated as [Working Paper 790](https://doi.org/10.21034/wp.790).
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Working Paper 806 (June 2024)Victor Almeida, Carlos Esquivel, Timothy J. Kehoe, and Juan Pablo Nicolini
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Staff Report 650 (August 2023)Han Gao and Juan Pablo NicoliniPublished in: _Quarterly Review_ (Vol. 44, No. 2), https://doi.org/10.21034/qr.4422.
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Working Paper 782 (Revised April 2022)Joao Ayres, Constantino Hevia, and Juan Pablo NicoliniThis paper previously circulated with the title _Online Appendix for: Real Exchange Rates and Primary Commodity Prices: Mussa Meets Backus-Smith_.
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Working Paper 781 (Revised April 2022)Joao Ayres, Constantino Hevia, and Juan Pablo Nicolini[Online Appendix](https://doi.org/10.21034/wp.782 "Online Appendix") This paper previously circulated with the title _Real Exchange Rates and Primary Commodity Prices: Mussa Meets Backus-Smith_.
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Staff Report 637 (March 2022)V. V. Chari, Juan Pablo Nicolini, and Pedro TelesRelated: [Staff Report 581: Optimal Cooperative Taxation in the Global Economy](https://doi.org/10.21034/sr.581)
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Staff Report 581 (Revised March 2022)V. V. Chari, Juan Pablo Nicolini, and Pedro Teles[Staff Report 637: Appendix](https://doi.org/10.21034/sr.637) Published in: _Journal of Political Economy_ (Vol. 131, Iss. 1, January 2023, pp. 95-130), https://doi.org/10.1086/720889.
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Working Paper 790 (January 2022)Pablo Neumeyer and Juan Pablo NicoliniAn updated version of this paper was published as [Staff Report 658](https://doi.org/10.21034/sr.658).
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Staff Report 633 (December 2021)Han Gao, Mariano Kulish, and Juan Pablo NicoliniRelated: [Staff Report 634: Online Appendix](https://doi.org/10.21034/sr.634). This paper is a substantially revised version of [Working Paper 774](https://doi.org/10.21034/wp.774). Published in: _Journal of International Economics_ (Vol. 154, article 104058, March 2025), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104058.
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Staff Report 634 (December 2021)Han Gao, Mariano Kulish, and Juan Pablo Nicolini
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Working Paper 783 (September 2021)Luca Benati and Juan Pablo NicoliniOnline Appendix: Working Paper 784
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Working Paper 784 (September 2021)Luca Benati and Juan Pablo Nicolini
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Working Paper 778 (March 2021)Callum Jones, Mariano Kulish, and Juan Pablo Nicolini
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Working Paper 774 (December 2020)Mariano Kulish, Juan Pablo Nicolini, and Han GaoA substantially revised version of this paper is available as [Staff Report 633](https://doi.org/10.21034/sr.633). Published in: _Journal of International Economics_ (Vol. 154, article 104058, March 2025), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104058.
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Staff Report 614 (October 2020)Terry J. Fitzgerald, Callum Jones, Mariano Kulish, and Juan Pablo NicoliniThis is a substantially revised version of Working Paper 713, _Is There a Stable Relationship between Unemployment and Future Inflation? Evidence from U.S. Cities_, https://doi.org/10.21034/wp.713.
Published in: _American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics_ (Vol. 16, Iss 4, October 2024, pp. 114-142), https://www.doi.org/10.1257/mac.20220273. -
Staff Report 608 (July 2020)Carlos Esquivel, Timothy J. Kehoe, and Juan Pablo NicoliniThis paper was written as part of the Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin America Project sponsored by the Becker Friedman Institute at the University of Chicago. It is now a chapter in _A Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin America, 1960—2017_, edited by Timothy J. Kehoe and Juan Pablo Nicolini (University of Minnesota Press, 2021, pp. 537-565).
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Staff Report 607 (July 2020)Timothy J. Kehoe, Juan Pablo Nicolini, and Thomas J. SargentThis paper was written as part of the Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin America Project sponsored by the Becker Friedman Institute at the University of Chicago. It is now a chapter in _A Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin America, 1960—2017_, edited by Timothy J. Kehoe and Juan Pablo Nicolini (University of Minnesota Press, 2021, pp. 19-42).
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Working Paper 768 (May 2020)Han Gao and Juan Pablo Nicolini
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Staff Report 580 (December 2019)Francisco Buera and Juan Pablo Nicolini
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Working Paper 760 (August 2019)Manuel Macera, Albert Marcet, and Juan Pablo Nicolini
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Staff Report 587 (June 2019)Luca Benati, Robert E. Lucas, Jr., Juan Pablo Nicolini, and Warren E. WeberOnline appendix: [Staff Report 588](https://doi.org/10.21034/sr.588 "Online Appendix")
Data file: [LongRunMoneyDemandFinalDatabase.xls](https://researchdatabase.minneapolisfed.org/downloads/kk91fk69h "Data file")
An earlier version of this Staff Report circulated as [Working Paper 737](https://doi.org/10.21034/wp.737 "Working Paper 737").
Published in _Journal of Monetary Economics_ (vol. 117, January 2021, pp. 43-63), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.07.003. -
Staff Report 588 (June 2019)Luca Benati, Robert E. Lucas, Jr., Juan Pablo Nicolini, and Warren E. WeberData file: [LongRunMoneyDemandFinalDatabase.xls](https://researchdatabase.minneapolisfed.org/downloads/kk91fk69h "Data file")
Accompanying Staff Report published in _Journal of Monetary Economics_ (vol. 117, January 2021, pp. 43-63), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.07.003. -
Staff Report 584 (May 2019)Joao Ayres, Constantino Hevia, and Juan Pablo NicoliniPublished in _Journal of International Economics_ (January 2020, article 103261), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2019.103261.
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Staff Report 582 (April 2019)Juan Pablo Nicolini
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Working Paper 757 (April 2019)Joao Ayres, Gaston Navarro, Juan Pablo Nicolini, and Pedro TelesAn updated version of this paper was published as [Staff Report 659](https://doi.org/10.21034/sr.659).
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Staff Report 571 (September 2018)V. V. Chari, Juan Pablo Nicolini, and Pedro TelesThis is a revised version of [Working Paper 752](https://doi.org/10.21034/wp.752), which circulated with the same title.
Published in _Journal of Monetary Economics_ (Vol. 116, December 2020, pp. 147-165), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.09.015. -
Working Paper 752 (July 2018)V. V. Chari, Juan Pablo Nicolini, and Pedro TelesAn updated version of this paper is available as Staff Report 571: https://doi.org/10.21034/sr.571.
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Working Paper 745 (December 2017)V. V. Chari, Juan Pablo Nicolini, and Pedro Teles
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Working Paper 744 (November 2017)Constantino Hevia and Juan Pablo NicoliniPublished in: _Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control_ (89, April 2018, pp. 50-63) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2018.01.011.
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Working Paper 743 (November 2017)Joao Ayres, Constantino Hevia, and Juan Pablo NicoliniPublished in _Journal of International Economics_ (January 2020, article 103261), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2019.103261.
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Working Paper 738 (April 2017)Luca Benati, Robert E. Lucas, Jr., Juan Pablo Nicolini, and Warren E. WeberThis is the online appendix for [Working Paper 737: _International Evidence on Long-Run Money Demand_](https://researchdatabase.minneapolisfed.org/concern/publications/6t053g042 "Working Paper 737").
An updated version is available as [Staff Report 588](https://doi.org/10.21034/sr.588 "Staff Report 588"). -
Working Paper 737 (February 2017)Luca Benati, Robert E. Lucas, Jr., Juan Pablo Nicolini, and Warren E. Weber[Working Paper 738](https://doi.org/10.21034/wp.738 "Working Paper 738") is the online appendix for this paper.
An updated version of this paper is available as [Staff Report 587](https://doi.org/10.21034/sr.587 "Staff Report 587").
The updated version of this paper is published in _Journal of Monetary Economics_ (vol. 117, January 2021, pp. 43-63), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.07.003. -
Staff Report 541 (February 2017)Francisco Buera and Juan Pablo Nicolini[Staff Report 540: Liquidity Traps and Monetary Policy: Managing a Credit Crunch](http://researchdatabase.minneapolisfed.org/concern/publications/6q182k185?locale=en)
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Staff Report 540 (February 2017)Francisco Buera and Juan Pablo NicoliniPublished in _American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics_ (vol. 12, no. 3, July 2020, pp. 110-138), https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20170040.
An earlier version of this Staff Report circulated as [Working Paper 714](https://doi.org/10.21034/wp.714).
[Online Appendix](http://researchdatabase.minneapolisfed.org/concern/publications/v692t625q) -
Working Paper 718 (September 2015)Robert E. Lucas, Jr. and Juan Pablo Nicolini[Related data set](https://researchdatabase.minneapolisfed.org/concern/datasets/xp68kg22w).
Published in: _Journal of Monetary Economics_ (Vol. 73, July 2015, pp. 48-65), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2015.03.005. -
Working Paper 726 (June 2015)Constantino Hevia and Juan Pablo NicoliniPublished in: _Series in Central Banking of the Central Bank of Chile_ (Vol. 22, Chapter 2, 2016, pp. 51-90)
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Working Paper 723 (April 2015)Juan Pablo Nicolini, Pedro Teles, Joao Ayres, and Gaston NavarroPublished in: _Journal of Economic Theory_ (Vol. 175, May 2018, pp. 803-812), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2018.02.006.
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Working Paper 720 (February 2015)Klaus Adam, Albert Marcet, and Juan Pablo NicoliniPublished in: _Journal of Finance_ (Vol. 71, No. 1, February 2016, pp. 33-82), https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12364.
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Working Paper 714 (July 2014)Francisco Buera and Juan Pablo NicoliniPublished in _American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics_ (vol. 12, no. 3, July 2020, pp. 110-138), https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20170040.
An updated version of this paper is available as [Staff Report 540](https://doi.org/10.21034/sr.540). -
Working Paper 713 (May 2014)Juan Pablo Nicolini and Terry J. Fitzgerald[Additional files](https://researchdatabase.minneapolisfed.org/downloads/vm40xr61f)
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Working Paper 702 (February 2013)Juan Pablo Nicolini and Constantino HeviaPublished in: _IMF Economic Review_ (Vol. 61, 2013, pp. 22-51), https://doi.org/10.1057/imfer.2013.2.
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Working Paper 698 (August 2012)Isabel Correia, Juan Pablo Nicolini, Pedro Teles, and Emmanuel FarhiPublished in: _American Economic Review_ (Vol. 103, No. 4, June 2013), https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.103.4.1172.
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Staff Report 467 (July 2012)Juan Pablo Nicolini, Pedro Teles, and Ramon MarimonPublished in: _Journal of Monetary Economics_ (Vol. 59, Issue 8, December 2012, pp. 815-825) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2012.10.006.
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Staff Report 403 (April 2008)Isabel Correia, Juan Pablo Nicolini, and Pedro TelesPublished in: _Journal of Political Economy_ (Vol. 116, Issue 1, February 2008, pp. 141) https://doi.org/10.1086/533504.
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Discussion Paper 122 (August 1997)Juan Pablo Nicolini, Pedro Teles, and Ramon Marimon
Is There a Stable Relationship between Unemployment and Future Inflation?
Forthcoming | American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics | With Terry Fitzgerald, Callum Jones, and Mariano Kulish
Previously: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Staff Report 614
Optimal Cooperative Taxation in the Global Economy
2023 | Journal of Political Economy, 131(1): 95-130 | With V. V. Chari and Pedro Teles
Previously: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Staff Report 581
International Evidence on Long-Run Money Demand
2021 | Journal of Monetary Economics, 117: 43-63 | With Luca Benati, Robert E. Lucas Jr., and Warren E. Weber
Previously: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Staff Report 587
Previously: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Working Paper 737
Optimal Capital Taxation Revisited
2020 | Journal of Monetary Economics, 116: 147-165 | With V. V. Chari and Pedro Teles
Previously: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Staff Report 571
Previously: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Working Paper 752
Liquidity Traps and Monetary Policy: Managing a Credit Crunch
2020 | American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 12(3): 110-138 | With Francisco Buera
Previously: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Staff Report 540
Real Exchange Rates and Primary Commodity Prices
2020 | Journal of International Economics, 122 | With Joao Ayres and Constantino Hevia
Previously: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Staff Report 584
Sovereign Default: The Role of Expectations
2018 | Journal of Economic Theory, 175: 803-812 | With João Ayres. Gaston Navarro, and Pedro Teles
Previously: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Working Paper 723
Monitoring Money for Price Stability
2018 | Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 89: 50-63 | With Constantino Hevia
Previously: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Working Paper 744
Stock Market Volatility and Learning
2016 | Journal of Finance, 71(1): 33-82 | With Klaus Adam and Albert Marcet
Previously: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Working Paper 720
On the Stability of Money Demand
2015 | Journal of Monetary Economics, 75: 48-65 | With Robert E. Lucas, Jr.
Previously: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Working Paper 718
Data files
Politica Monetaria y la Enfermedad Holandesa: Rigidez de Precios y de Salarios. (Monetary Policy and Dutch Disease: The Case of Price and Wage Rigidity. With English summary.)
2015 | Economia Chilena, 18(2): 28-60 | With Constantino Hevia
Previously: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Working Paper 726
Unconventional Fiscal Policy at the Zero Bound
2013 | American Economic Review, 103(4): 1172-1211 | With Isabel Correia, Emmanuel Farhi and Pedro Teles
Previously: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Working Paper 698
Optimal Devaluations
2013 | IMF Economic Review, 61(1): 22-51 | With Constantino Hevia
Previously: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Working Paper 702
Money is an Experience Good: Competition and Trust in the Private Provision of Money
2012 | Journal of Monetary Economics, 59(8): 815-825 | With Ramon Marimon and Pedro Teles
Previously: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Staff Report 467
The Argentine Economy After Two Centuries
2011 | Latin American Journal of Economics, 48(2): 133-156 | With Francisco Buera and Gastón Navarro
Optimal Unemployment Insurance and Employment History
2009 | Review of Economic Studies, 76(3): 1049-1070 | With Hugo A. Hopenhayn
Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy: Equivalence Results
2008 | Journal of Political Economy, 116(1): 141-170 | With Isabel Correia and Pedro Teles
Previously: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Staff Report 403
Money and Prices in Models of Bounded Rationality in High-Inflation Economies
2005 | Review of Economic Dynamics, 8(2): 452-479 | With Albert Marcet
Optimal Maturity of Government Debt without State Contingent Bonds
2004 | Journal of Monetary Economics, 51(3): 531-554 | With Francisco Buera
Recurrent Hyperinflations and Learning
2003 | American Economic Review, 93(5): 1476-1498 | With Albert Marcet
Inside-Outside Money Competition
2003 | Journal of Monetary Economics, 50(8): 1701-1718 | With Ramon Marimon and Pedro Teles
Previously: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Working Paper 2003-09
More on the Time Consistency of Monetary Policy
1998 | Journal of Monetary Economics, 41(2): 333-350
Tax Evasion and the Optimal Inflation Tax
1998 | Journal of Development Economics, 55(1): 215-232
Los Spreads de tasas de interes en la Argentina
1998 | Desarrollo Economico, 38 (Special Issue): 231-245 | With Francisco BueraOptimal Unemployment Insurance
1997 | Journal of Political Economy, 105(2): 412-438 | With Hugo A. Hopenhayn
La reforma del seguro de desempleo en Espana: Hay algo que aprender de la teoria?
1997 | Moneda y Credito, 204: 263-294 | With Hugo A. HopenhaynRuling Out Speculative Hyperinflations: The Role of the Government
1996 | Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 20(5): 791-809