Thomas J. Sargent has been affiliated with the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis for over forty years. In 2011 he was awarded the 2011 Nobel Prize in Economics, joint with Princeton University’s Christopher Sims, for their “empirical research on cause and effect in the macroeconomy.”
Tom has held teaching positions at the University of Pennsylvania (1970–1971), the University of Minnesota (1971–1987), the University of Chicago (1991–1998), Stanford University (1998–2002), and Princeton University (2009). In September 2002 he became New York University’s first William R. Berkley Professor of Economics and Business. He has been a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution since 1987 and has served as president of the Econometric Society, the American Economic Association, and the Society for Economic Dynamics.
He earned his B.A. from the University of California, Berkeley, in 1964, where he was deemed Most Distinguished Scholar in the Class of 1964. His Ph.D. is from Harvard, and he won the Erwin Plein Nemmers Prize in Economics from Northwestern University in 1997. In 1983 he was elected a fellow of the National Academy of Sciences as well as a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.
Tom’s work focuses primarily on macroeconomics, monetary economics, and time series econometrics. He is recognized as one of the leaders of the “rational expectations revolution,” a term used to describe “the many economic situations in which the outcome depends partly on what people expect to happen” (Sargent, Concise Encyclopedia of Economics, s.v. “Rational Expectations”). Sargent’s many distinguished works include Rational Expectations and Econometric Practice (with Robert E. Lucas Jr.), The Big Problem of Small Change (with François Velde), Recursive Macroeconomic Theory (with Lars Ljungqvist), and Robustness (with Lars Peter Hansen).
Content by Thomas
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Quarterly Review 4511 | May 2025 (Vol. 45 No. 1)
Thomas J. Sargent and Ziyue Yang
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Quarterly Review 4312 | November 2023 (Vol. 43 No. 1)
Thomas J. Sargent
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Staff Report 607 (July 2020)
Timothy J. Kehoe, Juan Pablo Nicolini, and Thomas J. Sargent
This paper was written as part of the Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin America Project sponsored by the Becker Friedman Institute at the University of Chicago. It is now a chapter in A Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin America, 1960—2017, edited by Timothy J. Kehoe and Juan Pablo Nicolini (University of Minnesota Press, 2021, pp. 19-42).
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Staff Report 599 (April 2020)
Marco Bassetto and Thomas J. Sargent
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Staff Report 198 (September 1995)
Ellen R. McGrattan, Evan W. Anderson, Lars Peter Hansen, and Thomas J. Sargent
Published in: Handbook of Computational Economics (Vol. 1, 1996, pp. 171-252) https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-0021(96)01006-4.
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Staff Report 182 (September 1994)
Ellen R. McGrattan, Lars Peter Hansen, and Thomas J. Sargent
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Discussion Paper 77 (November 1992)
Danny Quah and Thomas J. Sargent
Published In: Business cycles, indicators, and forecasting (1993, pp. 285-306)
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Working Paper 224 (November 1988)
Thomas J. Sargent
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Working Paper 293 (January 1986)
Thomas J. Sargent
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Working Paper 30 (December 1985)
Thomas J. Sargent
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Working Paper 280 (April 1985)Identification and Estimation of a Model of Hyperinflation With a Continuum of "Sunspot" Equilibrium
Neil Wallace and Thomas J. Sargent
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Quarterly Review 913 | Winter 1985 (Vol. 9 No. 1)
Thomas J. Sargent and Neil Wallace
Published In: The Theory of Inflation (1994, pp. 291-307).
Published In: The Rational Expectations Revolution: Readings From the Front Line (1994, pp. 103-129).
Published In: The New Classical Macroeconomics (Vol. 1, 1992, pp. 324-340).
Published In: The Foundations of Monetary Economics (Vol. 3, 1999, pp. 321-337).
Published In: Fiscal and Monetary Policy (Vol. 1, 1995, pp. 285-301).
Published In: Monetarism in the United Kingdom (1984, pp. 15-41). -
Quarterly Review 915 | Winter 1985 (Vol. 9 No. 1)
Preston J. Miller and Thomas J. Sargent
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Working Paper 211 (October 1984)
Thomas J. Sargent and Neil Wallace
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Working Paper 227 (September 1984)
Thomas J. Sargent and Lars Peter Hansen
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Quarterly Review 823 | Spring 1984 (Vol. 8 No. 2)
Preston J. Miller and Thomas J. Sargent
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Working Paper 125 (April 1984)
Thomas J. Sargent and Robert B. Litterman
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Working Paper 238 (March 1984)
Thomas J. Sargent
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Quarterly Review 742 | Fall 1983 (Vol. 7 No. 4)
Neil Wallace, David T. Beers, and Thomas J. Sargent
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Working Paper 241 (September 1983)
Thomas J. Sargent and Neil Wallace
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Staff Report 73 (March 1983)
Lars Peter Hansen and Thomas J. Sargent
Published in: Rational expectations econometrics (1991, pp. 219-235)
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Staff Report 85 (January 1983)
Neil Wallace and Thomas J. Sargent
Published in: Journal of Monetary Economics (Vol. 12, No. 1, July 1983, pp. 163-187) https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(83)90055-7.
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Working Paper 229 (November 1982)
Thomas J. Sargent
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Working Paper 214 (September 1982)
Thomas J. Sargent and Neil Wallace
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Staff Report 77 (February 1982)
Thomas J. Sargent
Published in: American Economic Review (Vol. 72, No. 2, May 1982, pp. 383-389)
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Working Paper 192 (January 1982)
Thomas J. Sargent and Neil Wallace
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Quarterly Review 531 | Fall 1981 (Vol. 5 No. 3)
Neil Wallace and Thomas J. Sargent
Published In: The Theory of Inflation (1994, pp. 291-307).
Published In: Monetarism in the United Kingdom (1984, pp. 15-41).
Published In: The New Classical Macroeconomics (Vol. 1, 1992, pp. 324-340).
Published In: The Foundations of Monetary Economics (Vol. 3, 1999, pp. 321-337).
Published In: Fiscal and Monetary Policy (Vol. 1, 1995, pp. 285-301).
Published In: The Rational Expectations Revolution: Readings From the Front Line (1994, pp. 103-129). -
Staff Report 75 (October 1981)
Lars Peter Hansen and Thomas J. Sargent
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Staff Report 69 (September 1981)
Lars Peter Hansen and Thomas J. Sargent
Published in: Economics Letters (Vol. 8, No. 3, 1981, pp. 255-260) https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1765(81)90075-6.
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Staff Report 74 (September 1981)
Lars Peter Hansen and Thomas J. Sargent
Published in: International Economic Review (Vol. 24, No. 1, February 1983, pp. 1-20) https://doi.org/10.2307/2526112.
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Staff Report 70 (September 1981)
Lars Peter Hansen and Thomas J. Sargent
Published in: Journal of Monetary Economics (Vol. 9, No. 3, May 1982, pp. 263-296) https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(82)90020-4.
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Staff Report 71 (September 1981)
Lars Peter Hansen and Thomas J. Sargent
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Staff Report 72 (September 1981)
Lars Peter Hansen and Thomas J. Sargent
Published in: Econometrica (Vol. 51, No. 2, March 1983, pp. 377-387) https://doi.org/10.2307/1911996.
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Working Paper (May 1981)
Thomas J. Sargent
Published in Rational Expectations and Inflation (2013, 3rd ed.), Chapter 4, https://doi.org/10.23943/princeton/9780691158709.003.0004.
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Working Paper 158 (May 1981)
Thomas J. Sargent
Published in: Inflation: Causes and Effects Robert E. Hall, Ed., (1982, pp. 41-99), https://www.nber.org/chapters/c11452.
Published in: Rational Expectations and Inflation (2013, 3rd Edition, Chapter 3), https://doi.org/10.23943/princeton/9780691158709.003.0003.
Published in: The Theory of Inflation Michael Parkin, Ed., (1994, Part V, Chapter 13, pp. 433-489). -
Working Paper 170 (April 1981)
Thomas J. Sargent
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Staff Report 64 (January 1981)
Neil Wallace and Thomas J. Sargent
Published in: Journal of Political Economy (Vol. 90, No. 6, December 1982, pp. 1212-1236) https://doi.org/10.1086/261118.
Published in: The new classical macroeconomics (Vol. 2, 1992, pp. 440-464)
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Quarterly Review 434 | Summer 1980 (Vol. 4 No. 3)
Thomas J. Sargent
Published In: The Rational Expectations Revolution: Readings From the Front Line (1994, pp. 31-39).
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Working Paper 157 (July 1980)
Thomas J. Sargent and Lars Peter Hansen
Published in International Economic Review (Vol. 24, No. 1, February 1983, pp. 1-20), https://doi.org/10.2307/2526112.
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Staff Report 60 (May 1980)
Lars Peter Hansen and Thomas J. Sargent
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Staff Report 58 (April 1980)
Thomas J. Sargent
Published in: The legacy of Robert Lucas, Jr. (Vol. 2, 1999, pp. 370-405)
Published in: The reappraisal of econometrics (1997, pp. 3-38)
Published in: The new classical macroeconomics (Vol. 2, 1992, pp. 61-96)
Published in: Journal of Political Economy (Vol. 89, No. 2, April 1981, pp. 213-248) https://doi.org/10.1086/260963.
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Staff Report 59 (April 1980)
Lars Peter Hansen and Thomas J. Sargent
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Working Paper 135 (January 1980)
Lars Peter Hansen and Thomas J. Sargent
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Working Paper 147 (January 1980)
Thomas J. Sargent
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Working Paper 127 (November 1979)
Lars Peter Hansen and Thomas J. Sargent
Published in: The Legacy of Robert Lucas, Jr. Kevin D. Hoover, Ed., (Vol. 2, 1999, pp. 330-369).
Published in: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (Vol. 2, 1980, pp. 7-46), https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1889(80)90049-4. -
Quarterly Review 333 | Summer 1979 (Vol. 3 No. 3)
Thomas J. Sargent
Published In: Time Series Models, Causality and Exogeneity (1997, pp. 272-279).
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Quarterly Review 321 | Spring 1979 (Vol. 3 No. 2)
Robert E. Lucas, Jr. and Thomas J. Sargent
Published In: Current Readings on Money, Banking, and Financial Markets (1987, pp. 252-267).
Originally published as "After Keynesian Macroeconomics" by Robert E. Lucas and Thomas J. Sargent, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review (Spring 1979). This article is an edited version of a paper prepared for a conference by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and published in Conference Series No. 19, After the Phillips Curve: Persistence of High Inflation and High Unemployment (June 1978), by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. Reprinted by the joint permission of the Federal Reserve Banks of Minneapolis and Boston.
Published In: The Rational Expectations Revolution: Readings From the Front Line (1994, pp. 5-30).
Published In: A Macroeconomics Reader, Brian Snowdon and Howard Vane, Eds. (1997, ch. 11, pp. 270-294), https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203443965. -
Staff Report 40 (April 1979)
Thomas J. Sargent
Published in: Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy (Vol. 12, 1980, pp. 107-154) https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-2231(80)90024-X.
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Working Paper 108 (June 1978)
Thomas J. Sargent
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Staff Report 27 (April 1978)
Thomas J. Sargent
Published in: Labor economics (Vol. 1, 1995, pp. 209-244)
Published in: Dynamic labor demand and adjustment costs (1992, pp. 106-141)
Published in: Journal of Political Economy (Vol. 86, No. 6, December 1978, pp. 1009-1044) https://doi.org/10.1086/260726.
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Staff Report 26 (January 1978)
Thomas J. Sargent
Published in: Journal of Monetary Economics (Vol. 5, No. 1, January 1979, pp. 133-143) https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(79)90029-1.
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Working Paper 101 (October 1977)
Thomas J. Sargent
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Staff Report 25 (September 1977)
Thomas J. Sargent
Published in: Journal of Political Economy (Vol. 86, No. 4, August 1978, pp. 673-700) https://doi.org/10.1086/260704.
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Working Paper 93 (September 1977)
Thomas J. Sargent
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Working Paper 66 (February 1977)
Thomas J. Sargent
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Working Paper 55 (January 1977)
Christopher A. Sims and Thomas J. Sargent
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Working Paper 67 (September 1976)
Thomas J. Sargent
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Working Paper 64 (July 1976)
Thomas J. Sargent
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Working Paper 53 (May 1976)Observations on Improper Methods of Simulating and Teaching Friedman's Time Series Consumption Model
Thomas J. Sargent
Published in: International Economic Review (Vol. 18, No. 2, June 1977, pp. 445-462), https://doi.org/10.2307/2525758.
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Working Paper 58 (May 1976)
Rusdu Saracoglu and Thomas J. Sargent
Published in: Journal of Monetary Economics (Vol. 4, No. 3, August 1978, pp. 435-458), https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(78)90041-7.
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Working Paper 54 (March 1976)
Thomas J. Sargent
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Working Paper 60 (February 1976)
Thomas J. Sargent
Published in: International Economic Review (Vol. 20, No. 3, October 1979, pp. 741-758), https://doi.org/10.2307/2525769.
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Working Paper 43 (February 1976)
Thomas J. Sargent
Published in International Economic Review (Vol. 18, No. 1, February 1977, pp. 59-82), https://doi.org/10.2307/2525769.
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Working Paper 79 (February 1976)
Thomas J. Sargent
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Working Paper 78 (January 1976)
Thomas J. Sargent
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Working Paper 83 (November 1975)
Salih Neftci and Thomas J. Sargent
Published in: Journal of Monetary Economics (Vol. 4, No. 2, April 1978, pp. 315-319), https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(78)90009-0.
Published in: The Legacy of Robert Lucas, Jr., Kevin D. Hoover, Ed., (Vol. 2, 1999, pp. 424-428) -
Working Paper 48 (September 1975)
Thomas J. Sargent
Published in: Recent Developments in Macroeconomics (Vol. 2, 1991, pp. 111-120).
Published in: Journal of Political Economy (Vol. 84, No. 3, June 1976, pp. 631-640), https://doi.org/10.1086/260465. -
Working Paper 22 (September 1975)
Thomas J. Sargent
Published in Journal of Political Economy (Vol. 84, No. 2, April 1976, pp. 207-238), https://www.jstor.org/stable/1831898.
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Working Paper 41 (May 1975)
Thomas J. Sargent
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Working Paper 23 (March 1975)
Thomas J. Sargent
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Working Paper 21 (January 1975)
Thomas J. Sargent
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Working Paper 29 (August 1974)
Neil Wallace and Thomas J. Sargent
Published in The New Classical Macroeconomics (Vol. 1, 1992, pp. 275-289).
Published in Essential Readings in Economics, Saul Estrin, Alan Marin, Eds. (1995, pp. 366-382).
Published in Journal of Monetary Economics (Vol. 2, Iss. 2, April 1976, pp. 169-183), https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(76)90032-5.
Published in Economic Policy (Vol. 1, 1998, pp. 301-315).
Published in The Foundations of Monetary Economics (Vol. 3, 1999, pp. 223-237). -
Working Paper 26 (July 1974)
Dale W. Henderson and Thomas J. Sargent
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Working Paper 27 (July 1974)
Thomas J. Sargent
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Working Paper 25 (April 1974)
Thomas J. Sargent and Neil Wallace
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Working Paper 28 (March 1974)
Thomas J. Sargent
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Working Paper 32 (March 1974)
Thomas J. Sargent
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Working Paper 31 (February 1974)
Thomas J. Sargent
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Working Paper 75 (August 1971)
Thomas J. Sargent
Published in: Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking (Vol. 5, No. 1, Part 2: The Universities--National Bureau Conference on Secular Stagnation, February 1973, pp. 385-449), https://doi.org/10.2307/1991332.